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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    Participation rate 25-54 vs weekly claims (interesting new dynamic):
    http://bit.ly/1iFrKXe

    Housing starts:
    http://bit.ly/1iFrLKB

    Corporate and Govt debt (as percentage of GDP):
    http://bit.ly/1iFrNSE

    The economy is a farce. Its the product of forced low interest rates, hot money and debt expansion.

    70% of wage earners make less than $50k a year. 50% less than $28k.
    http://1.usa.gov/1kPa6Qx

    Now imagine a .5% increase in interest rates....
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims down 26K to 323K [View news story]
    Decent report as long as we have now accepted +300,000 new claims is ok. Interesting historically if you are trend fan.
    http://bit.ly/1hP2Voi

    Notice how the bottoms all look the same....looks like we have already hit this cycles bottom.
    Mar 6, 2014. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP Jobs Report at 139K [View news story]
    quantity doesn't necessarily mean quality. The majority of jobs have been the low end. I wont even get into the participation rate issue.
    Mar 5, 2014. 08:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama details budget plan; debt payments seen tripling [View news story]
    Debt for the fiscal year is already over $600B as debt ceiling fight actually dragged last FY into this one. So if they keep that snow ball rolling it could be interesting.
    Mar 5, 2014. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP at 2.4% [View news story]
    Yep looks awesome...rally on...
    http://bit.ly/1hIcKmi
    Feb 28, 2014. 09:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Budget deficit falls at sharpest pace since WW2 [View news story]
    Easy to do when the debt ceiling battle causes the treasury to have to jiggle the numbers into the next budget year. This fiscal year... Debt has already risen over $600B.
    Feb 28, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales [View news story]
    My point was fewer are making enough to afford a home. Homeownership rates are bearing this out. We are going to run into the Irish situation of too many homes and not enough people able to own them.
    http://1.usa.gov/1o8iqHX
    Feb 27, 2014. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales [View news story]
    Meh...I don't think so. Prices out of whack with employment.
    http://bit.ly/1kgJuED
    Feb 26, 2014. 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales [View news story]
    Some perspective.
    http://bit.ly/1kgIeBu
    Feb 26, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales [View news story]
    SA has the number wrong. Should read 468K
    Feb 26, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations And Continue To Decline [View article]
    Notice a massive problem?
    http://bit.ly/1gVRU4a

    This is the influence of fed and govt intervention that has caused markets to artificially rise in relation to the employment situation.
    Feb 22, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations And Continue To Decline [View article]
    Unfortunately we will see the re-emergence of sub-primes again in one last desperate attempt to hold up the housing market.... Only to have a repeat occur.
    Feb 22, 2014. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations And Continue To Decline [View article]
    Home prices were never allowed to fully correct and have been propped up by forced low interest rates and government backed loans.
    http://bit.ly/1gVQ1V4

    The real problem is the labor force participation rate of the meat of the workforce ( and household creators) 25-54yr old group has been degrading and though lagging, the home ownership rate is trying to catch down to it:

    http://bit.ly/1cqglVU

    As long as participation rate declines the housing market will go with it.
    Feb 22, 2014. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims drops 3K to 336K [View news story]
    Yep all is well...
    http://bit.ly/1fC3NZ6
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    Problem is 2 fold...
    Prices never really corrected v starts/permits (Fed and govt intervention):
    http://bit.ly/1cqgk4m

    The biggy is home ownership rate must catch down to participation rate for the 'meat' of the workforce (25-54yr olds):

    http://bit.ly/1cqglVU

    If this demographic continues to decline, so will home ownership rates.
    Feb 19, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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