huangthomas

All Signs Point to Recovery in China

The stimulus package of $600bill announced last November in China is almost 16% of GDP. It should work for a while. Like our Q3 data, it is an economy on steroid.

Can China Sustain 8% Growth?

It is a national policy to grow economy at least 8% through thin and thick to lift the rural population out of poverty. The national budget always provides funds for 8% growth. Therefore, the answer is definitely YES. When the current world financial crisis is over, China will go back to double digit growth which they have enjoyed for the last decade or two.

CAF: If Money Flows into Mainland China, It's Where You'll Want to Be

Yes, gem is hot right now, so are stocks of large banks and real estate developers. I hope the rest of the Shanghai market will not suffer. I am a little bit surprised that the market kept falling before 60th anniversary of founding of PRC on October 1.

ETFs That Offer Exposure to Shanghai Growth

This is a very confusing article. CAF is a CEF, not an ETF. What do you mean by "Shanghai growth"? SSE represent the listed stocks of the entire China. There are two stock exchanges in China: Shanghai and Shenzhen. What do you mean by Shanghai growth and China growth? Don't delegate too much to Mr Chen. I don't believe you wrote this confusing article.

U.S. vs. China: Has Trade War Begun?

Jeff: Don't fall into the trap. There are none you can write about!


On Sep 14 11:50 AM Jimbo wrote:

> Ok, Jeff. Now write an article about the glories and superior elements
> of the Chinese health care system.

U.S. vs. China: Has Trade War Begun?

This is an excellent insightful article. Hollowing of the American manufacturing jobs started with Japan and Asian 4 tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore). To deal with the problems of high labor costs, American corporation finds a solution in China. The book "Post-industrial America" was published then and predicted that the manufacturing jobs will leave America. It become true as we all can see now.

China Becoming a 'Middle-Class' Nation

This is one of those "nonsensical yammering" the author referred to. There is no denial that China has made significant progress in economic development over the last 30 years, but the rosy scenario painted by the author is shear "nonsensical yammering". The origin of this post is that someone quoted a statement from the World Bank that residents of Beijing is becoming rich because they only spend 30-40% of income on food. The official Xinhua news agency immediately denied that classification even for Beijing and Shanghai, two of the highest personal income region. Less than a year ago Xinhua reported that China had 100 million rural residents in poverty by World Bank standard, e.i. subsisting on less than $1.25 per day. The criteria are originally set for Africa by World Bank, 1 dollar a day. Adjusted for inflation, it is $1.25 a day.

Average Chinese spend 50-60% of income on food. By Engels coefficient, that is on the verge of poverty. I do admire the ability of this author to slice and dice the information and manufacturing technique from China. But don't allow your dogs or cats to eat it.

Can China Manufacturers Make the Transition from Products to Services?

Talk is cheap. I like to see what has been accomplished. Set up Shanghai to compete with Hong Kong without a trustworthy, reliable judicial system? That is only a pipe dream.

Can China Manufacturers Make the Transition from Products to Services?

but don't tell you that he works two shifts a day and 7 days a week without paid vacation (except national holidays) or sick leave. You can figure out the hourly wages! Sorry I have some difficulty with this computer.

Can China Manufacturers Make the Transition from Products to Services?

Imagine China becomes a service-driven society: you cut my hair, I clip your nail......You wash my cloth, I map your floor... China needs to export manufactured goods to accumulate wealth. The wage is much lower than you think. A migrant worker can tell you he makes $150 a month.

Can China Really Lead the Global Recovery?

Export account for 30% of Chinese GDP and 20% of GDP growth.

Chinese Economy Down; U.S. Home Prices Still Falling Fast

International Energy Agency has indicated that Chinese energy data are unreliable. When two Chinese Congresses were in session in February, Premier suddenly declare the Chinese energy consumption in February increase by 15%, which is correct because year before the snow storm knock down almost all the power lines in the south and their data are always constructed on y.o.y. They know how to manipulate the data, simply to make them look good.

China's Economic Growth Claims Lack Credibility

What a great selective observation! Go out to countryside and farm belt where 20-25 million unemployed migrant workers live. Go to Pearl river and Yangtze river triangles where export industries are located and see how many factories are closed or abandoned.


On Apr 27 09:41 AM DY wrote:

> I am living in Beijing and there is definitely no sign of a recession.
> Disposable spending is up 20% Y/Y in Beijing. I have to wait in line
> for 45 minutes to eat in local restaurants. The Western part of the
> country, where the Congqing, the world's largest city is located,
> is about the same.
>
> Southern part of the country is hit harder. However, I was there
> last weekend and the factory that I visited said that they were back
> to full capacity.
>
> I do not buy the governement figure either but I think this economy
> is stronger than what most people give it credit for.

Van Eck Files for First A-Shares China ETF

The whole thing sound very murky. I don't understand what they are up to. ETF based on derivatives is possible, but based on QFII status is impossible.

U.S., China Increase Trade Deficit: Win-Win Situation

The inexpensive goods we imported from China, such as shoes, clothing...are not consumer discretionary items. In economic hard time, our traffic to Wall Mart has not decreased, as a matter of fact, it probably increased.

China has control over foreign exchange and set the daily exchange rate. The practice is susceptible to exchange rate manipulation, but that does not means it is "highly" manipulated. As a matter of fact, there is no way we can balance our trade with China by exchange rate "reverse manipulation". Remember we do not manufacture those items any more and never encourage your children to dedicate their career to manufacturing those items. Before long, we'll see those goods labeled made in Vietnam, India, Indonesia......

As I see it, the only way to balance our trade is to sell them high technology know-hows, some of which are used in our weapon systems. China has asked for them for a long time. Do we want to sell them "Lenin's ropes?