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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • The Market's Drunken Walk Continues [View article]
    Home Depot and Sears didn't show increased revenue...they showed increased profit. In other words they cut costs and prices came down.

    Home Depot.."annual sales fell 7 percent to $66.18 billion from $71.29 billion."

    "Sears Holdings Corp's (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) quarterly profit more than doubled as lower costs helped blunt the impact of slightly weaker revenue."

    WalMart's sales went up in overseas markets while the US fell. Targets is mentioned in the article as weak at best.

    Retail side, domestically, is in neutral at best.
    I don't think the Bears are gleeful about people loosing jobs....I think they are tired of people telling them the recession is over and we are in a recovery when mainstreet is clearly still in a decline.
    Feb 24 06:09 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Into the Simultaneous Rise in Gold and the U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Read an interesting article over at Cornerstoneri.

    The US debt problem is going to explode out of control (I think it is there already).
    "The Congressional Budget Office
    (CBO) estimates that over the next ten years an additional 11.6
    TRILLION dollars will be added to the national debt.
    To put this into context, the amount of new bills, notes and bonds the Treasury is going to have to issue over the next two years is about the same size as the entire Municipal bond market. By the time the decade concludes, the Treasury will have issued more debt than the entire outstanding Corporate and Municipal debt markets combined."

    It takes a bit to load...but seriously ugly news for the US.
    www.cornerstoneri.com/...
    May 12 12:07 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet on a Recovery [View article]
    "6% of homeowners
    are in extreme negative equity"

    Last report I read was 24%.
    "In all, more than 11.3 million, or 24 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages, were underwater at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009, up from 10.7 million or 23 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2009.
"
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    www.loanperformance.co...


    These numbers continue to rise.
    Mar 2 06:35 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 'Crash' Warnings for U.S. Markets [View article]
    If the US debt continues to skyrocket the doom and gloomers will be correct. You cannot prop up a system based on massive debt. Aussies already moving and raised interest rates...if more of Asia follows, the dollar will continue to die and our debt become un-payable.
    Oct 6 07:41 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Market Was Terrified Yesterday [View article]
    Reid hasn't put out a budget since 2009. Dems had control of the house from 2007 to end 2010. BOTH parties got us here. I agree the TP has completely lost it's way from it's original focus of fiscal responsibility, but trying to blame a small aspect of a political party that has been in existence for less than 3 yrs is hilarious.

    The debt growth must be stopped…now. The chance is here not later when we are looking at $20 trillion (on the books) debt. There is no economic recovery coming. The system in the US is completely broken. Government, banking down to individual mentality. If we do not change now, when? $16 Trillion? $20 Trillion? The economy cannot improve with massive debt equal to or exceeding 100% GDP.
    Jul 28 07:47 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report: An Actual Green Shoot [View article]
    The reason the numbers went down was the size of the total workforce shrank.

    Civilian labor force shrank by 98,000 (these people no longer counted).

    The total of 'not in labor force' spiked 291,000.

    Political Math explains it best:

    Let’s say we have 20 people in the workforce and 2 of them fit the technical definition for unemployed, which means that they’re actively looking for work. That gives us an unemployment rate of 10%.

    Now, let’s say one of the unemployed people got tired of being unemployed and decided to go back to school. She has now removed herself from the labor force, so we don’t count her when we count unemployed people. Let’s also say that one of the employed people lost his job and instead of looking for a new one, he decided to simply retire.

    As you can see we haven’t added any jobs… in fact we have fewer jobs than we did before. But we took a higher percentage of people out of the “unemployed” group than we did out of the “employed” group. It’s now 1 person unemployed and 17 people employed. We’ve “slashed” the unemployment rate to 5.5%.
    Dec 4 03:23 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman says the political class essentially must choose between asking the top 2% of earners "to go back to paying the tax rates they paid during the Clinton-era boom, or allowing the nation’s foundations to crumble... they’re choosing the latter. It’s a disastrous choice... those state and local cutbacks are a major drag on the economy."  [View news story]
    Why does the guy that missed calling the economic down turn and said fannie and freddie aren't a problem getting any air time?
    Aug 9 09:49 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The world’s governments suddenly seem to have found religion about curbing spending, bringing howls from a Keynesian camp of economists such as Paul Krugman who believe policymakers are taking away stimulus too soon - well before the global economic recovery can sustain itself.  [View news story]
    Government overspending in the US has been going on for years...clearly it didn't work. Time to do what the individual is doing...eat mac and cheese for a while and deleverage. It sucks, you are miserable...but when you come out the otherside....wow do you feel good and no monkeys on the back.
    Jun 9 06:10 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: -85K vs. -10K expected, +4K in Nov. (revised from -11K). Unemployment 10% vs. 10.1% expected, 10% prior. Avg. hourly earnings +$0.03 to $18.80. Workweek flat at 33.2 hours.  [View news story]
    Here is the big key numbers.

    Size of Labor force -661,000 vs -272,000 (revised down) last month....huge!!!!

    No Longer in Labor Force +843,000 vs +326,000 (revised up) last month....this is really huge....
    In the last 3 months 1.162 MILLION workers are gone...no longer counted!!!!!


    U6 is now 17.3% +0.1%
    Jan 8 08:51 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Dollar: Finally Front-Page News [View article]
    Debt is already being monetized isn't it with the FED snapping up almost half the T-bills recently offered?
    Oct 8 11:23 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. payrolls up 113K, unemployment rate at 6.6% [View news story]
    The number of unemployed rose by almost 900,000 M/M ( NSA) and participation rate degraded again. Just because people are no longer counted doesn't make it a pretty picture.
    Feb 7 08:55 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jobless Claims Will Rise All Year [View article]
    Those are seasonal jobs not full time.
    Aug 5 12:42 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet on a Recovery [View article]
    When tax rates are increased beyond a certain point what happens to tax revenues? They actually drop. Why? Because people change their habits and begin to move their money into tax free investments or off shore. This then removes that capital that could have been used for business start-ups, business investment or direct spending from the economy. Punishing success and savings is the worst economic idea on the planet.
    Mar 2 09:12 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet on a Recovery [View article]
    "The default rate increases sharply for homeowners with more than 20% negative equity."
    www.calculatedriskblog...

    If total negative equity totals $801 Bil and those over the threshold of 25% account for $660 Bil that is 82% of the total in the danger of default zone....not 6%.
    Mar 2 07:34 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    MF Global was doing great for a while too…..
    Dec 26 09:30 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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