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cocacolabuffet
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Coke is a full-time investor who employs macro-investing strategies.Her biggest strength is the acute identification of macro trends and leverage that strength on stock investing. The approach she utilizes is top-down and fundamental analysis. Her focus areas are commodities,retailers and real... More
My company:
Uptrend Capital, LLC
My blog:
Passion for life and stocks
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  • A Turning Point For US Coal And Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks?
    Due to the glut of natural gas and environmentalist pressure, the domestic demand for coal has been depressed. US coal producers are looking abroad.

    From Marketwatch

    "The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates 2011 exports surpassed 100 million short tons for the first time since 1992, and some market watchers expect exports to top that this year. ....................................

    Higher sales prices in Asia and Europe have made sending coal to those markets more attractive, while U.S. emissions regulations and competition from cheap natural gas limit domestic demand.

    Fast-growing China and India have been sucking up shipments to fuel an expansion of coal-fired power plants, disrupting traditional supply channels. South Africa -- a traditional exporter to Europe -- has been sending more shipments to Asia, creating a hole in the market that the U.S. has helped fill. "

    The US coal exports could eventually hit a ceiling, as transportation costs will make U.S.-produced coal less competitively priced than coal produced closer to major Asian customers. However, shipping rates that are hovering around historic lows can help US coal exports. Meanwhile, dry bulk shipping that has been abysmal amidst a gigantic glut of ships may get a lift from increased coal transportation across the ocean.

    Watch lists:
    Coal- ACI, ANR, BTU, CNX, PCX
    Dry Bulk Shipping- DRYS, DSX, EGLE, EXM, SB, NM

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in DRYS, ANR, PCX, DSX over the next 72 hours.

    Feb 06 10:09 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • 3 Cases For DANG

    Coined as "Amazon of China", the Chinese B2C company, Dangdang (DANG) that was barely $5 at the start of the year, soared by 70% to as high as $8.50 before it retreated to $7+ toward the end of January. There were many non-DANG factors that contributed to a great run, namely, the revival of Chinese-concept stocks that were beaten up in most of 2011, the return of chasing "growth" as governments print money and European debt crisis was tentatively brushed aside, and last but not least, the euphoria surrounding the historic IPO of social media giant, Facebook. All these buzzes aside, DANG has some merits to itself. These may not merit a 70% run in less than a month but they may merit a much higher valuation in 12 months than what it is now.

    1. Significant Upside of the Ecommerce market in China

    The growth of the ecommerce market is of lightning speed. The ecommerce market in China is expected to reach 2 trillion RMB ($310 billion ) by 2015. A rising tide lifts all boats. Currently DANG's market share is somewhere between 4-9% (depending on the source of data). Take the worst case scenario that Dang does not grow the market share at all from now on . The market share even goes down some to 3%, it gives a sale of $9 billion, about 18 times more than DANG's revenue in 2011.

    DANG stands to benefit and grow together with such a big wave in China's ecommerce even if it performs somewhere between mediocrity and average.

    2. The Peer Effect-Jingdong's IPO

    One of the largest B2C player in China, Jingdong (360buy.com) IPO is expected to be above $ 5 billion. Jingdong's market share of ecommerce is somewhere between 18 to 32% depending on the classification and source. Its recent private equity deals indicated that the company was valued at $10 billion. DANG's current market cap is $579 million. If it doubles, it will still be far below Jingdong.

    There are two possible effects on DANG after Jingdong's IPO: 1. Jingdong's high profile IPO, if successful, is likely to remind investors of the great potential of China's ecommerce market again 2. Jingdong's IPO is likely to take investors away from DANG as Jingdong's market share in Ecommerce far exceeds that of DANG. With only a few Chinese B2C ADR listed in the US exchange and the current low stock price of DANG, I am leaning toward the first possibility.

    3. Product Diversity and Logistic Improvement

    One of the biggest obstacles facing Chinese E-commerce is the lacking in logistic and distribution system. E-commerce players find it hard pressed to guaratee quality and consistency in delivery. Customers are often frustrated with the quality and consistency of such service. B2B giant, Alibaba, the parent company of Taobao and B2C leader, Jingdong are both devoted to massive amount of capital in the improvement of logistic system.

    DANG is focused on expanding product diversity and improving logistic system, e-book, baby, beauty, home décor,etc. With its dominance in book market, it can leverage its knowledge of reading pattern of its customer base and direct customers to products that may be of their interests. Of no lesser importance is a large amount of cash at hand . DANG has $246 million to put into the above implementation.

    Caveat

    The recent rally of Chinese concepts, especially internet related stocks, has put DANG at risk of an immediate pull back (which may have already taken place to a large extent) but it is definitely a stock worth a place in your watch list in 2012.

    Disclosure: I am long DANG.

    Feb 06 7:10 PM | Link | 4 Comments
  • 3 Cases for LVS
    There is only one word that can describe the price movement of stock of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), a casino property developer and operator: H-O-T.  The stock price went up by a whopping 200% in the last 12 months, compared to about 12% of the S&P 500 Index.


    1. Singapore
    The super growth lies with Singapore, a prominent tourism, finance and trade center in Asia that attracts millions of tourists each year.

    LVS's owned Marina Bay Sands (MBS), cranked out an EBITDA of $241.6 million in 3rd quarter, 2010 after opening just 6 months ago, about 4 times the EBITDA of LVS’s base in Las Vegas. This is just the beginning. Hongkong-based investment company, CLSA offered very bullish forecast on the growth of the Singapore gaming industry. The industry is expected to grow to a $6 billion industry in 2011 and $9 billion by 2013. Citigroup analysts offered a less upbeat, expecting a $4.5 billion industry in 2011. Currently LVS carries about 34% of the market share.

    Between the lower and upper range of estimated industry growth, LVS can take in a revenue between $1.53 billion and $2.04 billion with a midpoint of $1.785 billion in year 2011. LVS is expected to soon take the market share up to about 40%, drawing closer to the only competitor in Singapore, Genting. Given this market share, between the lower and upper range of estimated industry growth, LVS can take in a revenue between $1.8 billion and $2.4 billion with a midpoint of $2.1 billion in year 2011. To put these numbers in context, the old base of LVS in Las Vegas has an annualized revenue of $1.19 billion in 2010. Even without any growth, MBS, just by operating the full year should have about $1.4 billion in revenue (the annualized revenue of MBS in 2010).

    2. Macao
    ......................for details, see cocacolabuffet.blogspot.com/


    Disclosure: no positions as of November 15, 2010
    Tags: LVS
    Nov 15 7:34 PM | Link | Comment!
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  • This round of corrections in fertilizers and materials due to fears on rate hikes in China will be a good opportunity to buy
    Jan 20, 2011
  • The market did have a strong rebounce since Wednesday. The market is on its way to test 52 week high. Would be very cautious,lightly long.
    Nov 6, 2009
  • took profit smn at $11 and srs at $10.2. don't wanna risk a rebounce
    Nov 3, 2009
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