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texastrojan

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  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @ Jaret - Can you please re-check the title of this article? How is it you can shower the author in compliments, while fundamentally disagreeing with the content? Non sequitur! You guys constantly pat each other on the back, while simultaneously slamming any outsider who offers a dissenting perspective. Unbelieveable!
    Apr 14 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @ Jaret - I think you underestimate how little it takes to get a stock moving down. It's called momentum. 189M shares, or even half that, is sufficient to hold a stock down for many many months! MU stock is going nowhere (but sideways) until the Company permanently retires those convertible notes. And FYI, MU is down 12% since April 3rd. That's >2x the Nasdaq, and after a solid Earnings Beat.
    MU is going nowhere until the Company retires those convertibles. As an MU investor, that certainly matters....and it's certainly a big deal!
    Apr 14 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @ Jaret - I disagree partially, since you haven't considered what this does to the stock price moving forward. As I see it, this puts a "lid" on the stock price, at least for the forseeable future. Any positive movement is going to be offset by more short selling (by these jokers holding the convertibles). As Phred points out, 189M shares far exceeds even the current total short interest (117M). That's scary! So there's still lots of room for these jokers (ie convertible note holders) to short the stock even more! What's worse is that there's NO implied Buy-to-Cover at a later date (unless Micron decides to settle in cash with them...which seems doubtful right now). Bottom line, we're going to see more Shorting into any MU strength. (If you disagree I'd love to hear your rationale.)

    Ultimately, this means that MU is a less attractive investment, at least until these convertibles are retired.
    Apr 14 05:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Appears To Be A Good Investment At This Point In Time [View article]
    Clearly the author needs to do more research regarding NAND vs DRAM. DRAM is certainly NOT limited to just PC's. In fact, Micron/Elpida is currently supplying 1GB DRAM chips for iPhone5 (specifically 1GB LPDDR3 mobile-DRAM). And I expect Micron/Elpida will be the *primary* DRAM supplier for iPhone6 (specifically 2GB LPDDR4 mobile-DRAM).
    http://bit.ly/1fB36Do

    DRAM is not going away! DRAM is fundamental to ANY kind of computing architecture. Whether it's a smartphone, tablet, laptop, desktop, server, "cloud" server, super-computer, etc. THEY ALL NEED DRAM!
    Apr 14 04:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Thanks Phred! Obviously, I'd love to see the shorts get squeezed.
    Apr 13 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    I think they repay the Short by "converting" their notes to shares. So then there is NO buy-to-cover at a later date. That's why the "short interest" metric is deceptive wrt MU....it's a poor indicator of future buying. At least that's my understanding.
    Apr 13 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    It sounds like the CFO threw shareholders under the proverbial "bus", in order to save a few basis points on debt. This has got to be one of the dumbest financial manuevers of the decade. The Micron Execs might as well put up giants flags in Boise saying "Please do NOT buy our stock!"

    Seriously, this is like a giant anvil weighing on the stock price.
    Higher stock price => increased selling by these holders of convertible notes => lower stock price
    Apr 13 11:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Opportunity Knocks, Yet Wait For This Signal To Buy [View article]
    Don't forget: Market is Closed on Fri due to Good Friday holiday. So then Thurs 17th might be exciting...if history is any indication, it will be down day for MU (due to Options expiration). The Shorts really come out on options expiration.
    Apr 13 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Opportunity Knocks, Yet Wait For This Signal To Buy [View article]
    I'm looking at ~$20.75 as my next potential buy point. But if that doesn't hold, then I may exit my position entirely. You just can't keep buying down forever.....I made that mistake in the crash of 2001. MU is definitely undervalued, but Mr. Market doesn't seem to care. You just can't beat a mob of people running for the exits.
    Apr 11 12:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Join Gurus And Buy Value And Growth Play Micron At Cheap Prices [View article]
    @Keith - Thanks for the analysis. So, from what I understand, it is the holders of MU convertible debt that are doing most of the short selling. I suppose they are making money by writing covered calls (out-of-the-money covered calls) and collecting a premium. Thereafter they short-sell MU to ensure that their call-options (i.e. the ones they wrote) expire worthless. Hence, the premium is their profit. Is that the gist of it? It just seems like they are wasting $1 to earn $0.95 ???? Let's not forget that the "cost" of this strategy is that they had to short-sell MU at say $22, which is an opportunity cost. i.e. Instead of short-selling the stock @ $22, wouldn't they have been better off if they had simply held the stock and sold it at a higher price, let's say >$26? The bottom line is that they are holders of MU stock, and just like everyone else in the market, they will make more money selling at a higher price (vs lower price). Also, by short-selling MU, they risk driving the stock into free-fall, in which case they'd be losing their shirts (because again, they own the stock, by virtue of the convertible debt).

    Am I missing something here? I just don't see how their strategy is more profitable than any other strategy (such as simply holding the stock, and selling at higher price, such as > $26). They are also playing a dangerous game, since it could drive the stock into free-fall, in which case they'd lose big-time (just like everyone else who owns the stock).

    Am I missing something here? Is there something in the mechanics of their strategy that I've overlooked?
    Apr 9 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron, Intel, Apple: A Tale Of 3 Companies [View article]
    @Jaret - For the next few months, it seems a foregone conclusion that MU stock price is going to take a severe beating at every options expiration date. Agree or disagree? Thanks.
    Apr 7 04:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: It's The Cash Flow Stupid [View article]
    Wow, this company is so poorly managed....hitting on about 4 cylinders in a V8. They could be doing so much better in so many different aspects. Apple revenue is light (in my opinion) and this convertible bond stuff. It's only due to a super favorable marketplace elsewhere that they've been able to hit their numbers. But they could be doing infinitely better. The future could hold lots of upside potential, if they can clean things up, start hitting on all 8 cylinders. But I'm in agreement regarding fiscal Q3.....it's too soon and probably gonna be flat to down. Just no catalysts in fiscal Q3. But on the bright side, the PR looks to be pretty favorable! So many sub-plots here! Russ should write a book!
    Apr 4 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    The more I hear about these convertible bonds, the less I like them. Sounds like an easy way for MU to raise cash, but with too many negative reprecussions. But I'd like to learn more too. Article would be helpful. You guys seem to understand that side very well.
    Apr 4 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Buy Hard And Hold Through Earnings [View article]
    @ platonic - Correction: I got my calendar vs fiscal Q's mixed up. I was speaking calendar Q's below. Wilson is correct: definitely would not impact fiscal Q3 unfortunately. Best case would be late Q4 and Q1-2015.
    Apr 4 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: It's The Cash Flow Stupid [View article]
    I wonder if someone on here is masquerading as Einhorn to do some recon? Reminds me of the Pet Detective movie: "Einhorn is Finkle! Finkle is Einhorn!" I'll bet he never gets tired of hearing that one!!!
    Apr 4 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
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