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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • NAHB Housing Market Index at 59 [View news story]
    Take it in context...home sales are way below where they were in 2005. We are at 1990 levels.
    http://bit.ly/1s6OKTh

    To top it all off, the economy (namely the average person) is less wealthy than they were in 2005. After 2005 the wheels came off the bus and the whole thing fell apart.
    Sep 17, 2014. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NAHB Housing Market Index at 59 [View news story]
    If the Fed signals a more hawkish tone expect a spike as people run out to grab lower mortgage rates before the door slams shut.
    Sep 17, 2014. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims +11K to 315K [View news story]
    Sure for the top 30%. Majority of people it continues to decline. Their wealth is still in recession.
    http://1.usa.gov/1t4NITy
    http://bit.ly/1nSyKNE

    And total debt/liabilities is over $59T
    http://bit.ly/NUsqSf

    Workforce participation is lower than in 2011
    http://bit.ly/1nSyNcf

    Economic 'growth' forgot to trickle down... And this is with untold $Trillions and forced historic low interest rates. If the rates rise, what little economic 'recovery' will go into reverse.
    Sep 13, 2014. 06:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [View news story]
    Mixed bag (NSA). Hires dropped, and openings, quits and separations rose. Sort of a meh report.
    Sep 9, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks end cautious week on higher note [View news story]
    US govt adds over $1 trillion in new debt before the end on the FY. http://1.usa.gov/1uDl651
    Sep 5, 2014. 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 142K jobs added in August; UE rate to 6.1% [View news story]
    I do like Gallup's P2P. They of course noted new biz decline back in Jan. http://bit.ly/1rPRMLG
    Sep 5, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 142K jobs added in August; UE rate to 6.1% [View news story]
    Bit worrying.... The self-employment numbers well below last years. New biz formation is not happening. BLS birth/ death model may be way off.
    http://1.usa.gov/137oVJ
    Sep 5, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Dangerous Stock Market [View article]
    Fair enough!
    Sep 3, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Dangerous Stock Market [View article]
    Anything is possible, but a $950-1000 price shuts down a large number of mines (US and Can) due to rising costs. This would cause a huge supply squeeze and wicked price spikes and dips (much worse than what we see occasionally now).

    I agree on the rates. I think we are in for long protected low rates due to increasing debt levels. No one wants to kill what little growth is occurring.
    Sep 3, 2014. 11:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The BlackBerry Passport Launch Is A Big Deal [View article]
    They need to deliver...focus is fine, actually rolling it out is another.
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Job Creation Holds at Six-Year High [View news story]
    I think the moving average might be a bit better, but again the weekly claims may be fooled by declining participation rate.

    http://bit.ly/1pImIvs
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Job Creation Holds at Six-Year High [View news story]
    Interestingly the P2P is below the July level, suggesting more part time jobs. Part time jobs usually dont qualify for unemployment insurance either, thus the unemployment claims number could be faked out (conversely one can work part time and still get a reduced claim as long as the previous job qualified for UI) . Of course another aspect of the report..."Government job creation ticks up further, while private-sector growth dips slightly"
    Sep 3, 2014. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The BlackBerry Passport Launch Is A Big Deal [View article]
    Instead of focusing on the 'pretty/shiny' aspect, BBRY should be focusing on security and durability. This should be their main concentration and how they can beat competition in the long run. Hackers will focus on easier targets such as Android or back doors into Apple apps (or jailbroken phones). BBRY can pull in businesses as well as solidify their govt base clients with this focus. Security advancement is the key to the future of mobile systems.
    Sep 3, 2014. 08:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Dangerous Stock Market [View article]
    Always good to enter into gold (and silver) when its on the low end (paper or physical) which we are certainly at or close to. An further drop in price, and some smaller and low production medium mines will close (presents opportunities in mineral rights). This could cause a contraction in supply, then we get the whipsaw up and down of price. Gold is unique in that the physical holding is an insurance policy whereas the paper side is more the casino play. I would suggest that the paper side can be even more volatile than equities in that there is blatant manipulation (at least in equities 'they' try to hide it). All in all, low volume makes for a substantially higher risk for those of us without HFT algos.
    Sep 3, 2014. 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the jobs number [View news story]
    If going by participation rate numbers, the job gains were in the +55 and the 20-24 yr old group. 25-54 saw a decline/stagnation.
    Jul 3, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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