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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • CPI inches up 0.1% in April [View news story]
    Trend not looking so spiffy.
    http://bit.ly/1Lu0gxG
    May 22, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing home sales slip in April [View news story]
    Well I would hope so, homeownership rate has dropped to 1990s levels.
    May 21, 2015. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BEA finds issues with Q1 GDP calculation [View news story]
    Double seasonality change didnt work so now a residual seasonal factor gets added? Come on.
    May 20, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales continue to slow [View news story]
    Not sure savings has picked up. Total consumer debt continues to rise. Consumers have switched from revolving to non-revolving debt due to the attraction of low rates. Ex auto loans are at record high levels for record loan time. Additionally housing and healthcare inflation are running hot. By magnitudes, the largest personal consumption expenditures.
    May 13, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales continue to slow [View news story]
    Not a pretty long term trend, slow degradation.

    http://bit.ly/1PGs6Yf
    May 13, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Market Conditions Index [View news story]
    No comments...interesting. Decent composite of several factors, and closely watched by the Fed.
    May 11, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after April jobs report [View news story]
    I think people are correct to be dubious due to the forced low interest rates for years, QE pumping ( Fed, foreign or corp buybacks) as well as government loans propping up housing, auto manufacturing, etc.. This is not an economy standing on its own.
    May 8, 2015. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after April jobs report [View news story]
    NILF is good for determining pressure on those working ( think support for those not working), but it can be spoofed by retirees, or BLS population estimates, birth death, etc..

    Better metric is perhaps employment level for each age group. The level is indeed trending in a positive direction, but demographics wise is not so healthy. Seems to show a substantial reentry of retirees and a very sluggish growth ( or worse) in the below 55 age group. This suggests several concerns from stealth inflation ( models are weighted in the wrong areas, not taking more account for housing and healthcare, which are magnitudes highest of personal expenditures) to younger workers lacking needed skills.

    Though this last report wasn't bad ( not seasonally adjusted), it wasn't epic either. Considering the amount of extrodinary measures that have been in place, the length of time they have been in place, the amount of debt created and the continued decline in M2 velocity; it will take several reports to show a solid uptrend in the younger workforce to signal 'jobs recovery' in my mind.
    May 8, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after April jobs report [View news story]
    Howd those wages do?
    May 8, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP: Employment growth slowdown continues [View news story]
    Could be:
    Investors found a better yield elsewhere.
    Investors are stuffing mattresses.
    Rising risk in places such as Greece have investors unsettled.
    May 6, 2015. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP: Employment growth slowdown continues [View news story]
    This requires the creation of even more debt. we have backed ourselves into a corner. I dont disagree that all the projects you mention need to be done. The issue is the infrastructure is very inefficient and overly large. More infrastructure requires more money/debt. Really what needs to happen is take a city like Detroit, demo it and start over with much more space efficient living, compact and highly efficient infrastructure.
    Pointing a finger at political parties is a waste. Ultimately their policies are the same, only their social agenda is different. Government policy and taxation is the biggest killer of small biz ( the backbone of the country). Both parties are responsible. Frankly political parties should be done away with. They are epically divisive and only serve themselves and not the people they supposedly represent.
    May 6, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP: Employment growth slowdown continues [View news story]
    Problem is the economy is fueled by debt creation. Velocity of money continues to decline. This is not a healthy combination.
    http://bit.ly/1H0TBw7

    Most of the worker growth has been in the 55+ crowd with the 25-54 lagging badly.
    http://bit.ly/1H0TzED
    May 6, 2015. 10:01 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roadmaps: Grexit And A Crash This Fall [View article]
    Not looking good. At some point the farce cannot continue.
    http://bit.ly/1yWbB86
    Apr 23, 2015. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    Yea looks great out there...
    http://bit.ly/1E1vxXE
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil slips after hours on bearish stocks data [View news story]
    That was one heck of a build...
    Apr 7, 2015. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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