Papaswamp's Comments Papaswamp's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/491038/comments Johnson & Johnson's Invokana: Be Careful http://seekingalpha.com/article/1311981/comments?source=feed#comment-17093401 17093401 Mon, 01 Apr 2013 20:18:32 -0400 Initial Jobless Claims: +20K to 362K vs. 359K consensus, 342K prior (revised). Continuing claims +11K to 3.14M. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/842121?source=feed#comment-15308641 15308641 Thu, 21 Feb 2013 09:54:49 -0500 Dec. International Trade: The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services -$38.5B vs. consensus of -$46.0B, $48.6B (revised) in Nov. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/815341?source=feed#comment-14744461 14744461
While the drop in the deficit was much larger than the consensus expected, it was not far off from what the BEA assumed in the fourth quarter advance GDP data. The BEA anticipated that, excluding nonmonetary gold, the trade balance would fall to roughly -$40.0 bln. According to the actual data, the trade deficit excluding gold dropped to $41.0 bln. That means the huge “surprise” in the trade data will not result in an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP and may actually contribute more to the contraction."

"It is likely that it was due to the week-long strike in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports that occurred after Thanksgiving. That delayed some shipments that normally would have been made in December into January."

Read more: http://bit.ly/UKpVwn ]]> Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:16:21 -0500
While the drop in the deficit was much larger than the consensus expected, it was not far off from what the BEA assumed in the fourth quarter advance GDP data. The BEA anticipated that, excluding nonmonetary gold, the trade balance would fall to roughly -$40.0 bln. According to the actual data, the trade deficit excluding gold dropped to $41.0 bln. That means the huge “surprise” in the trade data will not result in an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP and may actually contribute more to the contraction."

"It is likely that it was due to the week-long strike in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports that occurred after Thanksgiving. That delayed some shipments that normally would have been made in December into January."

Read more: http://bit.ly/UKpVwn ]]> Initial Jobless Claims: 366K vs. 360K consensus, 368K prior. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/811741?source=feed#comment-14712181 14712181 http://bit.ly/YX5y0f

This is after massive intervention by the govt and fed that is still continuing. ]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:42:55 -0500 http://bit.ly/YX5y0f

This is after massive intervention by the govt and fed that is still continuing. ]]> Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/804801?source=feed#comment-14605151 14605151 True, that can be said for any country that prints its own money. Devaluing the currency though tends to have a rather negative impact allowed to go on too long. Commodities are already experiencing inflation. Economic growth via debt creation doesn't work for very long.]]> Tue, 05 Feb 2013 14:24:22 -0500 True, that can be said for any country that prints its own money. Devaluing the currency though tends to have a rather negative impact allowed to go on too long. Commodities are already experiencing inflation. Economic growth via debt creation doesn't work for very long.]]> Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/804801?source=feed#comment-14593361 14593361 Tue, 05 Feb 2013 11:38:27 -0500 Strong Job Growth And Upward Revisions Contrast Sharply With Reported GDP Decrease http://seekingalpha.com/article/1151101/comments?source=feed#comment-14563661 14563661 http://bit.ly/IjfFQX

16-65 men:
http://bit.ly/IjfDZf

16-65 women:
http://bit.ly/IjfDZj]]> Mon, 04 Feb 2013 19:41:40 -0500 http://bit.ly/IjfFQX

16-65 men:
http://bit.ly/IjfDZf

16-65 women:
http://bit.ly/IjfDZj]]> While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear"  economist David Rosenberg sees "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time." While the car is in the middle of the road right now, "is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?" http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/800141?source=feed#comment-14504051 14504051 Sun, 03 Feb 2013 09:06:31 -0500 January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/798471?source=feed#comment-14477301 14477301 Notice the bottoming trend:
http://bit.ly/Xeyry2
Higher bottom each time...and we seem to be approaching that again.
Just ask yourself if you think we are getting a good return for the amount of debt we are piling on. Due to the amount of debt, the Fed can not allow interest rates to rise, we have painted ourselves into a corner.]]> Sat, 02 Feb 2013 08:00:31 -0500 Notice the bottoming trend:
http://bit.ly/Xeyry2
Higher bottom each time...and we seem to be approaching that again.
Just ask yourself if you think we are getting a good return for the amount of debt we are piling on. Due to the amount of debt, the Fed can not allow interest rates to rise, we have painted ourselves into a corner.]]> January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/798471?source=feed#comment-14477091 14477091 Sat, 02 Feb 2013 07:48:47 -0500 January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/798471?source=feed#comment-14476961 14476961 The employment to population ratio is now flat Y/Y:
http://1.usa.gov/pLdc0Y
..and Not In Labor Force continues to rise:
http://1.usa.gov/11xOOIS

..There is increased support demand (those not working) on the workforce. Additionally, the quality of new jobs seems to be rather weak, with temp and part time accounting for an ever growing number of jobs.
http://bit.ly/VB682B

$Trillions thrown at the economy and this is where we are...treading water in very weak condition.]]> Sat, 02 Feb 2013 07:40:28 -0500 The employment to population ratio is now flat Y/Y:
http://1.usa.gov/pLdc0Y
..and Not In Labor Force continues to rise:
http://1.usa.gov/11xOOIS

..There is increased support demand (those not working) on the workforce. Additionally, the quality of new jobs seems to be rather weak, with temp and part time accounting for an ever growing number of jobs.
http://bit.ly/VB682B

$Trillions thrown at the economy and this is where we are...treading water in very weak condition.]]> January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/798471?source=feed#comment-14469551 14469551
110.9 Million private in Jan vs 113.3 million in Dec.. That is a big drop. We are treading water after literally $trillions thrown at the economy. ]]> Fri, 01 Feb 2013 20:20:47 -0500
110.9 Million private in Jan vs 113.3 million in Dec.. That is a big drop. We are treading water after literally $trillions thrown at the economy. ]]> Jobs And Manufacturing Point To Continued Growth http://seekingalpha.com/article/1151031/comments?source=feed#comment-14469401 14469401 Fri, 01 Feb 2013 20:15:26 -0500 Strong Job Growth And Upward Revisions Contrast Sharply With Reported GDP Decrease http://seekingalpha.com/article/1151101/comments?source=feed#comment-14469251 14469251 look at table A-9 down at the bottom under full and part time employment...both dropped dramatically.]]> Fri, 01 Feb 2013 20:07:11 -0500 look at table A-9 down at the bottom under full and part time employment...both dropped dramatically.]]> Get Ready For Stagflation http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145741/comments?source=feed#comment-14424821 14424821 GDP declined despite the government spending $30 Billion more than Q3 and running a +$320 Billion in new debt. Forced low interest rates and government backed loans (90% of all new non- revolving loans are govt backed) seem to be all keeping the consumer on their feet. If lump SS payments and bonuses brought forward are the driver for a 0.2% rise in spending...we are in serious trouble. ]]> Thu, 31 Jan 2013 16:47:14 -0500 GDP declined despite the government spending $30 Billion more than Q3 and running a +$320 Billion in new debt. Forced low interest rates and government backed loans (90% of all new non- revolving loans are govt backed) seem to be all keeping the consumer on their feet. If lump SS payments and bonuses brought forward are the driver for a 0.2% rise in spending...we are in serious trouble. ]]> Get Ready For Stagflation http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145741/comments?source=feed#comment-14394821 14394821 http://bit.ly/I8JC4K

Fewer work age people are participating.
http://bit.ly/YkUiqk

http://bit.ly/12bPVCK]]> Thu, 31 Jan 2013 07:07:43 -0500 http://bit.ly/I8JC4K

Fewer work age people are participating.
http://bit.ly/YkUiqk

http://bit.ly/12bPVCK]]> Celebrating Negative Growth http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145961/comments?source=feed#comment-14394691 14394691 Thu, 31 Jan 2013 06:57:09 -0500 ADP: January Payrolls Climb The Most In 11 Months http://seekingalpha.com/article/1143701/comments?source=feed#comment-14381021 14381021 Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:54:00 -0500 Visualizing GDP: Some Anomalies In The Q4 Advance Estimate http://seekingalpha.com/article/1144581/comments?source=feed#comment-14380091 14380091 Wonder were that money went.....]]> Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:41:34 -0500 Wonder were that money went.....]]> GDP Q4 Advance Estimate At -0.1%: A Shocking Slip Into Contraction http://seekingalpha.com/article/1144291/comments?source=feed#comment-14379921 14379921 Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:37:09 -0500 It's Getting Hard To Be A Gold Bull These Days http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135811/comments?source=feed#comment-14261301 14261301 Mon, 28 Jan 2013 12:24:48 -0500 Dec. Durable Goods: +4.6% vs. +1.6% expected, +0.7% prior. Ex-transport +1.3% vs. +0.4% expected, +1.6% prior . http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/785051?source=feed#comment-14254211 14254211 Mon, 28 Jan 2013 10:10:49 -0500 Overseas: Japan -0.94%. Hong Kong +0.39%. China +2.41%. India -0.01%. London +0.01%. Paris +0.08%. Frankfurt +0.03%. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/784701?source=feed#comment-14248691 14248691 Are we seeing more busy construction work to keep the people employed and busy even though there really isn't any demand?]]> Mon, 28 Jan 2013 08:30:16 -0500 Are we seeing more busy construction work to keep the people employed and busy even though there really isn't any demand?]]> As many as 353 coal-fired electricity units could be retired as the costs of installing pollution controls on those plants won’t let them compete with cheaper natural gas and wind power, the Union of Concerned Scientists said in a report released today. Such a move would be warranted, the group says, because those rarely used plants have already outlived their 30-year lifespan and generate the most emissions of harmful pollutants and greenhouse gases. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/663121?source=feed#comment-11572261 11572261 Tue, 13 Nov 2012 19:56:49 -0500 The fiscal cliff matters: Even if the financial consequences aren't that severe, Josh Brown argues the mere perception of falling off the cliff would seriously harm financial markets. But if the fiscal cliff actually gets fixed, Jamie Dimon thinks the U.S. economy would boom, since the top problem holding it back is the looming tax increases and spending cuts that would kick in at year-end. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/657191?source=feed#comment-11471331 11471331 Sun, 11 Nov 2012 05:36:03 -0500 The payroll tax holiday will not be extended, according to JPMorgan, reducing U.S. disposable income next year by $125B and causing a significant contraction in the economy. So there's 0.6% knocked off next year's GDP growth, and we haven't got to the Bush tax cuts. (h/t David Schawel) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/654101?source=feed#comment-11392741 11392741 You can point fingers all you want, but the spending regime, along with extending the tax cuts every year during his 4 yrs falls to Obama. He has continued or accelerated most of the previous administrations policies.
Bush was a lousy president, but I sure don't see any improvement in the present one.]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 17:55:15 -0500 You can point fingers all you want, but the spending regime, along with extending the tax cuts every year during his 4 yrs falls to Obama. He has continued or accelerated most of the previous administrations policies.
Bush was a lousy president, but I sure don't see any improvement in the present one.]]> The payroll tax holiday will not be extended, according to JPMorgan, reducing U.S. disposable income next year by $125B and causing a significant contraction in the economy. So there's 0.6% knocked off next year's GDP growth, and we haven't got to the Bush tax cuts. (h/t David Schawel) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/654101?source=feed#comment-11391751 11391751 Bush tax cuts for the wealthy equated to $40 Billion decrease per year in revenue. The tax cuts for everyone equated to ~$360 Billion decrease per year. Notice deficit spending is in excess of $1 Trillion. Thus if the tax cuts for everyone expired we would still be in deficit/debt.

Just wait and see what happens when 2013 rolls around and payroll taxes kick in, tax cuts expire (for anyone) and the HC tax hits individuals and businesses. Q1 2013 is going to be brutal.]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 17:27:56 -0500 Bush tax cuts for the wealthy equated to $40 Billion decrease per year in revenue. The tax cuts for everyone equated to ~$360 Billion decrease per year. Notice deficit spending is in excess of $1 Trillion. Thus if the tax cuts for everyone expired we would still be in deficit/debt.

Just wait and see what happens when 2013 rolls around and payroll taxes kick in, tax cuts expire (for anyone) and the HC tax hits individuals and businesses. Q1 2013 is going to be brutal.]]> Initial Jobless Claims: -8K to 355K vs. 370K consensus, 363K prior. Continuing claims -135K to 3.12M. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/651861?source=feed#comment-11391371 11391371 Thu, 08 Nov 2012 17:20:50 -0500 Initial Jobless Claims: -9K to 363K vs. 369K consensus, 369K prior. Continuing claims +4K to 3.26M. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/630281?source=feed#comment-11121631 11121631 Thu, 01 Nov 2012 10:41:58 -0400 GDP Q3 (1st estimate): +2.0% vs. +1.9% consensus, +1.3% previous. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/616211?source=feed#comment-10926101 10926101 Fri, 26 Oct 2012 08:43:03 -0400