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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Gold Breakout Occurs As The Days Turn Long [View article]
    Inventory will indeed be the key. I think we will see some serious whiplash moves as the slamdown continues only to see prices whip back up as inventory cannot keep with demand. It will all depend on how much longer the manipulators can run before they are out of gas or the market simply ignores the attempt at manipulation.
    Jan 23 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout Occurs As The Days Turn Long [View article]
    Here is my conspiracy theory for the Gold slamdown in 2013 and why it probably wont improve much in 2014. Several countries are making gold repatriation moves. Instead of the gold arriving quickly it is coming in extremely slowly (ex. Germany has only repatriated 5 tons of gold from the NY fed after a year). Banks are manipulating the price lower because they don't have the gold they are supposed to....so now they have to buy it.
    Jan 20 08:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.K. retail sales jump in December [View news story]
    Wonder how those UK consumer debt levels are looking?
    http://bbc.in/19yZyRc
    Jan 17 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senate approves budget [View news story]
    "..... Even though most legislators haven't read the 1582 page bill."

    Well that just makes me all warm and fuzzy. I wish I could find a job where I didn't have to do my job.
    Jan 17 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    Canda is certainly having a rough time recently with their unemployment.... of course they could change and measure like the US does and it would plummet.
    Jan 10 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    C,
    I think ADP on it's face was probably close. I can't stand the way BLS does their survey. Gallup does a better job IMHO. ADP doesn't really look at who takes the jobs (demographics) or can tell the quality of jobs. Even with +200,000 jobs it wasn't enough to offset those leaving. Next month will be very interesting with some 1 million+ having come off EUC. Either they will disappear from the count, or the number of job openings will drop since so many will be forced to find something.
    Jan 10 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    We have squandered most of our IP via trade deals (production in countries with less than diligent enforcement of IP violations) and ignorant regulation that supports patent trolls. There is very little software that isn't pirated.

    Technology is a positive and negative bedfellow. It has probably replaced more jobs than one can count. What took 1000 people 20 yrs ago can be done by 10.

    Plain and simple the US has a population problem. But in a consumer based economy, the US has failed to evolve the workforce with technology. Thus as fewer are working, poverty increases, heavy strain on social services and debt increases. Eventually this smothers the economy.
    I know you follow Gallup, they picked up on the participation rate drop. They show a level not seen in almost 3 yrs using their matrix (P2P). Only 42.9% in the 30 hr or more work week. Stagnation. And that is with years of QE, forced low interest rates and massive government backing of consumer loans. It just isn't working. Maneuvers can be made only so long before this imbalance causes nothing short of collapse.
    Jan 10 04:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    I don't think you should sell anything. Present situation is very positive for the stock market. It is heavily backed by government and Fed actions. Since this article has to do with employment, I thought that is the situation we were addressing. Participation rate has been degrading for some 15yrs. Eventually this imbalance will catch up with a consumer based economy. Corporate ( now almost $10 T) and government (now at $17.3 T) liabilities are at record highs. As long as indebtedness keeps being extended, things will function, but it will be ever diminishing returns. Interest rates have had to be forced down, and now the Fed is having difficulty sitting on them. I suspect they may be forced to hold off on the next taper move to keep things under control. The 10yr is trying very hard to break free of 3%. If it does the Fed may be forced to chase rates quickly.
    http://on.mktw.net/1kt...
    This is a big gorilla in the room no one wants to see wake up.
    Jan 10 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    Good portion of housing is purchased by investors...there are actually a few articles here on SA recently warning about the looming slowdown in housing. Regular home buyers (that can qualify) are getting government backed loans. Rental properties are the big winner at the moment. Autos...now I know you know this one.... 95% of all non-revolving consumer loans in 2013 were government backed student and auto loans. Retail sales are dismal as numerous reports are coming out.
    On the flip side high end auto sales, Bentley etc. are doing well. The income gap is getting wider and the worker is getting poorer. 70% live paycheck to paycheck, 80% have been in or are impoverished or near poverty (numerous articles on this).
    ex:
    http://cbsn.ws/1a7pbqm

    http://reut.rs/15B7QUQ
    "(Reuters) - The number of U.S. residents living in poverty edged up to 46.5 million last year, the latest sign that an economic recovery marked by a stock market boom has not trickled down to ordinary Americans."
    "While the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 16 percent on a total return basis last year, including reinvested dividends, the Census Bureau report showed median household income slipped to $51,017 from of $51,100 in 2011.
    The economy has struggled to sustain growth rates of more than 2.5 percent since the recession ended.
    Although the bulk of the more than 8 million jobs lost during the downturn have been recouped, many of the jobs have been in services industries such as retail and restaurants that typically do not pay well."

    The evidence is there. No one wants to look.
    Jan 10 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    The problem really is that there are over 45 million workage not in the labor force. filling the 3 million jobs might buy a bit of time, but the system is going to eat what is left of the economy.
    Jan 10 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    LFPR was also rising and had not been in a 15 yr decline as is the case now. US GDP growth then was due to all the other major manufacturer countries were in ruins from WW2 and hadn't rebuilt yet. The US was unopposed manufacturing wise. The picture now is so massively different I can't believe you made the comparison.
    Jan 10 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    What is the quality of those jobs? Which demographic is filling them? How much has the size of the potential labor force increased vs number of jobs created?
    2.2 million sounds nice, but if retirees are taking a large chunk of jobs and the number of those work age but not in the labor force are far outstripping job creation, not only is no improvement occurring, but the consumer based economy will collapse. Considering participation rate for the 25-54 group has been in long term decline it seems as if things are falling apart.
    There are 45.4 million NILF 16-64 (no disability).
    Extraordinary government and Fed programs are still in place years after the recession supposedly ended. I suspect, it never did end, but merely covered up.
    Jan 10 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BIG Employment Miss [View article]
    What should be concerning is that not only did the size of the Civ labor force decline (it was even less than Dec 2012), but the percentage of those within that smaller number that were active in the labor force declined also.
    Jan 10 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    such as what? it isn't due to retirees..they are the only demographic that is increasing participation rate. The meat of the workforce 25-54 yr olds have been declining for a long time. Gallup shows a decline to 42.9% (for 30hrs a week or more workers). This doesn't bode well in a consumer based economy. Eventually, this decline will crush the economy. Considering all the extraordinary measures still propping up the economy and we still see such degradation, I'm not sure we ever actually left the recession...just poured a can of paint over it and hoped it would stay glossy.
    Jan 10 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Payrolls Report That Matters Again [View article]
    People can't possibly be just looking at the headline rate since it only reflects a 1 week period in the month, and doesn't count those no longer in the workforce. Participation rate is key. Gallup poll out for December isn't promising showing the lowest participation rate (workers working 30hrs or more a week) in almost 3 yrs.
    http://bit.ly/KKcWam

    Though people like to point at the ADP numbers...the job gains appear to be in the retiree zone with older demographic showing the only increase in participation rate.
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K
    Jan 9 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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