The IMF's report that the U.S. needs to grow at 14% in perpetuity to close its fiscal gap leads Laurence Kotlikoff to conclude that "our country is broke and can no longer afford no-pain, all-gain" Ponzi solutions. Hard-core Keynesians who say any short-term stimulus won’t affect our ability to handle long-term deficits are "wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic." (also) [View news story]
"ime to get real folks. Soon it will be too late."
Max Keiser: 'World Entering Phase Two of Global Economic Crisis' [View article]
Chris, Keiser says, -Greek market is getting hammered, -East Europe is the next shoe to drop. -UBS has huge exposure to Dubai, thus UK taxpayer. -Gold purchase by governments (China and Germany, etc.) -UK and US Govts have and continue to allow banks to screw people.
-->>> basically end of the world type economic predictions.
On Nov 30 08:20 AM chris coonan wrote:
> For those of us who can't see Youtube (people in China), can you > paraphrase what the interview said? Thanks
JP Morgan Invents New U.S. Employment Numbers [View article]
No shock. the Government and many on Wall Street are trying the "if we tell them enough times, it will become true". Tact. The problems really are on main street. So many are in debt, so many have lost money, so many have depleted their savings, there isn't anything left for the '70% consumer based economy' to spend. Without the unemployed going back to work, and those remaining employed too scared to go out and spend the economy is seized up at a low level...or worse which I try not to think of.
While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear" economist David Rosenberg sees "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time." While the car is in the middle of the road right now, "is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?" [View news story]
The problem is, the economy cannot function without the continued govt/Fed intervention. Without the govt backing over 90% of all non-revolving loans and the Fed monetizing debt and forcing the interest rates to rediculously low levels, there would be no economy. Unfortunately these actions come a a cost. The cost will continue to build until we cannot afford it. Make money now while you can because when the music stops only the banksters and politicians will have chairs.
Will The Real Employment Situation Please Stand Up [View article]
I think the big problem is demographics and technology. Population continues to expand and technology continues to make businesses more efficient and need fewer workers....this is a subject which many avoid. We simply have too many work age people and not enough jobs. Even if we filled every job vacancy today (~3.7 million)...we would still have 3 million on some form of unemployment and 88 million work age people not in labor force. That translates to 37% of the potential workforce population (civilian non-institutional pop.) not working....that is huge.
I agree a big warning signal maybe the temp hiring decline. This could be signalling that businesses have reached par with economic demand.
"Let us actively make markets," says Jamie Dimon. We have the "deepest, widest and most transparent markets in the world," and that is a huge value to the investor. A balance needs to be struck between regulators who want less risk taken by market makers, and making sure that you can buy and sell securities actively enough to keep markets narrow for customers. (video) [View news story]
We have the "deepest, widest and most transparent markets in the world,"
Companies may not be hiring but they are spending: manufacturing and trade sales rose over 12% Y/Y in June, S&P 500 firms have upped dividends by almost $29B this year, and M&A's are increasing. The trends show "companies are more confident in the economic recovery" than some might think. [View news story]
Wages decreased and work hours increased. Many companies are hoarding cash (and easily liquid investments). This signals that they expect more difficult times. Rise in dividends and spending coincides with a decrease in the value of the dollar ( was at 83 this time last year) and rise in inflation (PPI shows clear costs increase).
The 'if you say it enough times they will believe it' method isn't working. Reality for main street…and eventually wall street will show what is really going on.
US debt now at $14.62 Tril. …or 97.4% debt to GDP. Smart companies see the brick wall coming. Though I'm not a fan of equities…companies with very low debt and high cash reserves will be the survivors when cuts come and we have a real correction in the market. GDP will go negative (if it hasn't already).
Why the Market Was Terrified Yesterday [View article]
The economy in the US is not going. Simply look at the employment participation rate (at 25 yr lows). Money is being made from money not product (except in overseas markets where the items are also produced). Most companies that made bank this quarter have done so internationally not domestically. Mitts healthcare plan is tremendously expensive and nearly bankrupting MA. Even infrastucture, which was supposed to be the big job creator is being farmed out. www.nytimes.com/2011/0...
I agree the repubs spent out of conrol…but Dems do the same. It is a duocracy. The only difference between the parties is the rhetoric.
The U.S. government can push back a default a month or more after the Aug. 2 deadline set by the Treasury Department, Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia says. The Fed and Treasury can work together to generate enough cash "probably for the next two or three months," adding credence to reports that the U.S. is telling big banks a default won't happen. (earlier: I, II) [View news story]
If you have to raid other funds to pay the bills…you are in technical default.
Republicans say they will refuse to raise taxes, but Peter Morici thinks they would be smart to reconsider. Barry Ritholtz wants to hit high net worth individuals whose numbers and net worth have swelled during the past two years. The population of HNWIs rose 8.6% in 2010 to 3.4M after rising 16.6% in 2009, according to a CapGemini report, and their wealth jumped 9.1% to $11.6T. [View news story]
How excited would you be to cough up $1.5 million of your pay to a government that subsidizes studies on the effect of cocaine on the libido of Japanese quail and other pet projects? www.cnsnews.com/node/6...
The point should be that the government doesn't deserve anymore money until it can show it can spend the people's money wisely.
It should be a 2 pronged program. First get spending under control and eliminate wasteful programs (there are 18 levels of management between the oil rig inspector and the Secty of Interior...in 1960 there were 7). In other words a balanced budget...there hasn't been a budget (balanced or otherwise) in over 800 days.
Once the govt has done that then taxes can be raised (on everyone) to impact the debt. We are all responsible for letting the idiots get out of control.
The next time you hear Republicans declaring their concern about deficits because of the future of our children, "remember that the clear and present danger to the prospects of young Americans isn’t the deficit," Paul Krugman writes. "It’s the absence of jobs." [View news story]
Part of the problem is the 2 party symbiotic system that has cleverly divided the voters thus too weak to realize both sides are playing the people.
Digging into the jobs numbers: Prior month's nonfarm payrolls revised up, from 103K to 121K. Average hourly earnings rose a better-than-expected 0.4%. The total number of unemployed (U-6), a broader measure of those looking for work or a better job, fell to 16.1%. Consensus forming that the overall report not as bad as the headline number. [View news story]
NILF increased by 2.2 million. Labor force and participation rate (not seasonally massaged) both decreased. This is the wrong direction for all those numbers. Look as the NSA numbers not the headline SA junk.
The IMF's report that the U.S. needs to grow at 14% in perpetuity to close its fiscal gap leads Laurence Kotlikoff to conclude that "our country is broke and can no longer afford no-pain, all-gain" Ponzi solutions. Hard-core Keynesians who say any short-term stimulus won’t affect our ability to handle long-term deficits are "wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic." (also) [View news story]
It's too late...
Face It, Fannie and Freddie Belong in the Government Budget [View article]
House Decides to Audit the Fed [View article]
Max Keiser: 'World Entering Phase Two of Global Economic Crisis' [View article]
Keiser says,
-Greek market is getting hammered,
-East Europe is the next shoe to drop.
-UBS has huge exposure to Dubai, thus UK taxpayer.
-Gold purchase by governments (China and Germany, etc.)
-UK and US Govts have and continue to allow banks to screw people.
-->>> basically end of the world type economic predictions.
On Nov 30 08:20 AM chris coonan wrote:
> For those of us who can't see Youtube (people in China), can you
> paraphrase what the interview said? Thanks
JP Morgan Invents New U.S. Employment Numbers [View article]
While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear" economist David Rosenberg sees "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time." While the car is in the middle of the road right now, "is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?" [View news story]
Will The Real Employment Situation Please Stand Up [View article]
I agree a big warning signal maybe the temp hiring decline. This could be signalling that businesses have reached par with economic demand.
The Solar Bubble Has Officially Burst - Survivors Will Ultimately Capture More Market Share [View article]
"Let us actively make markets," says Jamie Dimon. We have the "deepest, widest and most transparent markets in the world," and that is a huge value to the investor. A balance needs to be struck between regulators who want less risk taken by market makers, and making sure that you can buy and sell securities actively enough to keep markets narrow for customers. (video) [View news story]
I spewed my wine….wow the man can lie.
Companies may not be hiring but they are spending: manufacturing and trade sales rose over 12% Y/Y in June, S&P 500 firms have upped dividends by almost $29B this year, and M&A's are increasing. The trends show "companies are more confident in the economic recovery" than some might think. [View news story]
The 'if you say it enough times they will believe it' method isn't working. Reality for main street…and eventually wall street will show what is really going on.
US debt now at $14.62 Tril. …or 97.4% debt to GDP. Smart companies see the brick wall coming. Though I'm not a fan of equities…companies with very low debt and high cash reserves will be the survivors when cuts come and we have a real correction in the market. GDP will go negative (if it hasn't already).
Why the Market Was Terrified Yesterday [View article]
www.nytimes.com/2011/0...
I agree the repubs spent out of conrol…but Dems do the same. It is a duocracy. The only difference between the parties is the rhetoric.
The U.S. government can push back a default a month or more after the Aug. 2 deadline set by the Treasury Department, Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia says. The Fed and Treasury can work together to generate enough cash "probably for the next two or three months," adding credence to reports that the U.S. is telling big banks a default won't happen. (earlier: I, II) [View news story]
Republicans say they will refuse to raise taxes, but Peter Morici thinks they would be smart to reconsider. Barry Ritholtz wants to hit high net worth individuals whose numbers and net worth have swelled during the past two years. The population of HNWIs rose 8.6% in 2010 to 3.4M after rising 16.6% in 2009, according to a CapGemini report, and their wealth jumped 9.1% to $11.6T. [View news story]
www.cnsnews.com/node/6...
The point should be that the government doesn't deserve anymore money until it can show it can spend the people's money wisely.
It should be a 2 pronged program. First get spending under control and eliminate wasteful programs (there are 18 levels of management between the oil rig inspector and the Secty of Interior...in 1960 there were 7). In other words a balanced budget...there hasn't been a budget (balanced or otherwise) in over 800 days.
Once the govt has done that then taxes can be raised (on everyone) to impact the debt. We are all responsible for letting the idiots get out of control.
The next time you hear Republicans declaring their concern about deficits because of the future of our children, "remember that the clear and present danger to the prospects of young Americans isn’t the deficit," Paul Krugman writes. "It’s the absence of jobs." [View news story]
Digging into the jobs numbers: Prior month's nonfarm payrolls revised up, from 103K to 121K. Average hourly earnings rose a better-than-expected 0.4%. The total number of unemployed (U-6), a broader measure of those looking for work or a better job, fell to 16.1%. Consensus forming that the overall report not as bad as the headline number. [View news story]