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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • GDP Q4 Advance Estimate At -0.1%: A Shocking Slip Into Contraction [View article]
    The market will continue to rise as long as QE and forced low interest rates continue. An economy based on govt backed loans, debt, printing money, etc. will not function for long.
    Jan 30 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Getting Hard To Be A Gold Bull These Days [View article]
    Not if you are in Yen....
    Jan 28 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Durable Goods: +4.6% vs. +1.6% expected, +0.7% prior. Ex-transport +1.3% vs. +0.4% expected, +1.6% prior . [View news story]
    Got to love that 110% increase M/M in defense aircraft and parts.
    Jan 28 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Overseas: Japan -0.94%. Hong Kong +0.39%. China +2.41%. India -0.01%. London +0.01%. Paris +0.08%. Frankfurt +0.03%[View news story]
    Sort of wondering where all this Chinese production is going. US and Europe are soft at best. Even CAT stated they and dealers aggressively reducing inventory and slowing production down to closer to end user levels.
    Are we seeing more busy construction work to keep the people employed and busy even though there really isn't any demand?
    Jan 28 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As many as 353 coal-fired electricity units could be retired as the costs of installing pollution controls on those plants won’t let them compete with cheaper natural gas and wind power, the Union of Concerned Scientists said in a report released today. Such a move would be warranted, the group says, because those rarely used plants have already outlived their 30-year lifespan and generate the most emissions of harmful pollutants and greenhouse gases. [View news story]
    The gasses in greenhouses that make plants grow better. Mainly H2O(g) and CO2. The big problem with coal plants are the methyl mercury that ends up in fish tissue.
    Nov 13 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The fiscal cliff matters: Even if the financial consequences aren't that severe, Josh Brown argues the mere perception of falling off the cliff would seriously harm financial markets. But if the fiscal cliff actually gets fixed, Jamie Dimon thinks the U.S. economy would boom, since the top problem holding it back is the looming tax increases and spending cuts that would kick in at year-end. [View news story]
    Markets can celebrate all they want...or fall. The fact is, middle America continues to decline. The average person owns few stocks...if any. Has little to no savings, and continues to earn less vs cost of living. Majority of new jobs are part time, not full time and certainly not living wage. The food stamp report was released very late and on a weekend (hmmm) showing a massive jump July to August. There are 4 million job openings ( not all living wage) and 40 million able bodied work age people (unemployed + part time that want full + NILF). This gap continues to grow regardless of the market going up or down. IF the US cannot quickly revamp itself, the fiscal cliff won't matter.
    Nov 11 05:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The payroll tax holiday will not be extended, according to JPMorgan, reducing U.S. disposable income next year by $125B and causing a significant contraction in the economy. So there's 0.6% knocked off next year's GDP growth, and we haven't got to the Bush tax cuts. (h/t David Schawel[View news story]
    I believe we are STILL involved in those conflicts, plus got involved in Libya, Yemen, Pakistan... Its been 4 yrs and here we still are. It's Bush's fault doesn't work. In 8 yrs of Bush the debt increased by ~4.3 Trillion... In 4 yrs of Obama it has increased $3.9 Trillion (then Sen Obama voted for the bailouts so he gets that one too).
    You can point fingers all you want, but the spending regime, along with extending the tax cuts every year during his 4 yrs falls to Obama. He has continued or accelerated most of the previous administrations policies.
    Bush was a lousy president, but I sure don't see any improvement in the present one.
    Nov 8 05:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The payroll tax holiday will not be extended, according to JPMorgan, reducing U.S. disposable income next year by $125B and causing a significant contraction in the economy. So there's 0.6% knocked off next year's GDP growth, and we haven't got to the Bush tax cuts. (h/t David Schawel[View news story]
    No it didn't. What happened was the government spent beyond it's means...and has continued to accelerate that.
    Bush tax cuts for the wealthy equated to $40 Billion decrease per year in revenue. The tax cuts for everyone equated to ~$360 Billion decrease per year. Notice deficit spending is in excess of $1 Trillion. Thus if the tax cuts for everyone expired we would still be in deficit/debt.

    Just wait and see what happens when 2013 rolls around and payroll taxes kick in, tax cuts expire (for anyone) and the HC tax hits individuals and businesses. Q1 2013 is going to be brutal.
    Nov 8 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -8K to 355K vs. 370K consensus, 363K prior. Continuing claims -135K to 3.12M. [View news story]
    ...another week with +300,000 NEW claims. Just think how 2013 will look when all those new taxes kick in and the HC hit on businesses.
    Nov 8 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -9K to 363K vs. 369K consensus, 369K prior. Continuing claims +4K to 3.26M. [View news story]
    +300,000 new claims a week for how many years is an upward economy? Majority of 'new' jobs are part time not full. Rate of workforce population growth is far outstripping jobs. Last months employment report was awful. NSA full time jobs decreased by 500,000 and part time increased by 1.2 million. The economy is stagnant and isn't degrading because the Fed keeps rate forced down and is in QEinfinity mode. The federal govt is the leading backer of loans (even though it is $16.2 Trillion in debt). One little hiccup and the whole thing falls apart.
    Nov 1 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q3 (1st estimate): +2.0% vs. +1.9% consensus, +1.3% previous. [View news story]
    Govt to the rescue. Accounted for .71% of the 2% gain. Deficit increase of $210 Billion Q3.
    Oct 26 08:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. gives a two-year, $4.7M contract to Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) for a stem cell therapy to treat "burns caused by thermal or radioactive bombs." With key milestones, the deal could be worth $106M over five years, the company (with $10M in annual revenue) reports. CYTX +17.1% premarket. [View news story]
    That's a bit worrisome....
    Sep 28 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3′s benefits to the real economy are debatable, but there's no doubt that as oil prices rise, higher pump prices are a blow to consumers. A successful QE that helps housing could trigger fundamental economic improvements to negate or outweigh higher oil prices; on the flip side, sustained high prices could seep into the cost structure of a broad range of other goods and services. [View news story]
    Hard to have a housing recovery when new jobs are low wage low skill.
    Sep 15 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug Consumer Price Index: +0.6% in-line with consensus, 0.0% prior. Core CPI +0.1% vs. +0.2% expected, +0.1% prior. [View news story]
    Y/Y food stamps (SNAP) +3.3%
    Sep 14 09:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former Obama economics advisor Christina Romer lays out her plan for "compassionate deficit reduction," which includes higher taxes on the rich and lower tax breaks for them, as well as increased medicare contributions. But she's also in favor of increased tax breaks for firms that hire more people, as well as cuts in defense, agriculture, high-speed rail and healthcare where there's inefficiency. [View news story]
    Starting 2013 taxes will go up on the upper middle class to the wealthy, plus we get nailed with the new healthcare tax. She wants to raise it even more? With an ever shrinking labor force participation, this leaves fewer and fewer to pay for more and more not working (because there aren't enough jobs not because they are just sitting around). Coupled with 50% or wage earners not paying federal taxes we are going to run into a serious problem.
    It would be nice to see the govt cut waste and spend responsibly BEFORE asking for more money. Pumping into an already inefficient machine makes no sense.
    Sep 9 08:00 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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