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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • BIG Employment Miss [View article]
    What should be concerning is that not only did the size of the Civ labor force decline (it was even less than Dec 2012), but the percentage of those within that smaller number that were active in the labor force declined also.
    Jan 10 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    such as what? it isn't due to retirees..they are the only demographic that is increasing participation rate. The meat of the workforce 25-54 yr olds have been declining for a long time. Gallup shows a decline to 42.9% (for 30hrs a week or more workers). This doesn't bode well in a consumer based economy. Eventually, this decline will crush the economy. Considering all the extraordinary measures still propping up the economy and we still see such degradation, I'm not sure we ever actually left the recession...just poured a can of paint over it and hoped it would stay glossy.
    Jan 10 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Payrolls Report That Matters Again [View article]
    People can't possibly be just looking at the headline rate since it only reflects a 1 week period in the month, and doesn't count those no longer in the workforce. Participation rate is key. Gallup poll out for December isn't promising showing the lowest participation rate (workers working 30hrs or more a week) in almost 3 yrs.
    http://bit.ly/KKcWam

    Though people like to point at the ADP numbers...the job gains appear to be in the retiree zone with older demographic showing the only increase in participation rate.
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K
    Jan 9 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
    This article is completely wrong. 65 and older is the only demographic increasing their participation rate.
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K

    16-64 with no disability:
    Men:
    http://bit.ly/IAoJTQ
    Women:
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4I
    Oct 22 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson's Invokana: Be Careful [View article]
    No positions in any stocks mentioned..except the leader in diabetes drugs?...Merk...which you indeed did not mention.
    Apr 1 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +20K to 362K vs. 359K consensus, 342K prior (revised). Continuing claims +11K to 3.14M. [View news story]
    NSA almost the same as last year...how many $100s of Billions ($Trillions) spent to stay level?
    Feb 21 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. International Trade: The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services -$38.5B vs. consensus of -$46.0B, $48.6B (revised) in Nov. [View news story]
    Except the bea anticipated this in its initial estimate.

    While the drop in the deficit was much larger than the consensus expected, it was not far off from what the BEA assumed in the fourth quarter advance GDP data. The BEA anticipated that, excluding nonmonetary gold, the trade balance would fall to roughly -$40.0 bln. According to the actual data, the trade deficit excluding gold dropped to $41.0 bln. That means the huge “surprise” in the trade data will not result in an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP and may actually contribute more to the contraction."

    "It is likely that it was due to the week-long strike in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports that occurred after Thanksgiving. That delayed some shipments that normally would have been made in December into January."

    Read more: http://bit.ly/UKpVwn
    Feb 8 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 366K vs. 360K consensus, 368K prior. [View news story]
    True..but 90% of the people aren't employed...58% of the population is and declining.
    http://bit.ly/YX5y0f

    This is after massive intervention by the govt and fed that is still continuing.
    Feb 7 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
    " The U.S. prints its own money and never needs to default."
    True, that can be said for any country that prints its own money. Devaluing the currency though tends to have a rather negative impact allowed to go on too long. Commodities are already experiencing inflation. Economic growth via debt creation doesn't work for very long.
    Feb 5 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
    So the other agencies that didn't downgrade the US, but were just as complicit as SP....what are ok? Give me a break. EJ and SP get punished for correctly downgrading the US ( especially in light of WH now asking for much smaller cuts) get hammered and those that continue to not rate correctly get off the hook. Govt corruption is impressive.
    Feb 5 11:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Job Growth And Upward Revisions Contrast Sharply With Reported GDP Decrease [View article]
    Seniors are actually the one part of the population that is increasing their employment to population ratio. They are either coming out of retirement or not retiring.
    http://bit.ly/IjfFQX

    16-65 men:
    http://bit.ly/IjfDZf

    16-65 women:
    http://bit.ly/IjfDZj
    Feb 4 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear"  economist David Rosenberg sees "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time." While the car is in the middle of the road right now, "is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?" [View news story]
    The problem is, the economy cannot function without the continued govt/Fed intervention. Without the govt backing over 90% of all non-revolving loans and the Fed monetizing debt and forcing the interest rates to rediculously low levels, there would be no economy. Unfortunately these actions come a a cost. The cost will continue to build until we cannot afford it. Make money now while you can because when the music stops only the banksters and politicians will have chairs.
    Feb 3 09:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    Incomes rose due to lump SS payments and bonuses brought forward. Weekly jobless is solidly in the +300,000 new claims each week.
    Notice the bottoming trend:
    http://bit.ly/Xeyry2
    Higher bottom each time...and we seem to be approaching that again.
    Just ask yourself if you think we are getting a good return for the amount of debt we are piling on. Due to the amount of debt, the Fed can not allow interest rates to rise, we have painted ourselves into a corner.
    Feb 2 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    I agree it will be, especially since the meme being reported that govt spending dropped when it actually was higher by $30 Billion from Q3. If +$320 Billion in new debt cannot generate a positive GDP influence via the govt (spent a total of over $907 Billion in Q4) then we are much worse off than I thought.
    Feb 2 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    Year over year the employment picture is nearly the same. Considering the amount of money thrown at the economy, there doesn't seem to be a very good return.
    The employment to population ratio is now flat Y/Y:
    http://1.usa.gov/pLdc0Y
    ..and Not In Labor Force continues to rise:
    http://1.usa.gov/11xOOIS

    ..There is increased support demand (those not working) on the workforce. Additionally, the quality of new jobs seems to be rather weak, with temp and part time accounting for an ever growing number of jobs.
    http://bit.ly/VB682B

    $Trillions thrown at the economy and this is where we are...treading water in very weak condition.
    Feb 2 07:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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