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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • GE (GE -2.4%) says credit losses at its GE Capital unit are expected to peak next year, ensuring flat earnings but paving the way for improvement in 2011. Unit chief Mike Neal was confident that regulators wouldn't force the disposal of the business, though GE has been shrinking it and its real-estate assets are under heavy pressure.  [View news story]
    GE speak for things are about to get ugly?
    Dec 8, 2009. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold vs. the Dollar: Paper Still Beats Rock [View article]
    The US dollar is backed by at least a double layer of debt. The US is in debt and many of those buying our debt (ex. UK and Japan) are themselves deeply in debt. The manipulation makes ponzi schemes look almost legal.
    Dec 8, 2009. 12:29 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail, Credit Data May Move Markets [View article]
    Wow this was released late...

    ICSC -1.3% week to week
    Redbook a whooping -5.2% W/W
    Dec 8, 2009. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • House flipping is back.  [View news story]
    Brilliant!....that didn't take long.
    Dec 8, 2009. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Calls U.S. Recovery 'Fragile' [View article]
    "We finally got the one data point that we have been hoping for, even praying for, for two years, nonfarm payroll job losses near zero."

    Why do people insist job losses are near zero? Did you really read the report, or just parroting the BLS?

    Civilian Labor force (total employed and unemployed):
    Sept Oct Nov
    154.0 mil 153.9 mil 153.8 mil (shrinking month to month)
    Sept-Nov Size of labor force decreased by ~ 200,000

    Not in Labor force (NILF) no longer counted
    Totals:
    Sept Oct Nov
    82.3 mil 82.5 mil 82.8 mil (growing month to month)
    Sept-Nov NILF increased by ~ 500,000

    Fewer unemployed are counted...they are dropped from the rate, thus it 'appears' unemployment is going down, when in reality these people are discarded.


    Job openings...just released....
    Over the 12 months ending in October, the job openings rate (not
    seasonally adjusted) decreased for total nonfarm, total private, and
    government. The job openings rate also decreased in many industries:
    mining and logging; durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods
    manufacturing; retail trade; transportation, warehousing, and
    utilities; information; educational services; health care and social
    assistance; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and
    food services; and state and local government. The job openings rate
    decreased in 3 of the 4 regions—Midwest, Northeast, and South.

    Employment FACTS:
    Job openings decreased.
    Labor force continues to shrink in size (-200,000 in 3 months).
    Not in Labor Force continues to rise (NILF +500,000).
    Dec 8, 2009. 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facing political pressure to abandon fair-value accounting for banks, FASB's chairman will call today for the "decoupling" of bank capital rules from normal accounting standards, so that regulators can adjust rules in realtime: "Handcuffing regulators to GAAP or distorting GAAP to always fit the needs of regulators is inconsistent with the different purposes of financial reporting and prudential regulation."  [View news story]
    Banks to use their own judgement?....wowza
    Dec 8, 2009. 09:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock and commodity futures are under significant pressure as a relatively quiet overnight session turns volatile. Dow -0.9% to 10295. S&P -1% to 1093. Nasdaq -1%.
    Crude -1.6% to $72.71. Gold -1.6% to $1,146.
    30-year Tsy +0.6% to 119-27. 10-year +0.56%. 5-year +0.36%. 2-year +0.13%.
    Euro -0.5% vs. dollar. Yen +1.1%. Pound -1%.  [View news story]
    Why is the dollar rising?...there is nothing to back it up...it is so debt laden, backed by other debt laden countries (ex. Japan) it is worthless.

    Plus with the $13 TRILLION the govt has been pumping into the economy...it's like a massive ponzi scheme.


    March 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s.

    New pledges from the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. include $1 trillion for the Public-Private Investment Program, designed to help investors buy distressed loans and other assets from U.S. banks. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.
    Dec 8, 2009. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sources say U.S. pay czar Kenneth Feinberg will exempt some AIG (AIG) executives from a $500,000 salary cap after at least five employees threatened to quit. Feinberg said in October (.pdf) base salaries wouldn't exceed $500K except in cases where there was "good cause" to pay more.  [View news story]
    Wow...the pay czar position just got neutered.
    Dec 8, 2009. 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICSC Retail Store Sales: -1.3% W/W and +2.6% Y/Y, down from -0.1% and +3.1% last week. ICSC warns of (hopes for?) a last-minute shopping rush, but maybe people really are just giving cash.  [View news story]
    This is why unemployment is now a leading indicator.
    Dec 8, 2009. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Jobs Report and the Week Ahead [View article]
    I disagree that unemployment is a lagging indicator. When too many are out of work and our 70% consumer economy continues to slide down (ICSC Store sales -1.3% during the holiday!) it begins to impact future production, shipping, sales, etc..

    Employment didn't improve the number of unemployed shrank due to being dropped from the count. The 55-64 age group is retiring early due to no jobs, thus not being counted. The 16-24 group isn't counted since they have never been employed. Size of labor force continues to shrink, the size of those 'not in labor force' continues to rise (at twice the rate the size of labor force shrinks). Ignoring the unemployment situation is why Wall Street has disconnected from Main Street.

    I'll keep saying this:
    The reason the numbers changed:
    Civilian Labor force (total employed and unemployed):
    Sept Oct Nov
    154.0 mil 153.9 mil 153.8 mil (shrinking month to month)
    Sept-Nov Size of labor force decreased by ~ 200,000

    Not in Labor force (NILF) no longer counted
    Totals:
    Sept Oct Nov
    82.3 mil 82.5 mil 82.8 mil (growing month to month)
    Sept-Nov NILF increased by ~ 500,000

    Fewer unemployed are counted...they are dropped from the rate, thus it 'appears' unemployment is going down, when in reality these people are discarded.
    Dec 8, 2009. 07:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Conditions Almost Back to Normal [View article]
    The 'new normal' has been declared:
    - 10-17% unemployment (or higher depending on how you look at the numbers).

    - Ballooning government debt (see Japan for an example).

    - US falls to Japan status or worse (majority of Japan's debt held domestically versus US hels externally...thus easily manipulated by foreign governments).

    -oligarchy in control (Fed and Friends) and traders too high on making money day to day to care about the longer term (5-10 yr) implications.

    - possible worldwide agreement to renegotiate debt?

    -BIC the new power group (Russia has too many internal problems to be included)
    Dec 7, 2009. 07:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Unemployment Appears to Crest, Monetary Policy Reaches Critical Juncture [View article]
    The reason the numbers changed:
    Civilian Labor force (total employed and unemployed):
    Sept Oct Nov
    154.0 mil 153.9 mil 153.8 mil (shrinking month to month)
    Sept-Nov Size of labor force decreased by ~ 200,000

    Not in Labor force (NILF) no longer counted
    Totals:
    Sept Oct Nov
    82.3 mil 82.5 mil 82.8 mil (growing month to month)
    Sept-Nov NILF increased by ~ 500,000

    Fewer unemployed are counted...they are dropped from the rate, thus it 'appears' unemployment is going down, when in reality these people are discarded.
    Dec 7, 2009. 07:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Notes: Jobs Summit a Success - Just Look at Employment Numbers [View article]
    How about showing a total number of those 'no longer in workforce'? The government is merely peeling a larger percentage of unemployed from the stats making it appear the unemployment rate is going down. It seems they really are trying to talk their way our of this recession. 'Convince people everything is better and it will be.'
    This tells me that the economy is so bad nothing can be done. Our debt insurmountable, similar to Japan, that this is the new normal everything is ok level."
    Dec 7, 2009. 06:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Japan Going to Stop Buying Our Debt? [View article]
    How exactly does one buy debt with debt? Japan's debt to GDP ratio (+180%) is off the chart compared to ours. When exactly does someone somewhere say, "Whoa....you guys are broke." ? Our debt is backed by even larger debt. Seems more like fraud to me.
    Dec 7, 2009. 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "This kind of looks like a buying stampede ... It's just an awful popular trade." - One of a number of investment chiefs who have begun cutting holdings in gold and miners to take profits.  [View news story]
    buy on the dip. It will go back up when all the temp jobs get dumped in the new year. I'm sort of surprised people didn't realize that the drop in unemployment was due to fewer unemployed being counted (291,000 'no longer in workforce' for Nov alone!..ouches), not fewer actually unemployed.
    Dec 5, 2009. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,217 Comments
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