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  • The other oil disaster: Oil from an Enbridge (ENB +1.7%) pipeline approaches Lake Michigan, which would cause a "tragedy of historic proportions" and attract the attention of regulators who will find a history of pipeline problems, including leaks, an explosion and dozens of safety violations.  [View news story]
    Cause they might get an EPA commendation for killing all the asian carp.
    Jul 30, 2010. 03:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020 [View article]
    You're right - obviously no one remembers.

    I feel we are destined for a continual cycle of future oil shocks that crush small recoveries until we do get it.
    Jul 30, 2010. 02:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020 [View article]
    You are correct in most respects except that what everyone likes to forget is that Oil is the single most important element to the world economy. We are mired in a global slowdown and we only have about 5 to 8 percent excess productive capacity. We need to find 5 to 8 million barrels per day per year to maintain equilibrium due to declines and increased demand.

    The human race has proven it cannot change unless placed under extreme duress, $150 per bbl didn't do it the last time we are still more dependent on oil than ever.

    If you looked at the supply balance of many other commodities they are not even close to that of oils.

    It is such a vital component of world economies that it does have severe consequences when it is allowed to run on speculation like copper and iron ore.
    Jul 30, 2010. 01:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020 [View article]
    Oil in the early eighties was cheaper than it is today. Inflation adjusted it is relatively cheap right now.

    Corn ethanol - more energy to produce it than it produces - without subsidies it wouldn't exist.

    Right now the world consumes 87 million barrels per day, with average declines that production will be approximately 45 to 50 million barrels per day in 2020 at a time when world demand will be at approximately 100 million barrels per day. Assuming we really start to decrease demand to flat over the next 10 years you will need to find over 40 million barrels per day of "new" production.

    The low hanging fruit is gone, the new oil is in 5000 feet of water and in the oilsands where current finding and development costs of greenfield projects require oil prices over $80 per barrel. Add in moratoriums on drilling in certain areas and increased costs due to regulation and liabilities do you think those costs are going down? More and more of the worlds new oil is in tough places to work (geo political problems/regimes).

    Why are huge companies like Exxon having poor liquids growth profiles and now taking positions in natural gas plays in North America?

    How much oil have you personally tried to find in your days?

    The USA is printing money at a feverish pace and you think eventually inflation is not going to be a concern?

    $300 oil in 10 years would be wonderful, hope it doesn't run further than that.
    Jul 30, 2010. 11:53 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July ISM New York Business Index: 58.4 vs. 69.3 in June.  [View news story]
    2.4% after stimulus wears off may be considered OK; however 2.4% GDP in Q2 with tremendous cheap money and stimulus programs is very disappointing. There are not many bullets left. It appears the majority of growth may have come from the consumer burning through their savings which is frightening.
    Jul 30, 2010. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More than 50 months since the peak of residential building in 2006, the housing industry is building only about 30% of the homes it was building during the boom - 30 points worse than a similar stage of the recovery after the S&L crisis and the 1970s oil crisis. In fact, housing activity is at its lowest level since WW II.  [View news story]
    However when shown in square footage terms today's number is still higher than WWII

    I wonder.
    Jul 20, 2010. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining the Chances of a Market Crash Before the Mid-Term Elections [View article]
    "We know intervention is a reality, and we know these key technical levels are in danger of being breached. Put those facts in an election context which is looming as a disaster for the party in power and you get a scenario which should give overly enthused Bears pause."

    I think the first step in the destruction of a society is the apathetic attitude towards fraud and corruption. Propping up the market with debt or tax payer money without publicly declaring so specifically is just that.

    I hope for the USA's sake and the entire free world for that matter that you are a conspiracy theorist and trying to kick-start dialogue.

    If not and you are serious it might be time to start mobilizing a militia instead of writing blogs like this one.
    Jul 19, 2010. 02:45 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +78 bcf vs. consensus of +76 bcf. Futures move up +4.1% to $4.485.  [View news story]
    Reuters and Bloomberg expectations were at 78 and 81 respectively with Bentek up at 88 BCF

    For gas to rise over 6% on this build is questionable. Severe heat wave versus same week last year and the build is only down 10 BCF from 88 last year - in my mind that is pretty bearish. Markets make very little sense these days.
    Jul 15, 2010. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Budget Picture Continues to Improve [View article]
    Is 36967 the amount of your followers or the population of Calafia Beach?
    Jul 13, 2010. 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amedisys (AMED) is plummeting on heavy volume after warning its business weakened in Q2 and that its profits will fall short of analysts' forecasts. The company will ratchet down its growth plans as a result. Shares -23.4%. (see also)  [View news story]
    Wow - why would anyone want to own stocks when they see stuff like that happen. Our business has weakened and down 23.4%.

    More and more fixed income is looking better and better.
    Jul 13, 2010. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A gloomy outlook from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, as its Small Business Optimism Index drops 3.2 points to 89 after posting modest gains for several months. "The U.S. economy faces hurricane force headwinds, and the government is at the center of the storm," NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg says. The index typically bounces back quickly following a recession, but not this time.  [View news story]
    The cold environment in Canada builds character. Go ahead and crowd your warm sunny southern coastlines, my nearest neighbor lives one and a half miles away and I hope it stays that way.
    Jul 13, 2010. 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why the S&P 500 Will Hit 1,350 [View article]
    Yes - and all the S&P 500 companies selling into Europe will have to repatriate all those Euros into 16% less USD than Q1.

    Should be interesting earnings season.
    Jul 8, 2010. 04:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bank tax, not bigger capital cushion requirements, is the best way to limit future bank bailouts by the government, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota says, a position at odds with that taken by G-20 leaders. Banks that take bigger risks would pay higher levies, he says, and those funds would pay for "inevitable" future bailouts.  [View news story]
    Great idea, create a slush fund as a backstop for terrible business decisions and future bailouts.

    Why not when you fail you don't get bailed out, your creditors and shareholders get wiped out?

    Higher tier 1 capital requirements work, it lowers leverage, it leaves the bank with some skin in the game.

    It has worked very well for our Canadian banks - why are you Americans always looking for a new "neater" idea to make higher risk more acceptable when what you should be doing is regulate your banks to ensure they are scrutinizing borrowers more closely and lend on tighter requirements (higher down-payment requirements etc.)?

    The Canadian banking system has long been called boring - who gives a rats ass.
    Jul 7, 2010. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard Chartered tells clients to prepare for a 30% drop in property prices in China's largest cities. Ken Rogoff foresees a "collapse" in China's property market that will hit the country's banking system.  [View news story]
    The Chinese market can handle a 30% drop in prices. Its going to hurt investors, not banks. The standard lending practice is for a person to put down 25 to 40% on a mortgage. Commercial is a bit less.

    The North American practice of lending money on residential and speculative property purchases with 0 to 5% down is one of the major causes of the financial crisis.
    Jul 7, 2010. 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Really That Scary? [View article]
    I think Inflation has had people chasing return for sometime, even developing complex investments that financial gurus could not even decipher.

    Chasing return has been part of the reason we were put into a financial crisis. Perhaps a 10 year term of deflation would be a good thing.

    Would force people to deal with debt, not extend and pretend.

    Would force governments to balance budgets.

    Would force people to live within their means.

    If you have no cash and lots of debt it will be very painful as it should be.
    Jun 18, 2010. 10:37 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment