User 492911

Options Trader Friday Outlook: Deja Vu All Over Again?

Kindly take a look at the current posting expressing distrust of this morning's government statistical report showing a Nov. retail sales rise. Apparently the methodology and sampling set were both altered to boost this figure, and a pitiful boost it was when higher gas prices account for much of this 'joyful' news. By Jan., we should be reading the point-of-sale totals from the retail industry. So too, the government supplied figures for falling unemployment are not confirmed by TrimTabs, Shadowstats, and the ADP reports. Post holiday layoffs, profit-taking sell downs, dismal sales, soaring foreclosures, and failed treasury auctions will bring this imaginary recovery to a sobering halt. Have you noticed how slow these last fews points in the quity indexes have accumulated on correspondingly lessening volume? Just like a roller coaster reaching its apogee. Enjoy the view from this top as we will only be up here for another week or two at best.


On Dec 11 03:52 PM we_trade wrote:

> Nothing can stop this bull market
> good articles; fianceopinionss.blogsp...

Unemployment Rate Recedes - Worst of Downturn Is Over

We have seen such disparities between State unemployment reports and those of the B(L)S that caution is warranted. Of particular concern is that the ADP report which derives its employment counts from salary taxes paid into the government by employers is showing no rise corresponding to this claim of a multi-month cumulative significant decrease in unemployment. We may well discover that this remarkable decrease in the unemployed is an entirely misleading artifact triggered when large numbers of the unemployed are dropped from the ongoing count as their benefits expire. This light in the tunnel of our recession could well be.....

Bank of America: Repayment Plan Doesn't Signal an Improved Economy

Webmaster take note: I am disturbed to see this cheap marketing scam flogged on just about every article I read. I thought this website was solely for financially related discussions, not an el cheapo variant of the Home Shoppers Network. Can anyone block this low-ball sales pitch?


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Dubai: The Great Unravelling

How mean spirited and unecessarily ad hominum


On Nov 27 06:52 PM FB5000 wrote:

> Dude. Seriously
>
> You are getting a degree from a C list B-school. Sounds like you
> have never had a job. In 1987 you were - what? 1?
>
> Do I have that correct? Maybe a D list school.
>
> Thanks for playing.

Dubai: The Counter Trade

Dubai's debt postponement is not significant in and of itself, nor should it have been a surprise as their predicament has been known for a year. This could even have been a self-engineered mini correction in which they and their wealthy adjacent cousins made back much of that easily surmountable deficit in a single day by heavily shorting world traded indexes spread over a number of exchanges and then reversing at their created trough. As an example, a single S&P contract shorted at 1110 and reversed at 1072 to 1095, one would have made $6K. We would be naive to assume this is merely 'conspiracy theory.' What it does show despite this supposition, is how very fragile and over reactive this world speculative bubble is. There are many other extend & pretend shams that could be outed in the coming months, not to speak of mounting foreclosures, rising unemployment, lackluster holiday retail sales, and a forthcoming Tsunami of CRE resets, any one of which would reverse this bear market rally, and, in combination, bust all illusions of a recovery.

The Wisdom of Seven Charts, When Emotion Is Detached

My conclusion on seeing these charts is hardly 'Onward and Upward' as the author concludes with childish extrapolation. I have never seen such 'ripe' conditions for a major reversal. Dubai's 60B$ postponement is not significant in and of itself. Dubai's predicament has been known for a year. This could even have been a self-engineered mini correction in which they and their wealthy adjacent cousins made back much of that easily surmountable deficit. What it does show however, is how very fragile and over reactive this world speculative bubble is. There are many other extend & pretend shams that could be outed in the coming months, not to speak of mounting foreclosures, rising unemployment, lackluster holiday retail sales, and a forthcoming Tsunami of CRE resets, any one of which would reverse this bear market rally, and, in combination, bust all illusions of a recovery.

In 2010 It'll Be Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

What will stop this rise in equities? ...I'm taking a severe pounding in my S&P Jan & Feb puts, and I too am amazed that every time there is a correction which is warranted on the basis of rising unemployement, negative trade balance, unprecedented expansion of Federal debt, mounting foreclosures more than offsetting touted increases in home sales, etc, within the very next day our 'dear' government (as in Dear Leader') announces yet another spending program. It was not a coincidence to see that within 4 hours of the 10.2% unemployment increase, the Aug and Sept figures were "revised" to magically add 90,000 jobs to offset this potentially negaitve impact? Basically, we are being lied to on an unprecedented scale. However, they will have a very hard time generating positive 'recovery' spin on the dismal retail spending numbers in the forthcoming holiday. This speculative bubble will be brought up short by the American populace as it 'votes' with its wallet. Add to that mounting foreclosures and unemployment and we will surely have a major correction no later than mid January. The investment-bank-casinos will not be hurt as they will short the markets, making even more money, but accelerating the plunge replicating the 1930 fall after that bear market rally. The higher these markets go, the bigger the fall. DOW 10,350 or thereabouts would equal the 1930 rally. Veritas will win out my fellow alumni.


On Nov 11 07:15 PM Harvard_trader wrote:

> Can anything stop this bull market?
>
> good articles: financeopinionss.blogs...

Commercial Lending Suffering from Weak Balance Sheets

If business loans are sought from bonds sold through investment banks, this only diverts the debt burden to corporate bonds making them a riskier proposition. Already, we realize that conventional banks are bracing for a severe downturn in Comm. R/E, hence their reluctance to issuing business loans. Should this 'jobless recovery' fail as Prechter and Savoldi predict for the immediate future, then the larger investment houses have only one recourse to insulating themselves from the consequences of such a downturn resuming. All that keeps them 'afloat' is speculative trading using the flood of Federal funds that were intended for loan distribution. Their loan porfolios, credit card divisions and all else are in the red. Being so dependent on their trading divisions which are largely run by autonomous main frames, it is only a question of what trips the 'sell' algorithm. These are loaded guns with hair triggers. This is a very dangerous game in which the macro players know that the first to go heavily short 'wins' the biggest profits. The markets may yet climb a bit further as the 'biggies' play a game of chicken among themselves as to who calls the top on this bear market rally blow-off. When the 'turn' occurs, the sell off will be rapid and severe, leaving the American people devastated and the US economy shattered. As an historic precedent, the '29-'30 bear market rally deserves consideration. The parallels are uncanny. DOW 10,300 approximates this retracement. Our government has 'shot its bolt' to stimulate this non-recovery, just as many investors plunged into '29-'30 recovery only to lose even more severely than they had in the Autumn of 1929.