Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View me39's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Power Of Fear: Is Gilead A Buy Or Sell In 2015 After 1st Quarter Guidance? [View article]
    Thank you, I understand how revenue works but apparently you don't know how to read in between the lines. Gilead was forced into the discount because of the ABBV/ESRX deal, otherwise it would have given the same discounts last year and it wouldn't have signed so many deals shortly after ABBV/ESRX deal. There is no question Gilead has a superior product to AbbVie's, but the question is how much is that superiority worth, and evidently it is worth less than the consensus previously thought. I'm not judging whether or not GILD is a buy right here, but if you (and the author) had an impartial view, you would realize that the announced discount was unequivocally negative and you should adjust your expectations.
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Power Of Fear: Is Gilead A Buy Or Sell In 2015 After 1st Quarter Guidance? [View article]
    You kept your $135 price target from your January 16th article even though the announced 46% gross to net discount for 2015 was a complete surprise? Maybe Mr. Market is a little bit too fearful at the moment, but you are way too optimistic to not incorporate this new negative information into your price target.
    Feb 4, 2015. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Best Idea For 2015 - American Airlines [View article]
    I think a 10x EPS assumption is fair, but you should be using an after-tax EPS and add in the NPV of the NOL carryforwards.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital: Acquire Emerging Alternative Asset Manager At Large Discount [View article]
    The idea seems interesting, but this article is a very tough read and the author makes some mistakes: 1)AGNC and MTGE are mortgage REITs, not BDCs; 2) The alternative asset manager market caps are incorrect since they don't factor in the privately held units; 3) EBITDA is not a very good metric for valuing alternative asset managers, which are usually valued using Economic Net Income (ENI) or distributable earnings. Regardless, I am going to look further into ACAS
    Dec 30, 2014. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    Why no mention that the Express Scripts will cover Viekira Pak for all appropriate patients, not just the patients with advanced stages of the disease? So for all the patients and doctors that complain about receiving a slightly inferior treatment, there will be many more patients that are happy to finally receive a cure. In an ideal world where money wasn't an issue, everyone would receive the superior treatment, but we don't live in an ideal world and there are trade-offs.
    Dec 23, 2014. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jorge Posada's (Financial) Slump [View article]
    What does active management have to do with staying the course? People pull money out of actively managed funds just as easily as they do passively managed funds and I don't think there is any evidence to support that actively managed funds in general outperform passively managed funds in bear markets.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Herbalife Survive The Latest Evidence That It Is A Pyramid Scheme? [View article]
    If Herbalife claims that the comments were taken out of context, why don't they release the videos with the comments in their entire context? It's the same rebuttal tactic Herbalife has been using for the past two years - either refute the accusation without presenting any counter-factual evidence or make an ad hominem attack. Herbalife is just playing into the cognitive dissonance of its supporters and buying itself time before the inevitable collapse.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avis Budget: Something Doesn't Smell Right [View article]
    CAR includes fleet depreciation in its adjusted EBITDA figure, so you need to add that back before subtracting vehicle capex if you want to calculate free cash flow the standard way.
    Dec 14, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy [View article]
    You should be highly skeptical of any asset allocation strategy that back-tests well in any time-frame over the past thirty years, and you should be even more when the time frame is the past five year. Bonds were in a thirty year bull-market that ended last year and interest rates are still near historic lows. I'd like to see the author use the late 70's/early 80's to back-test his strategy.
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Stiritz' Passion For Shake Mix Costs POST Shareholders [View article]
    CNBC just announced that Michael Johnson is going to exercise 750,000 options that expire in December and that the Company said this is a vote of confidence. I just checked the most recent proxy statement and these options have an exercise price of $7.75. Even Bill Ackman and Matt Stewart would exercise these options. How is deciding not to leave over $25 million on the table a vote of confidence? Herbalife has spewed out a lot of BS in its history, but this has to take the cake.
    Nov 25, 2014. 05:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JG Wentworth: An Interesting Story Whose Ending Relies On One Fundamental Question [View article]
    Do structural settlement and lottery winning annuity payment terms change based on interest rates? For example, would a $10 million settlement paid over 10 years today ($1 million per year) be paid over 8 years ($1.25 million per year) if the ten year rate moved up 300 bps (bond math is not correct here - for illustrative purposes only). If so, this would offset JGW's higher cost of debt.
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: The Disaster Will Not Abate [View article]
    Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. What do you call the SHLD bulls who have been fooled over and over again for the past decade? I've got news for you, SHLD will never ever turn around its retail operations. There is some value in its real estate, but the value is debatable. I went through last year's Baker Street analysis pretty thoroughly using Loopnet and Costar and there are flaws. Some of the Baker Street property values closely matched per square foot values for recent transactions of non-anchor tenants in the area even though anchor tenant properties command much lower prices. Further, SHLD would have a tough time selling some of its mall properties considering that it already coexists in many of its mall locations with the two other biggest mall tenants - Macy's and JC Penney. Regardless, even if you use optimistic assumptions for the market value of SHLD's real estate, it would take many, many years and a lot of resources for SHLD to realize the market value of its properties. Meanwhile, SHLD's retail operations would continue to burn cash at a a higher rate than its real estate would appreciate and the Company would come closer and closer to defaulting (I'm aware that SHLD's corporate structure is extremely complicated and a default doesn't necessarily mean that equity holders would be wiped out, but any kind of default would be bad nonetheless). This is a similar concept to one of Einhorn's short theses on St. Joe Co. Why do you think SHLD is considering selling its stores to a REIT and leasing them back rather than selling them outright so they could be bought by or leased to a much more viable tenant? Having one of the worst retailers in America as your only lessee for a few hundred properties makes these properties worth a lot less. Unfortunately, SHLD does not have the luxury of time to try to get fair market value for these properties. Either that, or Lampert's hubris knows no bounds and he is still convinced he can turn SHLD's retail operations around after countless failed attempts.
    Nov 14, 2014. 10:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro To $30 Within 12 Months - The Comps Wall Street Isn't Talking About [View article]
    2.1x sales is overly generous. Like the author said, Beats serves a far larger addressable market. Plus, the GoPro and Beats brands are probably more important than the technology, and the Beats brand is stronger, has been relevant for longer, and the Beats management team has a much more proven track record of building and sustaining brands (Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre have been behind many successful music acts over many decades). And let's not forget Beats is ahead of GoPro in the media business with its streaming music service. Being the next Beats is not a best case scenario for GoPro, it is a fantasy for GoPro.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders, Accountants And The Meaning Of Herbalife [View article]
    One very important caveat of capitalism that you overlook is that free markets don't function properly without transparency, and Herbalife thrives because of its lack of transparency. In your corrupted form of capitalism, we would see a gross misallocation of resources to entities that merely transfer wealth (e.g. Herbalife) rather than entities that grow wealth, and our economy and society would fall to ruin. This is why we have business laws and regulations in place - unfortunately these sometimes come up short and need to be improved upon (e.g. pyramid scheme laws) or sometimes they reach too far (e.g. Dodd Frank).
    Oct 29, 2014. 01:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Lots Action Calls Entire Dollar Store Concept Into Question [View article]
    Big Lots is bringing back coolers and freezers to appeal to its core food customers, who generally fall in the lower-income and lower-middle-income spectrum, and so that it can accept SNAP and EBT cards, i.e. electronic food stamps (that was in the article you cited, how come you didn't mention it?). And FYI, Big Lot's same store sales have been positive the past two quarters and are expected to remain positive in the second half of the year after being negative for eight straight quarters, so the Company's turnaround efforts have have been working. You should do some due diligence beyond reading an newspaper article before jumping to conclusions.

    From pg. 25 of the 2013 10-K:
    "First, we tested a cooler and freezer program in approximately 100 stores in 2013. The goal of the program was to increase the convenience of the shopping
    experience for our core customer in our Food category. We determined that our core customer could not complete a portion of the weekly grocery shopping in our stores, as we did not offer refrigerated and frozen food products needed to complete her basket. Our test results were positive; therefore, we will be implementing our cooler and freezer program to approximately 600 additional stores in 2014. Additionally, by introducing coolers and freezers, the Food
    assortment that we will offer in many of these locations will qualify for certain governmental assistance programs, such as the supplemental nutrition
    assistance program (“SNAP”), which will provide our customer with another source of funds to spend at our stores. We believe these programs will help drive comps in both our Food and Consumables categories."
    Sep 26, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment