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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Consumer Confidence at 80.7 [View news story]
    Must be the weather
    Jan 28 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable goods falls 4.3% [View news story]
    Maybe...but bonds and gold are acting like the taper is coming.
    Jan 28 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index [View news story]
    Agreed. I'm worried the employment picture is starting to sour. Gallup is seeing a rapid decline in participation rate.
    http://bit.ly/z5Et8J

    And the housing trends are headed in the wrong direction.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 28 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Confidence at 80.7 [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/z5Et8J
    Jan 28 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable goods falls 4.3% [View news story]
    Ouch...the revisions were even brutal.
    Jan 28 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • STOCKS STILL UNDER PRESSURE - By WSS Research Desk [View instapost]
    Why are CATs results considered better than expected? Sales were worse Y/Y. Stock holders only benefitted due to corporate QE ( stock buy back) and cost cutting...not an improving economy and increased sales.
    Jan 27 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales Freeze Up [View article]
    Any claim that housing is recovering isn't looking at the big picture.
    http://bit.ly/Lhxl6o
    Basically it is range bound in multi decadal lows. This is after massive bailouts, cash injections and forced low interest rates. People should be extremely worried.... Regardless of weather.
    Jan 27 07:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home sales slow in December [View news story]
    Little perspective...
    http://bit.ly/1f6yzKC
    Jan 27 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales at 414K [View news story]
    Oh yea looking awesome....
    http://bit.ly/1fqmK2o
    Jan 27 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Caterpillar Q4: Plans major stock buybacks [View news story]
    So companies are using excess cash to buy back stocks and keep prices propped up? Not exactly a positive indicator for the future economy.
    Jan 27 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims edged up 1K to 326K [View news story]
    US population in 2000 was ~ 248 Million...it is now over 310 million. Gallup has the P2P at 42.5% (working 30hrs a week or more)..lowest in several years. GDP comparisons per worker is a weak metric these days since debt levels (corporate and government) are at multi-decadal highs. Central banks are forced to sit on interest rates to prevent economic collapse. The market is a farce, propped up by mass intervention and continued debt/currency creation with continued government loans, guarantees and outright Fed monetary injections. The returns from such policies are obviously diminishing at a rapid rate.

    Simply put...there are too many people for too few jobs. Jobs are either not being filled, being replaced by cheaper workforce elsewhere or being replaced by technology. The technology aspect is rather large and another reason why GDP per employee is misleading (additionally the way GDP is now calculated). The worker is getting credit for the robot or computer that is doing the work.
    Jan 23 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak China data leads small global selloff [View news story]
    ..lets see what happens after the London Market closes...
    Jan 23 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims edged up 1K to 326K [View news story]
    I suppose I look at it as $2.1Billion per month (cost of the program) was just removed from the consumer economy. Certainly many of these people will have to pick up some sort of job, but eventually, the degradation of the participation rate will impact the economy. Gallup's P2P is definitely heading in the wrong direction. Initial claims won't see this aspect at all.
    Jan 23 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broader Implications Of A Weakening Retail Sector [View article]
    I think the condition of the consumer is largely ignored. Hardly noticed in today's new unemployment claims report was the vanishing of over 1.35 million from EUC2008 as funding was not renewed. That is 1.35 million consumers no longer receiving unemployment. Translated a different way $26 Billion (yearly cost of the program) or $2.1 Billion per month, was just removed from the consumer economy.

    Shipping wise BDI, and my preferred shipping metric, HARPEX are at multi year lows
    http://bit.ly/qiOYoN

    Showing no real recovery. As to rail traffic...I wonder how often certain shenanigans happen to seem as if traffic is really doing well? http://bit.ly/1dRVrkx
    Jan 23 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims edged up 1K to 326K [View news story]
    EUC drops to zero as 1.35 million no longer receiving long term benefits. This might translate to a larger drop in participation rate for January.
    Jan 23 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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