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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Fall Again [View article]
    It was a short week...the UE offices were closed for 2 days in some places. SO +400,000 filing in just 3 days is disastrous!

    Extended emergency benefits are 3 MILLION higher than last year.

    How is any of this better news?

    The mammoth only sank 4 inches this week instead of 5 is somehow better?
    You lost $500 the week before but only lost $400 this past week is better?

    There is NO job creation.
    Dec 3 11:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November Same Store Sales Generally Weak [View article]
    "...so even though sales are down, less aggressive discounting could help margins improve."

    Less aggressive discounting? Where did you get that from? There has been MORE aggressive discounting this year than last.

    This is what I read:
    "...retailers are responding the way they did last holiday season — with ultra-steep discounts early on. The price war that Wal-Mart is waging against Amazon may stretch consumers’ dollars, but it’s hell on other retailers, who must either match discounts or risk losing customers. Already, 2009 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2008, when retailers desperately slashed prices to entice wary consumers."

    www.mutualfundsmag.us/...
    Dec 3 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nov. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 48.7 vs. 51.5 expected and 50.6 prior (<50 denotes contraction). Decline was led by a drop in the Business index, which fell to 49.6 from 55.2 in October. Prices index rose to 57.8 from 53. Employment rose to 41.6 from 41.  [View news story]
    As homer says..."Dooooop!"

    Market will probably shake it off by lunch time if not sooner.
    Dec 3 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bracing for Friday's Jobs Report [View article]
    Unemployment number totals:

    Continuing : 4,787,291, vs. last year 3,652,990
    Extended Federal Program: 597,688 vs. 33,125 last year
    EUC 2008: 3,859,553 vs. 777,393 last year.

    Totals continuing and extended: 9,244,532 vs. 4,463,508.

    hat tip to irishscot2 on MW
    Dec 3 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -5K to 457K vs. 485K expected. Continuing claims +28K to 5,465,000.  [View news story]
    Remember folks...it was a much shorter week (by 2 days!!!)

    the EUC (extended emergency beneis) number jumped by 265,300 to 3,859,553!!!

    Yikes.
    Dec 3 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bracing for Friday's Jobs Report [View article]
    With a huge number of same store sales down, don't expect much hiring. Companies won't hire if no one is going to the store.

    Plus remember it was a much shorter week.
    Dec 3 08:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC Motor, China's top automaker, and GM are reportedly close to an agreement on a 50-50 JV to produce and sell vehicles in India. GM will also sell a 1% stake in its Chinese passenger-car venture to SAIC for $84.5M, a source says.  [View news story]
    Extremely smart move by GM to start to get out of the US market for the next big consumer based economy.
    Dec 3 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nov. same-store sales (actual vs. Briefing.com estimate), update #1:
    ARO +7% vs. +10%.
    APP -11% vs. -3%.
    BKE +1.4% vs. +4%.
    BONT -6% vs. +1%.
    COST +6% vs. +8.2%.
    HOTT -11.7% vs. -7.9%.
    LTD +3% vs. -2.3%.
    PLCE -13% vs. +0.8%.
    SMRT -7.2% vs. -6.5%.
    SSI -12.5% vs. -5.3%.
    ZUMZ -8.5% vs. -8.1%.
    10 misses, 1 beat.  [View news story]
    Dillards same store sales down 11%
    Gap same store sales: flat
    American Eagle same store sales: down 2%
    Macy's same store sales: down 6.1%
    Abercrombie & Fitch same-store sales down 17%

    Yea the economy is recovering...
    Dec 3 08:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Fred's (FRED) same-store sales release: "More than in past years, consumers seem to be delaying purchase decisions until later into the season. As Christmas nears, our stores are well stocked..."  [View news story]
    Think they are delaying or just not going to buy?

    I have heard a huge number of families (still employed) state they are not giving gifts this year (adults). Of course those unemployed will either be extremely frugal or not show up at all.
    Dec 3 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nov. same-store sales (actual vs. Briefing.com estimate), update #1:
    ARO +7% vs. +10%.
    APP -11% vs. -3%.
    BKE +1.4% vs. +4%.
    BONT -6% vs. +1%.
    COST +6% vs. +8.2%.
    HOTT -11.7% vs. -7.9%.
    LTD +3% vs. -2.3%.
    PLCE -13% vs. +0.8%.
    SMRT -7.2% vs. -6.5%.
    SSI -12.5% vs. -5.3%.
    ZUMZ -8.5% vs. -8.1%.
    10 misses, 1 beat.  [View news story]
    As I stated in another comment... When does unemployment become a leading indicator? Looks like maybe sooner rather than later. Some seriously big misses.
    Dec 3 07:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment Report Preview: Lagging Indicator for Investors [View article]
    At what point does unemployment become a leading indicator?

    With 70% of the US economy domestic consumer based, and the number of employed continues to shrink. When, those still employed become more frugal, cautious, decide to de leverage their debt instead of buy or just plain panicked, does it impact the economy?

    I believe we are very close to, if not reached, that point.
    Dec 3 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America's (BAC) TARP exit plan: Use $26.2B in excess liquidity and $18.8B from sale of "common equivalent securities," along with asset sales to increase equity by $4B. The deal was largely engineered by Greg Curl, the chief risk officer and a candidate to replace Ken Lewis as CEO. BAC now +2.9% AH.  [View news story]
    So that is why we are #1 in external and internal debt with a doubling in 10 yrs..

    We'll be just like Japan soon.


    On Dec 02 07:04 PM bbro wrote:

    > American Taxpayer has been a big winner ......system saved ...and
    > got
    > paid with interest....how many other government boondoogles can say
    >
    > that....
    Dec 2 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research firm TrimTabs makes the case for its job-loss numbers being more accurate (higher) than the government's.  [View news story]
    Ouch!

    Why doesn't BLS estimate using this system?
    Dec 2 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key next steps for the FHA, from HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan's testimony (.pdf): focus on enforcement, reduce maximum seller concession to 3%, raise minimum FICO scores, increase up-front cash for the borrower, and increase insurance premiums. (via)  [View news story]
    What's left of the housing market should come to a stand still when this gets implemented.
    Dec 2 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D.R. Horton: Did Anyone Actually Listen to the Call? [View article]
    Here in NE Florida...building of new homes has come to a screeching halt. I'm waiting to see if any of the big developers go under...I have no idea how they have held on this long.
    Dec 2 04:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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