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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
    " The U.S. prints its own money and never needs to default."
    True, that can be said for any country that prints its own money. Devaluing the currency though tends to have a rather negative impact allowed to go on too long. Commodities are already experiencing inflation. Economic growth via debt creation doesn't work for very long.
    Feb 5 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
    So the other agencies that didn't downgrade the US, but were just as complicit as SP....what are ok? Give me a break. EJ and SP get punished for correctly downgrading the US ( especially in light of WH now asking for much smaller cuts) get hammered and those that continue to not rate correctly get off the hook. Govt corruption is impressive.
    Feb 5 11:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Job Growth And Upward Revisions Contrast Sharply With Reported GDP Decrease [View article]
    Seniors are actually the one part of the population that is increasing their employment to population ratio. They are either coming out of retirement or not retiring.
    http://bit.ly/IjfFQX

    16-65 men:
    http://bit.ly/IjfDZf

    16-65 women:
    http://bit.ly/IjfDZj
    Feb 4 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear"  economist David Rosenberg sees "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time." While the car is in the middle of the road right now, "is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?" [View news story]
    The problem is, the economy cannot function without the continued govt/Fed intervention. Without the govt backing over 90% of all non-revolving loans and the Fed monetizing debt and forcing the interest rates to rediculously low levels, there would be no economy. Unfortunately these actions come a a cost. The cost will continue to build until we cannot afford it. Make money now while you can because when the music stops only the banksters and politicians will have chairs.
    Feb 3 09:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    Incomes rose due to lump SS payments and bonuses brought forward. Weekly jobless is solidly in the +300,000 new claims each week.
    Notice the bottoming trend:
    http://bit.ly/Xeyry2
    Higher bottom each time...and we seem to be approaching that again.
    Just ask yourself if you think we are getting a good return for the amount of debt we are piling on. Due to the amount of debt, the Fed can not allow interest rates to rise, we have painted ourselves into a corner.
    Feb 2 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    I agree it will be, especially since the meme being reported that govt spending dropped when it actually was higher by $30 Billion from Q3. If +$320 Billion in new debt cannot generate a positive GDP influence via the govt (spent a total of over $907 Billion in Q4) then we are much worse off than I thought.
    Feb 2 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    Year over year the employment picture is nearly the same. Considering the amount of money thrown at the economy, there doesn't seem to be a very good return.
    The employment to population ratio is now flat Y/Y:
    http://1.usa.gov/pLdc0Y
    ..and Not In Labor Force continues to rise:
    http://1.usa.gov/11xOOIS

    ..There is increased support demand (those not working) on the workforce. Additionally, the quality of new jobs seems to be rather weak, with temp and part time accounting for an ever growing number of jobs.
    http://bit.ly/VB682B

    $Trillions thrown at the economy and this is where we are...treading water in very weak condition.
    Feb 2 07:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    I know you look at not seasonally adjusted....it was a terrible report. the B-1 NSA shows a huge hemorrhage of jobs. Employment to population ratio continues to decline.

    110.9 Million private in Jan vs 113.3 million in Dec.. That is a big drop. We are treading water after literally $trillions thrown at the economy.
    Feb 1 08:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs And Manufacturing Point To Continued Growth [View article]
    Do you actually read the BLS report...or just go with the seasonally adjusted meme? Take a look at table A-9 (not seasonally adjusted) under full and part time. Then go to table B-1...not seasonally adjusted. Total private jobs dropped by 2.4 million Dec to Jan.
    Feb 1 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Job Growth And Upward Revisions Contrast Sharply With Reported GDP Decrease [View article]
    Might want to look at the not seasonally adjusted numbers before getting too excited. 1.3 million more on unemployment. Employment to population ratio dropped.
    look at table A-9 down at the bottom under full and part time employment...both dropped dramatically.
    Feb 1 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Stagflation [View article]
    The concern I have is as the employment to population ratio continues to degrade, there are fewer that can afford the items Foxxcon churns out. Nearly half the US workforce is at or near the Fed poverty level. At some point the debt driven economic bill will have to be paid.
    GDP declined despite the government spending $30 Billion more than Q3 and running a +$320 Billion in new debt. Forced low interest rates and government backed loans (90% of all new non- revolving loans are govt backed) seem to be all keeping the consumer on their feet. If lump SS payments and bonuses brought forward are the driver for a 0.2% rise in spending...we are in serious trouble.
    Jan 31 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Stagflation [View article]
    You are assuming that retirees are staying out of the workforce....they are increasing. So to claim declining demographics is incorrect.
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K

    Fewer work age people are participating.
    http://bit.ly/YkUiqk

    http://bit.ly/12bPVCK
    Jan 31 07:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating Negative Growth [View article]
    Government spending didn't fall. it increased by $30 Billion in Q4. People need to stop repeating the falsity that someone started.
    Jan 31 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP: January Payrolls Climb The Most In 11 Months [View article]
    The problem is BLS and ADP count all jobs as equal. Part time, temp, full time. The quality of new jobs being created is extremely low. A quarter of all new jobs pay below the federal poverty level. Employment to population ratio is at 1983 levels with a 2012 population.
    Jan 30 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing GDP: Some Anomalies In The Q4 Advance Estimate [View article]
    Interesting that lack of government spending was a big contributor when the government spent $30 billion more in Q4 than in Q3.
    Wonder were that money went.....
    Jan 30 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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