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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    I don't think you should sell anything. Present situation is very positive for the stock market. It is heavily backed by government and Fed actions. Since this article has to do with employment, I thought that is the situation we were addressing. Participation rate has been degrading for some 15yrs. Eventually this imbalance will catch up with a consumer based economy. Corporate ( now almost $10 T) and government (now at $17.3 T) liabilities are at record highs. As long as indebtedness keeps being extended, things will function, but it will be ever diminishing returns. Interest rates have had to be forced down, and now the Fed is having difficulty sitting on them. I suspect they may be forced to hold off on the next taper move to keep things under control. The 10yr is trying very hard to break free of 3%. If it does the Fed may be forced to chase rates quickly.
    http://on.mktw.net/1kt...
    This is a big gorilla in the room no one wants to see wake up.
    Jan 10 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    Good portion of housing is purchased by investors...there are actually a few articles here on SA recently warning about the looming slowdown in housing. Regular home buyers (that can qualify) are getting government backed loans. Rental properties are the big winner at the moment. Autos...now I know you know this one.... 95% of all non-revolving consumer loans in 2013 were government backed student and auto loans. Retail sales are dismal as numerous reports are coming out.
    On the flip side high end auto sales, Bentley etc. are doing well. The income gap is getting wider and the worker is getting poorer. 70% live paycheck to paycheck, 80% have been in or are impoverished or near poverty (numerous articles on this).
    ex:
    http://cbsn.ws/1a7pbqm

    http://reut.rs/15B7QUQ
    "(Reuters) - The number of U.S. residents living in poverty edged up to 46.5 million last year, the latest sign that an economic recovery marked by a stock market boom has not trickled down to ordinary Americans."
    "While the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 16 percent on a total return basis last year, including reinvested dividends, the Census Bureau report showed median household income slipped to $51,017 from of $51,100 in 2011.
    The economy has struggled to sustain growth rates of more than 2.5 percent since the recession ended.
    Although the bulk of the more than 8 million jobs lost during the downturn have been recouped, many of the jobs have been in services industries such as retail and restaurants that typically do not pay well."

    The evidence is there. No one wants to look.
    Jan 10 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    The problem really is that there are over 45 million workage not in the labor force. filling the 3 million jobs might buy a bit of time, but the system is going to eat what is left of the economy.
    Jan 10 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    LFPR was also rising and had not been in a 15 yr decline as is the case now. US GDP growth then was due to all the other major manufacturer countries were in ruins from WW2 and hadn't rebuilt yet. The US was unopposed manufacturing wise. The picture now is so massively different I can't believe you made the comparison.
    Jan 10 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    What is the quality of those jobs? Which demographic is filling them? How much has the size of the potential labor force increased vs number of jobs created?
    2.2 million sounds nice, but if retirees are taking a large chunk of jobs and the number of those work age but not in the labor force are far outstripping job creation, not only is no improvement occurring, but the consumer based economy will collapse. Considering participation rate for the 25-54 group has been in long term decline it seems as if things are falling apart.
    There are 45.4 million NILF 16-64 (no disability).
    Extraordinary government and Fed programs are still in place years after the recession supposedly ended. I suspect, it never did end, but merely covered up.
    Jan 10 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BIG Employment Miss [View article]
    What should be concerning is that not only did the size of the Civ labor force decline (it was even less than Dec 2012), but the percentage of those within that smaller number that were active in the labor force declined also.
    Jan 10 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    such as what? it isn't due to retirees..they are the only demographic that is increasing participation rate. The meat of the workforce 25-54 yr olds have been declining for a long time. Gallup shows a decline to 42.9% (for 30hrs a week or more workers). This doesn't bode well in a consumer based economy. Eventually, this decline will crush the economy. Considering all the extraordinary measures still propping up the economy and we still see such degradation, I'm not sure we ever actually left the recession...just poured a can of paint over it and hoped it would stay glossy.
    Jan 10 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Payrolls Report That Matters Again [View article]
    People can't possibly be just looking at the headline rate since it only reflects a 1 week period in the month, and doesn't count those no longer in the workforce. Participation rate is key. Gallup poll out for December isn't promising showing the lowest participation rate (workers working 30hrs or more a week) in almost 3 yrs.
    http://bit.ly/KKcWam

    Though people like to point at the ADP numbers...the job gains appear to be in the retiree zone with older demographic showing the only increase in participation rate.
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K
    Jan 9 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Vs. Discouragement: The Decline In Unemployment [View article]
    This article is completely wrong. 65 and older is the only demographic increasing their participation rate.
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4K

    16-64 with no disability:
    Men:
    http://bit.ly/IAoJTQ
    Women:
    http://bit.ly/I8JC4I
    Oct 22 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson's Invokana: Be Careful [View article]
    No positions in any stocks mentioned..except the leader in diabetes drugs?...Merk...which you indeed did not mention.
    Apr 1 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +20K to 362K vs. 359K consensus, 342K prior (revised). Continuing claims +11K to 3.14M. [View news story]
    NSA almost the same as last year...how many $100s of Billions ($Trillions) spent to stay level?
    Feb 21 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. International Trade: The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services -$38.5B vs. consensus of -$46.0B, $48.6B (revised) in Nov. [View news story]
    Except the bea anticipated this in its initial estimate.

    While the drop in the deficit was much larger than the consensus expected, it was not far off from what the BEA assumed in the fourth quarter advance GDP data. The BEA anticipated that, excluding nonmonetary gold, the trade balance would fall to roughly -$40.0 bln. According to the actual data, the trade deficit excluding gold dropped to $41.0 bln. That means the huge “surprise” in the trade data will not result in an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP and may actually contribute more to the contraction."

    "It is likely that it was due to the week-long strike in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports that occurred after Thanksgiving. That delayed some shipments that normally would have been made in December into January."

    Read more: http://bit.ly/UKpVwn
    Feb 8 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 366K vs. 360K consensus, 368K prior. [View news story]
    True..but 90% of the people aren't employed...58% of the population is and declining.
    http://bit.ly/YX5y0f

    This is after massive intervention by the govt and fed that is still continuing.
    Feb 7 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
    " The U.S. prints its own money and never needs to default."
    True, that can be said for any country that prints its own money. Devaluing the currency though tends to have a rather negative impact allowed to go on too long. Commodities are already experiencing inflation. Economic growth via debt creation doesn't work for very long.
    Feb 5 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
    So the other agencies that didn't downgrade the US, but were just as complicit as SP....what are ok? Give me a break. EJ and SP get punished for correctly downgrading the US ( especially in light of WH now asking for much smaller cuts) get hammered and those that continue to not rate correctly get off the hook. Govt corruption is impressive.
    Feb 5 11:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,198 Comments
3,850 Likes