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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Why The BlackBerry Passport Launch Is A Big Deal [View article]
    They need to deliver...focus is fine, actually rolling it out is another.
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Job Creation Holds at Six-Year High [View news story]
    I think the moving average might be a bit better, but again the weekly claims may be fooled by declining participation rate.

    http://bit.ly/1pImIvs
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Job Creation Holds at Six-Year High [View news story]
    Interestingly the P2P is below the July level, suggesting more part time jobs. Part time jobs usually dont qualify for unemployment insurance either, thus the unemployment claims number could be faked out (conversely one can work part time and still get a reduced claim as long as the previous job qualified for UI) . Of course another aspect of the report..."Government job creation ticks up further, while private-sector growth dips slightly"
    Sep 3, 2014. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The BlackBerry Passport Launch Is A Big Deal [View article]
    Instead of focusing on the 'pretty/shiny' aspect, BBRY should be focusing on security and durability. This should be their main concentration and how they can beat competition in the long run. Hackers will focus on easier targets such as Android or back doors into Apple apps (or jailbroken phones). BBRY can pull in businesses as well as solidify their govt base clients with this focus. Security advancement is the key to the future of mobile systems.
    Sep 3, 2014. 08:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Dangerous Stock Market [View article]
    Always good to enter into gold (and silver) when its on the low end (paper or physical) which we are certainly at or close to. An further drop in price, and some smaller and low production medium mines will close (presents opportunities in mineral rights). This could cause a contraction in supply, then we get the whipsaw up and down of price. Gold is unique in that the physical holding is an insurance policy whereas the paper side is more the casino play. I would suggest that the paper side can be even more volatile than equities in that there is blatant manipulation (at least in equities 'they' try to hide it). All in all, low volume makes for a substantially higher risk for those of us without HFT algos.
    Sep 3, 2014. 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the jobs number [View news story]
    If going by participation rate numbers, the job gains were in the +55 and the 20-24 yr old group. 25-54 saw a decline/stagnation.
    Jul 3, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs gain of 288K; UE rate down to 6.1% [View news story]
    Indeed. The real problem they may face is rates. Market is forcing upward, no matter how hard they try to sit on them. If they restrain too long, then they will be forced to chase the rates upward and inflation could run out of control. They may have waited too long already.
    Jul 3, 2014. 08:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs gain of 288K; UE rate down to 6.1% [View news story]
    Probably some of the best internals (M/M) positive change in years. Lets hope its not 'noise'.
    Jul 3, 2014. 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Services PMI Flash Index sees sharpest rise in June since October 2009 [View news story]
    Wooo careful.... price paid getting a bit hot. Don't want the inflation monster to get out of the bag. Otherwise a somewhat sexy report.
    Jun 25, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    You are correct, they are rising....though series wise still low.
    http://bit.ly/1rycOKx
    Of course the assumption is rising quits means there are better jobs (higher pay) to migrate to as opposed to the possibility that jobs are so poor that one is merely trying to find something that isn't quite as miserable as the last. Considering the wage stagnation (especially recently) it seems more just job hopping than finding higher pay.
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    I think the concern of many..myself included, is the massive government and Fed intervention that is still taking place. Continued forced low interest rates coupled with continued debt creation isn't the sign of a healthy economy.
    http://bit.ly/1iFrNSE

    Since the US is consumer based a more rapid rise in wages would seem a better indicator, instead wage are stagnant at best and lately in a bit of decline Y/Y. A recent pop in inflation (hopefully a fluke) wont help a consumer stuck with low wages.
    Cracks are beginning to show.
    http://on.mktw.net/1ry...

    US in top 10 OECD countries with families struggling to afford food.
    http://bit.ly/1ryahjm
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    Quits levels show what? Job quality? Age of participants? Wonder what is driving quits lower?
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K

    Perhaps its retirees forgetting to retire?
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    Participation rate 25-54 vs weekly claims (interesting new dynamic):
    http://bit.ly/1iFrKXe

    Housing starts:
    http://bit.ly/1iFrLKB

    Corporate and Govt debt (as percentage of GDP):
    http://bit.ly/1iFrNSE

    The economy is a farce. Its the product of forced low interest rates, hot money and debt expansion.

    70% of wage earners make less than $50k a year. 50% less than $28k.
    http://1.usa.gov/1kPa6Qx

    Now imagine a .5% increase in interest rates....
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims down 26K to 323K [View news story]
    Decent report as long as we have now accepted +300,000 new claims is ok. Interesting historically if you are trend fan.
    http://bit.ly/1hP2Voi

    Notice how the bottoms all look the same....looks like we have already hit this cycles bottom.
    Mar 6, 2014. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP Jobs Report at 139K [View news story]
    quantity doesn't necessarily mean quality. The majority of jobs have been the low end. I wont even get into the participation rate issue.
    Mar 5, 2014. 08:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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