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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • New Home Sales [View news story]
    Some perspective.
    http://bit.ly/1kgIeBu
    Feb 26 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales [View news story]
    SA has the number wrong. Should read 468K
    Feb 26 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations And Continue To Decline [View article]
    Notice a massive problem?
    http://bit.ly/1gVRU4a

    This is the influence of fed and govt intervention that has caused markets to artificially rise in relation to the employment situation.
    Feb 22 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations And Continue To Decline [View article]
    Unfortunately we will see the re-emergence of sub-primes again in one last desperate attempt to hold up the housing market.... Only to have a repeat occur.
    Feb 22 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations And Continue To Decline [View article]
    Home prices were never allowed to fully correct and have been propped up by forced low interest rates and government backed loans.
    http://bit.ly/1gVQ1V4

    The real problem is the labor force participation rate of the meat of the workforce ( and household creators) 25-54yr old group has been degrading and though lagging, the home ownership rate is trying to catch down to it:

    http://bit.ly/1cqglVU

    As long as participation rate declines the housing market will go with it.
    Feb 22 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims drops 3K to 336K [View news story]
    Yep all is well...
    http://bit.ly/1fC3NZ6
    Feb 20 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    Problem is 2 fold...
    Prices never really corrected v starts/permits (Fed and govt intervention):
    http://bit.ly/1cqgk4m

    The biggy is home ownership rate must catch down to participation rate for the 'meat' of the workforce (25-54yr olds):

    http://bit.ly/1cqglVU

    If this demographic continues to decline, so will home ownership rates.
    Feb 19 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. payrolls up 113K, unemployment rate at 6.6% [View news story]
    The number of unemployed rose by almost 900,000 M/M ( NSA) and participation rate degraded again. Just because people are no longer counted doesn't make it a pretty picture.
    Feb 7 08:55 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless claims down 20K to 331K [View news story]
    I know 'there is no recession' as you claim since +300,000 new claims a week is the new positive. But if the Fed et al weren't sitting on interest rates, what do you think the economy would look like? If all was indeed well, why must so much intervention be needed?
    Feb 6 08:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Challenger job cuts rise to +45,000 for January. +11.6% Y/Y (vs -5% prev.).
    Feb 6 07:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP Jobs Report added 175K [View news story]
    Jolts does have some great data. Quits I know supposedly indicates how mobile workers are (looking for something better v things stink and too scared to change). It has been trending in the right direction.

    I realized part of my question was stupid since I believe ADP counts total pay checks (correct?) thus layoffs wouldn't be a factor.
    Feb 5 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP Jobs Report added 175K [View news story]
    Do they determine full vs part time or just number of hires? I'm curious if the CBOs ACA impact is starting. It would also be helpful to see number of layoffs vs hires per month to see how big job growth really is. Are these people staying or only temp.
    Feb 5 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Brazilian Production -2.3 vs 0.4 last time. Not sure why this is going unnoticed.
    Feb 4 08:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Confidence at 80.7 [View news story]
    This puts things nicely into perspective...
    "Since 2009, the year the recession ended, inflation-adjusted spending by this top echelon has risen 17 percent, compared with just 1 percent among the bottom 95 percent."
    http://nyti.ms/1eO1kdy
    Feb 3 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart warns on profits [View news story]
    Here seems to be the cause...
    http://nyti.ms/1eO1kdy

    "More broadly, about 90 percent of the overall increase in inflation-adjusted consumption between 2009 and 2012 was generated by the top 20 percent of households in terms of income, according to the study, which was sponsored by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, a research group in New York."

    This seems to be borne out in today's auto sales with high end auto sellers not impacted by the weather vs Ford.
    Feb 3 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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