Seeking Alpha

Dogpound

Dogpound
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Dogpound's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Aiming to increase its rig count to ensure continued spare production capacity, Saudi Arabia has met with oil service companies, including Halliburton (HAL). "It's definitely not for expanding capacity," says an analyst, arguing the increased investment is necessary just to maintain production levels.  [View news story]
    Whats the panic - no oil?

    Anyone wonder why the Saudis are spending money like crazy on an offshore heavy oil field called manifa to produce a paltry 900K BPD?

    Why does the UAE have to increase production to help offset the loss of 1.0 million BPD of Libyan production? Where is this 3.0 million BPD of spare production?

    They wouldn't be overstating their reserves would they?

    Oil should be $300/barrel until they allow 3rd party reservoir auditors to tear apart their books.
    Mar 29 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroBakken Energy: Some Insider Buying Moves More Noteworthy Than Others [View article]
    Devon Shire, I do not pay for the subscription to canadianinsider.com so it only shows the last 10 transactions. The buying at $29.00-27.50 was not at all significant, same as the purchases I have seen between $19.00-$22.00, point I was making is that each time this stock has taken the hit to new lower levels there has always been some insider buying.

    Since 2009 PBN has hit new lower lows every 3 to 4 months, when recovering it made lower highs. The chart is terrible.

    There definately has been some better size purchases lately (65000 shares Craig Lothian on March 15th - probably +/- $17.50 ish). These guys might also be averaging down so who really knows.

    This stock should be trading higher than it is but has me puzzled since being stopped out twice so far when I thought it could go no lower. Every analyst I see on BNN that comments on it usually mentions failure to execute or lost faith in management but they also say it presents good value at current levels, and then it keeps dropping to new lows.

    Crescent Point is the darling of the analysts/brokerage houses but seems to highly priced for my liking. PBN should get some respect eventually as they have excellent assets and are highly levered to higher oil prices. It's either a fantastic at these levels or continues to be a value trap.

    Like I said I am going to try and pick some up in the mid seventeen's if the opportunity presents itself again. Knowing my luck it will trade steadily towards 24 to 25 with no breakdown.

    Good Luck
    Mar 23 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroBakken Energy: Some Insider Buying Moves More Noteworthy Than Others [View article]
    Insiders have been buying since 29/share, each new leg down has more and more insider buying, I guess sometimes even the insiders are wrong.

    They are not a favorite of the analysts due to consistently over promising and under delivering.

    Production is down 9% year over year after spending 800 million.

    I really like this company but after being stopped out at 2 different levels $22 then $19.50 I am very concerned about this co and its chart.

    Definately a well positioned company but its stock is broken.

    I am sure the next step is a take over to realize potential, at over 1.0 billion in debt or $5.00 per share the fair value on the common is likely around $24 to 25/share with oil over $100. I am waiting for it to re-test $17.50 and hold before I enter the trade again.
    Mar 23 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Crude Is Going to $80/Barrel [View article]
    1. Yes, in the USA, and your move away from oil is in high gear I see, with energy independence from fossil fuels right around the corner - its an emerging economies thing you know
    2. Granted
    3. Historically?? Tell me another time in history where 2, maybe 3 dictatorships in the mid east may fall in a period of 30 days. The saudis and now the omanis are handing out free cash to their citizens to appease them - do you really think they are paying for that - try the worlds oil importers.
    4. Geopolitics is only going to become more prevalent over the next ten to twenty years not less so.
    5. What percent of the fuels are interchangeable - yah almost zero...Nat gas in North America is landlocked and is affected by supply and demand, too much of it and not enough uses. So why are you worried about the ratio?
    6. You really think the US dollar is in better shape than it was 3 years ago? Deficits, debt, QE1/2 maybe 3?
    7. Granted but almost irrelevant

    Low interest rates today versus 2008 are going to act as support for higher oil prices. If the US continues to devalue its currency and print dollars the Oil price will continue to work higher. Should oil exporting countries deserve less money for their crude because the USA is intentionally devaluing its currency?

    In Canada we made more money off our production when Oil was $70.00/bbl and our dollar was pegged at 0.70 to the US greenback ($100.00 CAD/bbl) - now at $95.00 USD/bbl we receive $93.00 CAD/bbl.
    Feb 28 09:07 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lowe's (LOW) is up 1.3% after announcing it's cutting 1,700 middle-management jobs. The company is however adding 8,000 to 10,000 weekend sales jobs to address its busy time. As of last January, Lowe's had about 239K employees to Home Depot's (HD) 317K.  [View news story]
    In an effort to stimulate the economy the congress introduced a bill today legislating the elimination of monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday and friday.
    Jan 26 12:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Research In Motion: Why It's a 'Buy' [View article]
    There is room for more than 1 or 2 of these devices in the market place.

    Apple and RIM both have different target markets. RIM has the advantage of a captive corporate audience - Corporations are not buying the I-Pad for certain reasons - perhaps the Apple crowd can provide some examples where corps are changing over to I-Phones and I-Pads.

    I am quite surprised with the specs of the playbook, they have done their homework.

    RIM will never trade at an Apple premium, its a Canadian company and does not have the consumer hype. Apples products are very good but they are gimmicky - just what the retail consumer wants.

    RIM will trade higher and like the author suggests there is some money to be made here. I would not be shorting Apple either.
    Sep 30 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -16K to 453K vs. 460K consensus. Continuing claims -83K to 4,457,000.  [View news story]
    Yes after 99 weeks of unemployment they all got jobs.
    Sep 30 08:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM Takes a Page From Apple in the Tablet Fight [View article]
    Americans are infatuated with the retail space and fancy apps that help you do your shopping and find restaurants and food reviews.

    RIM has always been a corporate play. All those flush S&P companies are certainly in a better financial position than the average retail consumer.

    The delay in release is really being played up by the analysts - even most of them know that a targeted corporate product does little if released for the holiday season.

    They have done their homework, if you are an unbiased investor and compare the two products you will see that the playbook will have a special niche in the corporate world among the millions and millions of corporate companies and loyal blackberry users worldwide.

    Apple has yet to prove they can crack the corporate market and won't anytime soon with its suite of products.

    Perhaps when they become as common as gatorade bottles on the sidelines at NFL games the US investors will take notice - remember its encrypted and secure.

    Buying with both fists. Buy them when they hate them.

    Let the thumbs down posts begin.
    Sep 28 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM Tops Estimates, Ups Guidance [View article]
    Canadian company for starters.

    Analysts are drugged by the Apple phenomenon.

    Apps - do you really want to get your employees an I-phone - games and other useless apps to keep your employees from working.

    RIM has a niche - Apple and Android have the other niche. There is room for RIM, its secured network is a vital reason for its success worldwide - on the corporate side people forget that Apple and Android will have a difficult time making in-roads outside of the retail market.

    RIM will not get a multiple like Apple but at its current level it is an attractive purchase.

    I think it would be a mistake of RIM to chase the other two market, keep doing what they have been doing and people will soon find another company that is going to get "killed" by apple.
    Sep 17 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Will Sink to $20-$40 Per Barrel [View article]
    Mr. Galt - You don't find it at all strange that Saudia Arabia has produced between 6 to 9 million barrels per day for 30 years and their reserves have gone up? Did you know that your production quota in OPEC is base on your percentage of total reserves - doesn't give you much incentive to reduce reserves as you produce oil does it?

    Ghawar in Saudi is a great example of the decline of easy oil - check it out if you like.

    Declines on mature fields are between 5 to 6% a year - just to replace declines we must find approximately 5 million barrels per day per year. A newly drilled well at the start of its curve declines at between 20 to 30 percent in the first year (flush production) - that 5 million barrels per day you just found is only 3.75 million barrels after one year and then may assume a 5 to 10% decline profile.

    It is a severe treadmill we are on. The easy oil is all gone. Now its deepwater and oilsands, rogue regimes and nationalized oil companies, and some jurisdictions are getting tougher to drill in for some reason (GOM, soon to be Iraq when the US leaves)

    Do you think all the production increases you mention would have occurred over the last 3 years at 30 to 50 per barrel?

    Best cure for a low oil price is a low oil price.

    Short if you like but $70.00/bbl is cheap oil, enjoy it while its here.

    Bottled water is trading at $800.00 per barrel - there is a good short.
    Sep 15 03:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Will Sink to $20-$40 Per Barrel [View article]
    Oil to Natural Gas ratio - you lose all credibility when you bring up that relationship because its one used for accounting purposes - period. Link it to another replacement fuel (coal) if you like. There is no meaningful amount of interchangeability between the two fuels.

    Oil is a global market - Natural Gas is constrained to the North American market - can be brought in but currently not exported.

    We have gone through a severe credit crisis and sub-optimal growth over the past 2 to 3 years and oil consumption in the USA has dropped a mere 2% - that should raise alarm bells.

    The single most important piece of the world economy is oil. Without cheap energy there is approximately 2 to 3 billion people too many in the world and exporting goods would be next to impossible.

    Oil at $70.00 is inexpensive. Inflation adjusted oil was more expensive in the late 1970's.

    All new oil that will be required to cover depletion an future demand increases from the hard to find/produce category - deep water and oil sands. Check out deep drillship rates - 500K per day - rig only. Full cycle E&P costs in the oilsands do not make sense at $70.00 USD/bbl.

    Yes oil can go lower but it will not stay there for long - when the world economy recovers you will wish you had that barrel of oil versus that $70.00 USD.
    Sep 15 09:12 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of Canada Raises to 1% – An Overview [View article]
    He understands what is happening with the cheap money in our economy.

    Carney would be a welcome relief in the USA right now as would our current finance minister Jim Flaherty.

    The USA is keeping rates to low. Try raising the overnight rate from 0.25 to 0.75 and you will spark consumption. Stop trying to increase inflation by reducing the cost of money.

    The culture in the USA is all about instant gratification - in most other countries around the world Germany, Canada, Australia etc. a poor Federal balance sheet is a big concern to citizens thus austerity, reduced spending and balancing budgets.

    Bankers and special interest groups run the USA and are bent on breaking your future generations to pad their own pockets.

    I wish to leave my province and country in better shape for my children - that means taking the medicine the current generation desperately needs, that means lower growth and less spending.
    Sep 9 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on Oil Inventory, Natural Gas and Coal [View article]
    I hope you do an article like this once a month. Very good compilation and some very interesting points.

    Distillates - I wonder if the 2nd Quarter slowdown is masked in the distillate chart - if so I am hoping the uptick confirms the ISM report - early to guess I know.

    I bought into Western Coal (WTN - TSX) last week and it really took a pop in the last few days up almost 17% in just over a week. I was thinking of closing out the position as I do not play the coals that often so the fundamentals are very sketchy to me - good information in your article - I will research further before I get out of the position.

    Thank you for a great read.
    Sep 2 04:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The emerging consensus: The U.S. economy is already so bad that it reduces the likelihood of a double-dip - and increases the chances of a stock market jump off levels that have priced in another decline.  [View news story]
    Buy good companies. Buy companies with a good history of dividend increases. At these levels there are many companies that are cheap relative to any metric you wish to measure them. Don't buy all at once.

    Buy on the down days. Buy good companies that have guided down or been downgraded. Buy them when they hate them.

    Trying to time a volatile market like this is futile.

    Buy with the understanding that the stocks you are buying are likely going to go lower before they go higher and understand that over the next 2 years there will be times where you are underwater and sitting on a gain.

    I missed a good portion of the 2009 rally listening to all the pessimists on this site.

    Good luck
    Sep 2 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Stop Trading! Prepare for Mass Panic (8/26/10) [View article]
    Very true - I do not care for the guy because I find his style very annoying. He does put his butt on the line every night and has such a following of "home gamers" that he knows he has tremendous responsibility.
    Aug 27 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
141 Comments
488 Likes