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Dogpound

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  • Q1 GDP revised down to -0.7% [View news story]
    More importantly what do we do next? We have had recovery although it took a long time maybe understandable considering the type of trigger we had in 2008/9.

    Unprecedented monetary easing and ZIRP policy, we now seem to be treading water and rates are still zero. If we have a recession or another shock to the system what are the tools we have in our arsenal?

    As many of us warned over the past years they waited too long to normalize, no willingness to endure some short term pain.

    No bullets in the gun...
    May 29, 2015. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some traders take profits in oil [View news story]
    The price of oil is off 35% since November, its found a range between $45 and $57, there are almost 1000 rigs less working today than one year ago, down +/-48%.

    There has definitely been a supply response in the North America, less investment/drilling, wells shut-in or not repaired/fracked due to poor economics. Production growth has stopped, potentially you might be seeing production decreases in the US in the coming months. Mission accomplished...

    Some OPEC members are calling for a production cut...being massively short here doesn't make much sense, just like being long here makes very little sense.

    It has found a range where its now being moved only by the dollar, everyone knows we are still building inventory, trading that news is irrelevant.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil inventory builds more than expected [View news story]
    The recent weakening of the dollar has mitigated some of the downside for now. No news on storage or demand is going to move oil in any meaningful way in the short term...its about the dollar now. We are at a price point where rigs are being parked and that was the intention, now its a waiting game on dollar strength and oil production response.
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil inventory builds more than expected [View news story]
    Everyone knew this was going to happen a few months ago, in November this contract was over $80/bbl - its off 40%
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netanyahu declares victory in Israel [View news story]
    Sweet...take that Obama
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply Accelerating - Saudi Arabia Delivering On Its Promise? [View article]
    We do have massive reserves the problem with our reserves is incremental production is many years away. Canada could be a high producer in 10 to 15 years if we have a pipeline in place by 2017/18. If you need 10 to 15 million barrels of oil to replace the declines and additional demand over the next 3 to 4 years its not coming from Canada or the Bakken in North Dakota. That type of production is only going to be found by exploiting offshore fields around the world - that is not being done at $45/bbl, you need a price of $70 to $80 to find the oil we will need in the next 3 to 4 years.

    My rigs operate in NE Alberta, very familiar with our challenges up here.


    Jan 27, 2015. 11:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply Accelerating - Saudi Arabia Delivering On Its Promise? [View article]
    Canadian Imports to the USA
    2008 - 2.5 million BPD
    2010 - 2.6 million BPD
    2012 - 2.9 million BPD
    2014 - 3.3 million BPD
    2015 - Estimated at 3.5 million BPD
    No Increase in imports from Canada?????

    Tar Like?
    WCS (Western Canadian Select) is 20.5 API, our heavy blended with light sweet and condensate, similar to your California Heavy, Venezuelas and the Mexican Maya crudes.

    Yes Canadian crudes are refined in the USA into Diesel and Gasoline - so are American Crudes as well as the Saudi and other crudes you import - why do you think its the Canadian crudes that are exported by your refineries - I suppose the Canadian products are in the tanks with the large Canadian flags or pictures of our igloos?
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply Accelerating - Saudi Arabia Delivering On Its Promise? [View article]
    Estimates vary on current consumption of anywhere between 90.5 to 91.5 MBOPD; IEA estimates 2015 consumption at 92.40 MBOPD.

    Current production is estimated at 92.20 MBOPD (Opec 36.0 & Non-Opec of 56.20 MBOPD)

    Mature field decline rates are anywhere between 6 to 10% per year; Decline rates on tighter shale oil plays in NA are approximately 30% in the first 3 months, then dropping to 15% over a year.

    Probably need to find/open up 8 to 9 MBOPD to replace declines and ensure production is flat. OPEC is rumored to have 2.0 MBOPD spare capacity.

    What people fail to realize is that the oil needed to replace declines and aid in growth demand won't come from tight plays in NA, that oil needs to be found deep offshore in prolific reservoirs that can't be exploited and drilled at $50 to $60 oil.

    This decline in oil and the subsequent decline in investment will lead to the next Oil shock in 18 months. By the time the flush production comes off all the wells drilled in 2014 by late 2015 and demand recovers slightly from low prices, the seed is sown for the next run over $100/barrel.

    For the most important non-renewable commodity in the world the supply imbalance is not huge, I can't believe all the doom and gloom. The Saudis have decided to let investment and normal depletion economics dictate the conversation instead of cutting production themselves as they have done for over 20 years.

    Soon the US media will realize they are not sitting on game changing reserves, just ask any geologist or engineer working these fields in NA and they will concur. The amount of investment required to keep production flat in North Dakota will shock most pundits.
    Jan 26, 2015. 04:31 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kitimat votes no to Northern Gateway pipeline [View news story]
    Then stop supporting puppet regimes whose people are trying to undermine your very way of life and help support the national interests of your closest neighbor and ally.

    Stop the grandstanding and political pandering to special interest groups who think the world is going 100% renewables.

    We in Canada do not wish to do business with the Chinese we are being forced to, in another 10 years perhaps our interests are more aligned with them - wouldn't be the first US mistake in foreign relations would it.

    Pipelines are safe. You have millions of mile of them.
    Apr 15, 2014. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cnooc wins exclusive rights to lands for LNG export project in B.C. [View news story]
    Harper warned Obama last year. Keystone is a moot point now. If the USA ever wants our Heavy Oil they will have to buy it from the Chinese. Obama thinks he is pandering for votes with the greenies, when in fact he is alienating his closest ally and compromising Canada's national security interests.

    The Chinese are everywhere here in Calgary, their fingers in many sectors of the industry, 10 years ago we were scared of them now they are our friends. Now I'm scared of the crazies in the USA I watched on CNN thinking we are going to power the world on renewables and reduce fossil fuels and nuclear. Wow just wow - can anyone get the microphone in the USA?
    Nov 13, 2013. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something doesn't add up at Lululemon (LULU -2.1%), according to analysts. Though the retail chain thinks it can double its presence in the U.S. and launch successfully internationally, doubters predict the company's products have a price point that is too high to allow the projected growth to occur smoothly. The big LULU question: Just how big is the market for $60 tank tops and $90 stretchy pants? [View news story]
    I hope that market is massive.
    Jun 20, 2013. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's widely known that the U.S. State Department must approve the Keystone pipeline but an OK also is required from the Fish & Wildfire Service, which this month said the proposed route may endanger the American burying beetle. TransCanada (TRP) will have to trap and relocate the one-inch beetles, using frozen rats that have thawed a bit for maximum pungency. CEO Russ Girling says the company will do whatever it takes. [View news story]
    The politics of coddling environmentalists to make themselves feel good is opening the door to the Chinese. The Chinese influence here in Alberta would impress you. We are a sovereign nation despite what some people think, we have so much in common with our good neighbors to the south except now they have no concern over our interests. That is what has changed since 2008.

    The Chinese want our oil and resources, if you don't want it they will take it. Canadians are finally realizing that we can no longer depend on the USA to promote our interests.

    There is no reason that pipeline is not in the ground already. Its also jobs in the USA, meh who even needs those.
    May 31, 2013. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's widely known that the U.S. State Department must approve the Keystone pipeline but an OK also is required from the Fish & Wildfire Service, which this month said the proposed route may endanger the American burying beetle. TransCanada (TRP) will have to trap and relocate the one-inch beetles, using frozen rats that have thawed a bit for maximum pungency. CEO Russ Girling says the company will do whatever it takes. [View news story]
    Lol, meanwhile you americans do not care that you are importing oil from countries where girls are abused and oil is stored in earthen pits, where corruption gets things done and not due process. Wonder how those beetles survived the other 1.5 million miles of pipelines buried in the states.

    And you print this stuff?
    May 31, 2013. 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The defensive utility sector (XLU -1%) isn’t looking very safe at the moment, as the break below the 50-day moving average suggests further weakness in the days ahead. Technician Ralph Acampora sees the break as a short-term sell for the Dow Jones Utility index but also a longer-term positive for the broader market as investors rotate out of defensive sectors and into more economically sensitive stocks. [View news story]
    Good idea cause with the recent soft econ data in the US and China it would be a great time to do that.
    May 23, 2013. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In a show of hands, 29 Cypriot lawmakers vote for the controversial EU bailout, 27 vote against. The deal is thus approved. (CyprusMail, AP[View news story]
    Wow...don't even need a 60% super majority to destroy your nation?
    Apr 30, 2013. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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