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pied piper

pied piper
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  • Western Asset Mortgage Q4 Changes And Outlook [View article]
    Dips away WMC!
    13mil shares below book is pathetic
    Apr 4 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: PV-10 Reflects Another Mississippian Nightmare In The Making [View article]
    Do you buy in a calendar spread to mitigate any loss potential or use options to cover the outlier risk?
    Apr 1 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: PV-10 Reflects Another Mississippian Nightmare In The Making [View article]
    Now that is a sensible trade!

    Really Daniel. how can you possibly use futures curves for 2015 and beyond when they have been dead wrong since 2010. Which was when the current oil contract qtrly MA was last seen below $90. Now how does that PV-10 look with a 90 to 95 oil price , NGL @40-45 and NG $4 min, $6 in winter? What is important is where the market yield will be when final dilution is made, currently ECT has traded quite well in this regard, post dividend at 25 times quarterly dividend run rate. For SDR, that would be $8 (for a 32 cent dividend )come fall 2015 after a 40% payout. I don't think the SP will return that much, So I have a buy here as a yield play to offset the yield reduction in the MREIT space. Granted this trust and others have been a bad deal for the greater part of its life, but it will provide a stable yield, at some point, above the market yields of the MREIT. With yields approaching 10 to 12% there, I can see 14 to 16% here.

    Thank you for the analysis, as always it was an informative read
    Apr 1 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Costs And Differentials Create A Second Chance In Triangle Petroleum [View article]
    Bull
    Jan 28 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why DryShips Is A Sell [View article]
    So everyone all quiet on Dryships now? I should see my twos real soon. But still not a buyer, gonna wait til ORIG reports a delay in the rollout of the next rig
    Jan 26 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Still Overvalued [View article]
    I like the article, Alex. Excellent projection table gives any investor a window into the future share price of CHKR. As such, the projected 2016 target price with a 14% projected dividend yield expectation is 7.04 and using the more recent (2013) 18% dividend is $5.48. I fully expect the near-term yield to approach 30% in the coming quarters. So divvy catching this one becomes perilous. So it should trade down to 9 after ex-d. Near-term puts may coa on a position normally, but that doesn't appear to work in this case, but you might make 70 cents on the May puts.

    Do you think a similar fate rests with SDR as well? They do not see the same dilution for subordinated shares as CHKR and the future NG components should add to 2014 revs against the declining expenses and reduced oil production. I can get projected 2015 numbers ranging from 8.88 to 11.54 on that one.
    At some point these trusts will achieve a stable ROI on newly invested capital. The same problem occurred with MREITs and now newly invested capital (last 3 mos) is being rewarded. By year end, those issues will trade above book to compensate for the next dividend unless rates move along to 4%. An event I don't see until 2015 now. These trusts just need to get below the book . Then the yield will probably approach 12% or 34 times quarterly dividend, just as MREITs are doing now. Maybe this year, maybe next.
    Jan 25 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chelsea Therapeutics May Be A Revenue Generating Biotech By The End Of 2014 [View article]
    Nice hold of the low 4s today, still too big a short position in the 5.25 area for me, but worth a watch and a darn good option trade. Option volume have bet more long vs short with 20K Feb and 15K Mar at the above market strikes. I like the Jun 4/9c for 1.20 and the 5/11 for .95. bullish spreads. Not great put protection but maybe worth a look in the 5s.

    Thanks for the article and wondering aloud about the drug price tag being over 240K like Gattex and RPTP and ALXN drugs are as well.
    Speaking of buyout suitor, as a shareholder of Alexion, they could use a product diversification in their near future. A mere 3% dilution and a 100m should do the trick around $12 bucks for maybe 5000 patients over next few years (a billion plus revs?). Hey Leonard, hey Vikas, you got that?
    Jan 16 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Industry Insider Is Shorting Facebook [View article]
    Rational you are, I suspect some short work can get a 3 to 5 buck move each and every time these articles are printed, Then after earnings they have to start again at 65.

    Then next qtr at $70

    and then 75 and then 80 and we'll discuss the long term strategy again to get it to $29 from there.
    Jan 16 09:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Likely To Keep Pulling Back Short-Term [View article]
    That is resistance you are looking at very big resistance
    Jan 14 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Likely To Keep Pulling Back Short-Term [View article]
    Ditto raven, nice call. Puts could be bought at $5 and after the CEO screwed his "LT investors" again, but not now. I was so busy selling my calls in anger, that I forgot to pursue the obvious with the MAR5/5.5P as I like some delta. I have my tiny LT investment from 1.60 and another tiny $7 one. Just guess which one is older. I still await the twos.

    But for those LTers who remember the '07 rally, we have not broken the 20 wk line and rolled the oscillator below 50 yet, so holding 3.50 and buying time the next month or so is th hope. In this market, I don't like such a volatile ,economic centric issue as DRYS. When my charts tell me to buy VIX options, I look what to bail on or what is good to hold and pays dividends.

    Happy trades
    Jan 14 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Now, Its Growth Will Soon Be Over [View article]
    I forgot that MySpace had a billion users and billions in revenues, yeah whats up that ?

    Your probably correct about stagnation, right around 300 to 400 billion mkt cap or $135 in about 4yrs
    Jan 12 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Trading At Steep Discounts To Book Value Violates Efficient Market Theory [View article]
    Given The TLT bullish move on Friday, the whole sector is due for a lg move on the weekly chart, MORT can get to 25/26, so MORL will double the return with a fairly stable payout now. I have doubled up for the last dividend and intend to double some more versus buying the the individual names like NLY. I am still keeping AGNC, MTGE, WMC and adding to NYMT. But the best six month trade is MORL. Remember MORL is more discounted to book than its components due to its leverage. Even if 10yr rates do hit 325, the book destruction witnessed thus far have more than compensated. So even AGNC at around 24 is still 20% plus dividend, very compelling in this very high market

    JMO, good luck
    Jan 11 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Surprise From DryShips [View article]
    At 25 the PBV is around 4, not likely. In bubblicious '07 the stock went that route but they made over $3 eps ($120m) in a qtr or about 100% ROE in a quarter. More often it trades below book to 1.5 to 1.8 book as in 2005. This cycle, should it be a good one, that'd be 10.5 to 12.6 using $7 book after some profits (?g).
    Or you could take the peak number in 2007 and divide it by dilution 120*35/450= 9.33. All good targets. although I think the cash flow analysis using ORIG peak value is best, but I expect that to be undermined by their intent to go the trust route to spinoff cash flows.
    Some better brain can figure that one out, I have layed off the ORIG trade since it was announced and their it sits at 19...
    Then again if the cycle is postponed another year or we are hitting a soft patch as in 2011, some shippers are not making it to 2015.
    Jan 11 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Surprise From DryShips [View article]
    If you think of Genco as a call option on the BDIY, it is a favorable bet from the ones to reach 4 and if the cycle is good as you say to be in the 6 to 8 range for about 400%. That will be over 6 months or so. Lots of resistance at 6 to 7 on DRYS and now again at 5. So risk/ reward for GNK becomes favorable unless DRYS gets down around 2.50.
    Jan 11 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Surprise From DryShips [View article]
    My mother told me never to gamble and the stock market is gambling.
    I like the Saints plus the points for 5 bills and DRYS when it revisits the 2's or if the BDIY stops falling and China holds. That not timing or gambling, just the facts. ;)
    Jan 11 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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