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Contheon

Contheon
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  • An Easy Way To Insure Against A Big Loss With Your ETFs [View article]
    This is a simple modification of the market trend signal used in the IVY Portfolio. Books have been written about it.

    The IVY Portfolio uses a 5 year chart, monthly frequency, and 10 period moving average. Take 20 days as the number of trading days in a month and a 10 month average and you essentially have the 200 day moving average. The key difference is IVY looks at the trend once a month... so the results can be different. Then IVY goes into an asset allocation that you may or may not agree with.

    I use a 10 year chart to keep the financial crisis in sight. Letting the market tell you the trend would have avoided 67% of the selloff ... and provided a simple re-entry point. There have only been 2 false signals since then ... the Greek and Euro panics.

    If you want simple for the US Stock Market, use the IVY designated ETF ... VTI. When VTI identifies a changing market trend (that's all it is), apply it to your US Stock holdings.
    Mar 11 06:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Pyramid Schemes Inherently Fraudulent? [View article]
    An excellent description of our Social Security system.

    Just substitute taxpayer for "investor".

    So, the greatest Pyramid scheme of all time is actually legal.
    Mar 10 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Are The True Dividend Champions, And Safer Than You May Think [View article]
    Over the Past 10 Years, the price of:

    NLY -43%
    JNJ +83%
    O +85%
    MMP +400% (not in this article)

    Dividend Champions are not simply defined by yield. Total return matters.
    Mar 9 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - Bank Of America Is The Bank For 2014 (1/6/14) [View article]
    How about the real call Cramer made on Bank of America... just the facts.

    In Jan 2011, he named BAC one of his 2 stocks of the year. It declined all year, he then started to attack the CEO, and never mentioned his "stock of the year" call again.

    In 2012, BAC began to rebound. Cramer continued to be negative on the stock. Buffet got in around the low $7.00 range. BAC had a strong year.

    In 2013, BAC was up around 50%. Cramer only began to "like it again" when it got above his original Jan 2011 call.

    Fast forward to yesterday .... and it's a favorite again. With the same CEO he hated since 2011.

    Unfortunately, this happens often. His opinion changes with the stock price. He's entertaining and fun to watch. But his real performance is no where close to what he thinks it is in his own mind.
    Jan 7 02:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HTA's Recipe For Healthy Returns - Strong Operating Fundamentals Plus A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    The point is ... it was a bad call.

    REITs are the only asset class you follow. The market was up over 6% in the same timeframe. So investors that only focus on REITs underperformed.

    It's that simple. It's not market timing, it's finding the best opportunities in the Market, not just REIT land.
    Nov 7 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HTA's Recipe For Healthy Returns - Strong Operating Fundamentals Plus A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Brad,

    On May 7th, in your article "Laws Of Cap Rate Compression And Several REITs With Mispriced Risk" HTA was one of your favorites at $13.00. Today it closed at $11.05 ... 15% lower. So now it may have a margin of safety. In case you forgot, here are your HTA comments:

    "Some of my Favorite Risk-Aligned REITs Today

    Today Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) hit $13.00 and an all-time high. As I wrote a few days ago, medical office buildings (or MOBs) performed well "during the downturn (the vacancy rate has been much more stable) largely due to the retention costs and the reduced supply of new product." In this case of HTA, the largely (90%) MOB-focused model has created strong investor demand as over 57% of the company's tenants are credit rated and the Scottsdale-based REIT has a rent coverage ratio of 9x (much better than the other healthcare operators that have less safe rent coverage of around 1.5x).
    HTA has a market cap of around $2.94 billion and a current dividend yield of 4.43%. Armed with a BBB- credit rating (S&P) and a strategically diversified portfolio (12.7 million square feet of gross leasable area located in 27 states), HTA is able to acquire high-quality (accretive) MOBs creating a uniquely competitive healthcare REIT. I was able to catch up with Scott Peters, CEO of HTA, earlier today:
    Cap rates across all real estate sectors continue to compress as investors' search for yield in today's low rate environment. In the medical office sector, this general trend has been amplified, as new investors recognize the asset class and become aware of the broad tailwinds benefiting the sector - including the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, the aging of the U.S. population, and the strong growth forecast for both healthcare expenditures and employment. As a buyer, we continue to be disciplined in our approach identifying assets with long term value located on major Healthcare campuses. "
    Nov 6 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest In REITs With A Margin Of Safety To Reduce Risk And Enhance Returns [View article]
    Brad,

    On past quotes and recommendations, don't fall into the trap of "selective recall".

    I'm not going to go back to all the articles you wrote since May 21, just a key one on Reality Income (http://bit.ly/vlZACA) on May 24.

    1. In that article you presented 23 Charts. None of them were the Fast Graph Chart of Price to FFO and "Margin of Safety".

    2. In fact in the article you argued: "I don't think REITs are in a bubble. Valuation metrics (such as Price/FFO) depend on the assumption that today's FFO is a good representation of FFO in the future. I think REITs are likely to see strong growth in FFO going forward, as operating fundamentals (rents and occupancy levels) improve. Investors are setting current stock price targets that take into account strong growth in FFO going forward."

    3. You went on to say: "I see no indication that a REIT bubble is forming and I see no evidence that indicates REIT dividends are a poor consolidation to capital growth. Quite clearly, REITs are outperforming all other sectors and, in fact, undervalued when you compare historical relationships with investment-grade and high-yield bonds."

    4. And Finally, an entry price for O: "Current investors owning shares in Realty Income should sleep well at night knowing that the "blue chip" portfolio has a superior management team and any cushion for error (or margin of safety) is reflected in the premium pricing we see today. For investors considering purchasing Realty Income shares today, I would wait patiently for a pullback (it's coming, I promise) and I recommend a target entry price of $50.00."

    Reality Income closed at $39.20 Friday, 22% below your recommended entry price.

    No one expects any contributor to be right all the time, but accept reality as it is. Selective recall was made famous by Jim Cramer. Don't fall into the trap.

    You have a lot to offer on REITs, and I enjoy your articles. And yes, I also cherry picked your quotes as well ... to make a point.
    Sep 16 06:32 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The PEG Ratio [View article]
    "I would argue for using a forward P/E since the stock market is forward looking" is the issue. If you apply this logic, PE ratios would also be based on future earnings.

    APOL's actual PEG ratio is 3.6. It highlights the fantasy of using "Projected EPS Growth".

    Forward PEGs may be of interest, but they are very different than actual PEGs.
    Aug 27 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long NovaGold [View article]
    You may remember that NG was one of Cramer's favorites ... before the stock began to fall. Then he ditched the stock and stopped talking about Gold, a typical Cramer strategy when he makes a bad call. The stock was in the $10-$12 range when he was recommending it.

    You might want to check the Barrick Gold website. They are the key partner in the mine and control the financing. The last time I check, they listed the Donlin gold mine as not meeting their investment criteria. Until it does, the mine will remain a great future hope.
    Jul 16 05:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REIT Meltdown, I Told You So [View article]
    Let's see ... the Title is Meltdown (as in recent) and "I told You So".

    Since May 22 (open) the day the market selloff and REIT Meltdown began, all Star SWAN Reality Income (http://bit.ly/vlZACA) has Melted Down MORE than Annaly (NYL) !

    O opened May 22 at $54.99 and closed Friday at $44.84. It paid a $0.1815 dividend Jun 27. NLY opened May 22 at $14.66 and closed Friday at $11.82. It paid a $0.40 dividend Jun 27.

    On a real total return basis, O lost 18.1% and NLY lost 16.6% during this recent Meltdown since the May 22 open.

    Tell me you told me so on O ?

    Time to get the facts straight. REITs (as a group) suffered a Meltdown since May 22. It happened ... even to the SWANS.


    Disclosure: I do not own NLY or any mREIT. I've owned O since $18.
    Jul 15 01:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Intelligent Perspective On Rising Rates And REITs [View article]
    Brad,

    That's really not the point. I've been investing in both MLPs and REITS for the past 10 years, and stocks and options for over 40 years. The point is there are many options. And yes, Reality Income (http://bit.ly/vlZACA) is one of my favorites.

    However, over the past 10 years on a total return basis Magellan (http://bit.ly/pI3oIF) is has outperformed O by a factor of 3. EPD has also outperformed O as well, just not by as much. And in the recent REIT selloff, it's not even close. To be honest, I don't know why REITs were impacted so severely by the Fed talk of tapering when many other industries including MLPs will be impacted by the eventual increase in rates (the point).

    If your goal is growing both total return and growing dividends, then REITs should be part of your portfolio... but just a part. And when it comes to REITs, I actually enjoy your articles.

    So don't get too defensive. And if you ever figure out why REITs got spanked harder than just about everyone else since the tappering talk, let us know. It certainly should have adjusted everyones view of REIT volatility.
    Jul 10 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Intelligent Perspective On Rising Rates And REITs [View article]
    A few months I made a comment on MLPs and you claimed they were not comparable to REITs .... REITs had been around for 50 years and are less volatile.

    Take a look at a 2 month chart of Reality Income (O) vs Magellan (MMP) or Enterprise (EPD). Leaders vs leaders, and increasing interest rates effect both.

    So why is O down 18% while the MLPs are both up 3%?

    And it's not just about MLPs. There are other options for investors as interest rates rise. Why are REITs the best answer ... and why has the market been "wrong"?
    Jul 9 07:11 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • O Is A Buy, Not A Bargain [View article]
    So, Reality Income was not part of Valuentum's Dividend Growth Portfolio when it was selling for $18, $25, $30, or $35? It's been part Morningstar's DividendInvestor Portfolio for the past 5 years.

    Where have you been?

    I agree with Brad... and Josh Peters.
    Jun 14 05:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Way To Sleep Well At Night, Carpe Diem [View article]
    Brad,

    Glad to see you finally bought a REIT, in this case O per your disclosure.

    To me, buying what you believe in a write about it much more important than not having skin in the game to claim no bias or independence. Now or Later you had invest in REITs.
    Jun 10 06:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank Uncle Ben For Serendipity In REIT-Dom [View article]
    REITs and Utilities sold off significantly more than the market over the past several weeks. And as demonstrated by your chart on Reality Income (O), the high quality REITs were not exempt ... O is down 17.4% since May 21 ... the market is down 2.2%.

    The real issue going forward is the expected move in interest rates, how far, how fast, vs what the market expects. It appears the "correction" in REITs and Utilities was due to the Fed minutes, and Treasury interest rates moving higher (the Market may not wait for the Fed).

    I'm not sure if this is a window of opportunity, interest rate trap, or if the Hedge Funds and Machines played their trading game on a sector ripe for a reversal.

    What are your assumptions regarding the next 3-5 years for interest rates, and their impact on REITs?
    Jun 3 06:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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