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Papaswamp

Papaswamp
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  • Global Markets To Fed: No Rate Hike, The Strong Dollar Is Killing Us [View article]
    Ray Dalio seems to think the next move will be QE4.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. stock index futures higher after China rate cut [View news story]
    The Fed is stuck. If it fails to raise rates, it has to admit the economy is much weaker than claimed, and that +6 yrs of policy has failed. Seeing as how the velocity of money is heading towards zero, this may be the case. I suppose negative rates could be an option, but that would probably cause more turmoil. The world is definitely in an interesting place economically.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Markets To Fed: No Rate Hike, The Strong Dollar Is Killing Us [View article]
    The EU ( Germany in particular) is loving the stronger USD. China has several problems...most of which have little to do with the USD. Serious shadow banking problem, heavy debt on overleveraged companies/ business deals. The other problem is they gambled on a robust recovering US economy. This hasnt materialized.
    If the Fed doesn't raise rates in September they must admit 2 things.
    1. The economy is not doing as well as they have been claiming.
    2. Fed policies, after over 6 yrs of extrodinary intervention, have failed. This is something they have already partially admitted.
    "This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Fed’s large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. Thus, it is precisely the sharp decline in velocity that has offset the sharp increase in money supply, leading to the almost no change in nominal GDP (either P or Q)."
    http://bit.ly/1Cz5RzN
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Credit rises a greater than expected in April [View news story]
    Considering how tepid retail has been, I hope this isnt a signal bills are being paid via credit cards.

    http://bit.ly/1eTIoBK
    Jun 5, 2015. 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    I get the negativity. Equities are a result of Fed intervention, both QE and forced low rates as well as now record levels of buybacks. Frankly speaking, most people are still in a worse situation and have not recovered. A very tiny percentage make money from equities investments. Most people have very little savings much less anything invested. For the first time in 50 yrs, most kids in public schools come from low income households. Home ownership and formation continues to decline. This sets things up for a rather gloomy future.
    That all said, this is the first report where all of the internals were relatively solid. This must continue or this report will be a mere anamoly. Sure I get job growth has occurred , but wealth growth for most people has not. This is the key. An employee may be making a bit more, but if their housing and healthcare costs ( by far the 2 largest PCE as per GDP) are outstripping wage growth, they are still behind. Wealth growth for the majority must occur, or the system will collapse on itself regardless of how high markets go.
    http://bit.ly/1FZYL8y
    Jun 5, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    Possibly the best reports I have seen inside and out for quite a while. I would like to see this for several months in a row. Rates need to rise sooner rather than later.
    Jun 5, 2015. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CPI inches up 0.1% in April [View news story]
    Trend not looking so spiffy.
    http://bit.ly/1Lu0gxG
    May 22, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing home sales slip in April [View news story]
    Well I would hope so, homeownership rate has dropped to 1990s levels.
    May 21, 2015. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BEA finds issues with Q1 GDP calculation [View news story]
    Double seasonality change didnt work so now a residual seasonal factor gets added? Come on.
    May 20, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales continue to slow [View news story]
    Not sure savings has picked up. Total consumer debt continues to rise. Consumers have switched from revolving to non-revolving debt due to the attraction of low rates. Ex auto loans are at record high levels for record loan time. Additionally housing and healthcare inflation are running hot. By magnitudes, the largest personal consumption expenditures.
    May 13, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales continue to slow [View news story]
    Not a pretty long term trend, slow degradation.

    http://bit.ly/1PGs6Yf
    May 13, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Market Conditions Index [View news story]
    No comments...interesting. Decent composite of several factors, and closely watched by the Fed.
    May 11, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after April jobs report [View news story]
    I think people are correct to be dubious due to the forced low interest rates for years, QE pumping ( Fed, foreign or corp buybacks) as well as government loans propping up housing, auto manufacturing, etc.. This is not an economy standing on its own.
    May 8, 2015. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after April jobs report [View news story]
    NILF is good for determining pressure on those working ( think support for those not working), but it can be spoofed by retirees, or BLS population estimates, birth death, etc..

    Better metric is perhaps employment level for each age group. The level is indeed trending in a positive direction, but demographics wise is not so healthy. Seems to show a substantial reentry of retirees and a very sluggish growth ( or worse) in the below 55 age group. This suggests several concerns from stealth inflation ( models are weighted in the wrong areas, not taking more account for housing and healthcare, which are magnitudes highest of personal expenditures) to younger workers lacking needed skills.

    Though this last report wasn't bad ( not seasonally adjusted), it wasn't epic either. Considering the amount of extrodinary measures that have been in place, the length of time they have been in place, the amount of debt created and the continued decline in M2 velocity; it will take several reports to show a solid uptrend in the younger workforce to signal 'jobs recovery' in my mind.
    May 8, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after April jobs report [View news story]
    Howd those wages do?
    May 8, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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