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Dogpound

Dogpound
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  • Mexican cement maker Cemex (CX +3.6%) trades sharply higher despite posting big Q1 misses in earnings, sales and EBITDA. Citigroup suspects a negative investor reaction was softened by optimism for improvement in H2, and Sterne Agee thinks significant weather issues in Q1 and weakness in the stock over the past few weeks have averted any potential selloff today. [View news story]
    That's a sign of a top...the bad Mexican weather indicator.
    Apr 26, 2013. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus will reportedly sell €400M of "excess" gold reserves according to a draft assessment of the country's financing needs reviewed by Reuters. Between now and 2016, the country needs €23B. Cyprus' contribution (around €13B) will be derived from a combination of higher taxes, the Laiki bank wind down, the equity "swap" (sarcasm) with depositors, and the aforementioned sale of the country's gold holdings.  [View news story]
    When your banks have failed, anarchy in the streets and massive unemployment - can you have "excess" gold?
    Apr 10, 2013. 03:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The market appears too sanguine in its view that a solution will inevitably be found," writes Morgan Stanley of Cyprus. Even if the government, Troika, and Kremlin (Kremlin?) somehow reach agreement, the faith between bank depositors and policymakers will have been breached. "There are significant problems behind the curtain." [View news story]
    I guess no better time to buy those beaten up stocks like HPQ, upgraded by MS only hours ago.
    Mar 18, 2013. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last week's losses in high-yield were accompanied by sizable outflows from high-yield ETFs, with HYG losing $461M in assets and JNK $348M. Investors also pulled money from another hot sector, emerging markets bonds (EMB). All three are now posting losses YTD. [View news story]
    So when people buy HYG or JNK (Bond ETF's) the ETF company doesn't purchase actual bonds somewhere? Is that what you are suggesting. I guess the ETF company just pays the interest to the holder from good will or a suspense account.

    Are you one of those that thinks when 1000 shares of AAPL are bought that $44,500.00 of money just came off the sidelines? I am of the opinion that when someone buys 1000 shares of AAPL, someone just sold 1000 shares of AAPL, net result someone has gain or loss, no matter is created and someone has $44,500 off the sidelines and someone else now has $44,500 on the sidelines.
    Feb 5, 2013. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last week's losses in high-yield were accompanied by sizable outflows from high-yield ETFs, with HYG losing $461M in assets and JNK $348M. Investors also pulled money from another hot sector, emerging markets bonds (EMB). All three are now posting losses YTD. [View news story]
    How do you pull money from markets? Is no one buying the stuff they are selling?
    Feb 4, 2013. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana (ECA +1%) may be a takeover target after the departure of its CEO, Bloomberg speculates, after a bet on natural gas wiped out more than a third of the Canadian explorer’s value. Even as gas prices remain depressed, ECA’s gas-rich formations in Canada and the U.S. may appeal to companies looking to export the fuel to Asia. [View news story]
    Yes they are off limits to the Chinese and the Chinese are our friends.

    The USA being unfriendly to Canadian corporations and interests will surely not be allowed to bid.

    The USA can continue to deal with its good Allies like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iraq.

    The pipelines will head West, the amount of Chinese investment in the oilsands and shale gas plays in the last 3 years will ensure it.

    Your political grandstanding and love of solar, ethanol and wind subsidies and pandering to the green crowd will ensure further destruction of US influence in the world.
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana (ECA +1%) may be a takeover target after the departure of its CEO, Bloomberg speculates, after a bet on natural gas wiped out more than a third of the Canadian explorer’s value. Even as gas prices remain depressed, ECA’s gas-rich formations in Canada and the U.S. may appeal to companies looking to export the fuel to Asia. [View news story]
    Encana & Suncor will be off limits to foreign takeovers and no other Canadian company could do the deal.
    Speculate elsewhere.
    Jan 29, 2013. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The aussie and the loonie are about to enter the big leagues with the IMF considering breaking the two currencies out from the "other" category in its Cofer data. Less than 2% before the financial crisis, the reserves in the "other" is now over 5%, with much of that apparently flowing into those two units. This happening amidst rising official calls for a weaker aussie is - in a word - interesting. A chart of FXA and FXC vs. the dollar index since January 2009. [View news story]
    Just until it gets high enough to kill what little manufacturing we still have in Eastern Canada and our Housing crash enters full swing in spring of 2013.
    Nov 20, 2012. 03:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks take a decided turn down as Bernanke speaks and seems to rule out any more stimulus for the moment. Seriously? The chairman again promised QE will continue even after the economy recovers and the market wants more? DJIA -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.6%.  [View news story]
    You Americans are turning socialist. Big government, social programs for everyone, take some advice, it doesn't work very well. Once on the titty its impossible to get off without unparalleled social unrest...see Spain/Greece.
    Nov 20, 2012. 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A high-profile group of nine Democratic and nine Republican senators urges Pres. Obama to quickly issue a permit for the northern leg of the Keystone pipeline (TRP +1.8%), citing the need to create jobs and to reduce oil imports from the Middle East. The senators' letter comes just ahead of a protest against the pipeline planned for the White House on Sunday. [View news story]
    Forget it...we are sending it West to China. Why deal with a socialist state when you can deal with a capitalist one.
    Nov 16, 2012. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    Correction is just starting and will hit frothiest areas first, the following properties are in Calgary - compare these prices to comparable homes in your area.

    Link to an apartment in Calgary, downtown. 2600 square feet for 1.44 million CDN. $552/square foot

    http://bit.ly/RFWYO9

    4 Plex built in 1912 - 1.45 Million CDN (probably renting for +/- $800/unit/month after property tax) - bad area of the city
    http://bit.ly/T4mKdm

    2800 square foot two story in outlier neighborhood, 1.1 million CDN
    http://bit.ly/RFWWG8

    1.4 million Two story in burbs
    http://bit.ly/T4mMSA
    Nov 7, 2012. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    If you look at our housing price charts, prices were correcting quickly from late 2008 to early 2009. The Bank of Canada had to follow the US bank rate reductions or our dollar would have went through the roof. Lower interest rates created a frenzy of buying that went unabated until this spring. Vancouver and Toronto are now showing signs of stress, sales of existing homes are substantially lower yoy, prices are starting to soften as well.
    Nov 7, 2012. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    Ahem, have you looked at a chart of Canadian house prices from 2003 to present.

    Here is a great Chronology of the CMHC ponzi scheme:

    1954-1990- Somewhere along this time, 10% became minimum down payment.
    1990- 5% was introduced as a trial run, then officially accepted in 1999.
    2001 – Genworth (GE Capital) enters the Canadian mortgage insurance market
    2001 – CIBC offered below-prime mortgages.
    Pre-2003 – CMHC: 5% down with price limit depending on area, 25 yr amortizations, no price limit if 10% or more down
    Sep 2003 – CMHC: 5% down, 25 yr amortizations, removed all price ceiling limitations. Now any mortgage would be insured regardless of the cost.
    Mar 2004 – CMHC: Flex-Down product allows 5% down to be borrowed and 1.5% closing costs to be borrowed (essentially zero down, but 95% insured)
    Mar 2006 – AIG enters the Canadian mortgage insurance market
    Mar 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 30 yr amortizations (Genworth announces 35 yr amortizations)
    Jun 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 35 yr amortizations, interest only payments allowed for 10 years
    Nov 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 40 yr amortizations, interest only payments allowed for 10 years
    Oct 2008 – CMHC: 5% down, 35 yr amortizations, investors need 5% down.
    April 2010- CMHC did some minor tightening of their guidelines, investors need 20% down.
    March 2011- CMHC only allows 30 yr amortizations, restrictions on pulling equity out
    2012 - CMHC only allows 25 yr amortizations, insured mortgages limited to $1 million, home equity refinance drops from 85% to 80%.

    The amount of loosening that occured starting 2003 to 2006 was crazy. Any wonder home prices doubled over that period?

    Notice how government has been tightening since 2008 - the credit crisis delayed our crash, the reduction of interest has postponed the inevitable for a few years.
    Nov 6, 2012. 02:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
    I hear lots of my fellow Canucks say it is different here, "we don't have sub-prime mortgages" - that's a laugh, all our mortgages are "sub-prime" - in the USA you can mortgage for 30 years and deduct interest from taxable income. In Canada the long dated mortgages are 5 year terms - when interest rates begin to rise all of our mortgages will "re-set" at higher rates. The fall could be quicker than the USA.

    Up until Oct 31, 2012 our banks were still able to do "cash-back" mortgages.

    Carney and Flaherty are very scared, our banks will be fairly insulated from the carnage, our sovereign debt rating not so much.
    Nov 6, 2012. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the late-day Fed leak: Officials have become impatient with sluggish growth and high unemployment, reports Jon Hilsenrath. MBS purchases, a pledge to keep rates low for longer, or even a move to push down nearly microscopic short rates even lower are among the choices available to the FOMC. Action could come at the July 31 meeting.  [View news story]
    Fed does not weigh in unless they have cover. Unemployment steady, market at 1330, 4 months to election, inflation at target level.....good luck.
    Jul 24, 2012. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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