kish, Congratulations. Anyone taking an introductory course on Stochastic Processes should be able to answer that question. That's the point. It should be an EASY question for anyone claiming to be a math expert. You missed my point entirely.

russ, For TA, I'm going to put it to the test using EE Mathematical Pattern Recognition techniques. Well see. But I'm optimistic. For Stochastic Processes, I already know it's true. Men as brilliant as Einstein and Andrey Markov and Simeon Poisson and Robert Merton have already proven it. Anyone who doesn't believe in Stochastic Processes might also be interested in joining The Flat Earth Society.

For those folks that believe in Technical Analysis, I AM WITH YOU! Don't listen to Jaret!! Don't listen to that guy!! I intend to demonstrate that Technical Analysis works, and works reliably. I believe that when coupled with modern concepts in Mathematical Pattern Recognition, the reliability of Technical Analysis can be improved substantially. So please, keep the Technical Analysis stuff coming! I love to see it! And I'm sure others on the site love to see it too! And if Jaret gives you any flak, just ask him to explain the difference between Convergence in Probability and Convergence in Mean-Square. Let the Math Genius chew on that for a while!

I said Hedge Funds, not Mutual Funds. Please listen very closely: I'm not here to sell anything to anyone. If you don't want to believe in Mathematics, that's your call. It doesn't effect me one way or the other. In fact, better if you don't believe. My only point is this: If someone like Jaret claims to be a Math Genius, and is constantly critical of others on that basis, then he should at least be familiar with Stochastic Processes such as Markov Chains and Brownian Motion. But clearly he is not. And clearly he is not the superior Math intellect that he claims to be. And clearly he needs to be less critical of others. I'm tired of seeing Jaret criticize eveyone on the basis of his alleged math superiority. Judge not lest ye be judged. That's my point.

3Q EPS estimate has risen again today: $0.70 (Yahoo Finance). Monday afternoon call is going to be very interesting. Market reaction is going to be exceedingly interesting!

The study of Stochastic Processes has been around since the early 1900's. Einstein even contributed to the study of Brownian Motion, which you mention with such derision. The point is to probabilistically describe some non-deterministic phenomenon. The point is to bring order out of apparent chaos; to probabilistically predict the outcome within some degree of certainty. It has been applied to numerous disciplines. It was embraced by Electrical Engineers as a way of improving the efficiency of wireless networks. Today's wireless protocols, such as CDMA, are heavily influenced by Stochastic Processes to vastly improve data transmission. Dr. Andrew Viterbi is an original co-founder of a little company called Qualcomm. Every year he gives a lecture at USC (where he received his PhD in Electrical Engineering). Without fail, his lectures always focus on Stochastic Processes. That's how important this subject is to wireless communications. That's how real it is. If your smart phone works, that's proof that Stochastic Processes really do work. It works in any discipline where there is a degree of uncertainty. It works in wireless communications just as it works in financial markets. I've studied the mathematics in my Electrical Engineering background. The mathematics doesn't lie.

jaret, There you go again, belittling something you don't understand. I see you doing this constantly on this site: belittling others and their ideas. You seem to have this superiority complex, and yet ironically, your arrogance is completely misplaced. I'm laughing at your statement that "Randomness is not predictable." It shows your ignorance of this issue. The correct answer is: IT DEPENDS on the DEGREE of Randomness. Here's a fact for you: Things are not always 100% random! In fact, almost nothing is 100% random. In fact, the ONLY THING that is 100% Random is White Noise. Everything else in the world is only "random" to some degree. And to the extent that it's not 100% random, it CAN be predicted in a Probabilistic Manner using Stochastic Processes! So then I can say with xx% degree of certainty that some event will occur. Of course, I can never say with 100% accuracy, but I don't need to. In fact, if I can just improve my odds by 1%, then indeed, I can make a better decision. It's like counting cards in Blackjack. You don't need a huge edge in order to win at Blackjack. With a mere 1% probabilistic edge, you can take the casino over time! That is exactly the point of Stochastic Processes. Things are not as random as you might think, or as they might appear. They are only random TO A DEGREE. And to the extent that they aren't 100% random, Stochastic Processes allows man to make better decisions. The same is true for the stock market. If I can find a Stochastic Process which underlies the market, then I can Probabilistically "beat" the market. It's already being done today! It's called Financial Engineering. It has it's roots in Electrical Engineering (for reasons I won't get into). But it has grown into a full-fledged Engineering discipline. And in fact, it IS creating billionaires. They are called Hedge Fund managers. They can't hire Financial Engineers fast enough!! Financial Engineering is real Mathematics, and it really works. If you are truly a man of mathematics, they I suggest you study Stochastic Processes a bit more. It is the basis for Financial Engineering. It is rigorous Mathematics and it really works. Don't be so quick to dismiss everything you don't understand.

Jaret, As a math guy, aren't you familiar with Markov Process and Brownian Motion as models for the Financial Markets? What about Black-Scholes as the foundation for the modern derivatives market? This is definitely waaaay beyond TA. These are mathematically rigorous models for financial markets using formal Probability Spaces and Stochastic Calculus (e.g. Ito Calculus). Have you studied any of this? I'm just wondering since you are a self-proclaimed math guru, and yet you seem to be oblivious.

Bruce, In my estimation, there is a very high probability that EPS will be $0.70 to $0.75. So then MU will "beat" the consensus estimate of $0.69, but fall well short of $0.85 (Q2 result). How does the market react to that? That's the $64,000 question for me. I'm not convinced one way or the other. Especially with all of the analysts jumping on the MU bus recently, they will be inclined to spin any result as a "beat."

Cramer just plugged Micron on his show. He thinks MU will crush the estimates when they report on Monday. But I just don't see it. I see a mild beat coming, but just barely. And I think there's a reasonable chance they miss on Revenue. But maybe Cramer is privy to information I'm not.....

Congrats again on the monster profits! That's one of the best I've heard lately! Did you sell your Jan2015's or Jan2016's or both ? What were they trading at when you picked them up back in April? If you don't mind my asking.... :) I haven't gotten into LEAPS yet, but I'm starting to be convinced.

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

You win closest to the pin!! Your estimate was the closest I've seen!! Well done!!

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

Also, I have never claimed to be a math expert myself. I would never be so bold. I just don't like seeing others being bullied by someone else.

As for me, I am happy to simply understand what other great men have created. I sit in awe of their accomplishments.

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

Congratulations. Anyone taking an introductory course on Stochastic Processes should be able to answer that question. That's the point. It should be an EASY question for anyone claiming to be a math expert. You missed my point entirely.

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

For TA, I'm going to put it to the test using EE Mathematical Pattern Recognition techniques. Well see. But I'm optimistic.

For Stochastic Processes, I already know it's true. Men as brilliant as Einstein and Andrey Markov and Simeon Poisson and Robert Merton have already proven it. Anyone who doesn't believe in Stochastic Processes might also be interested in joining The Flat Earth Society.

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

You mean obese men with extra large egos? No I really don't care for them.

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

Don't listen to Jaret!! Don't listen to that guy!! I intend to demonstrate that Technical Analysis works, and works reliably. I believe that when coupled with modern concepts in Mathematical Pattern Recognition, the reliability of Technical Analysis can be improved substantially. So please, keep the Technical Analysis stuff coming! I love to see it! And I'm sure others on the site love to see it too! And if Jaret gives you any flak, just ask him to explain the difference between Convergence in Probability and Convergence in Mean-Square. Let the Math Genius chew on that for a while!

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

## Micron Technology Earnings Preview: Margin Expansion Robust, Stock Less Undervalued [View article]

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

There you go again, belittling something you don't understand. I see you doing this constantly on this site: belittling others and their ideas. You seem to have this superiority complex, and yet ironically, your arrogance is completely misplaced. I'm laughing at your statement that "Randomness is not predictable." It shows your ignorance of this issue. The correct answer is: IT DEPENDS on the DEGREE of Randomness. Here's a fact for you: Things are not always 100% random! In fact, almost nothing is 100% random. In fact, the ONLY THING that is 100% Random is White Noise. Everything else in the world is only "random" to some degree. And to the extent that it's not 100% random, it CAN be predicted in a Probabilistic Manner using Stochastic Processes! So then I can say with xx% degree of certainty that some event will occur. Of course, I can never say with 100% accuracy, but I don't need to. In fact, if I can just improve my odds by 1%, then indeed, I can make a better decision. It's like counting cards in Blackjack. You don't need a huge edge in order to win at Blackjack. With a mere 1% probabilistic edge, you can take the casino over time! That is exactly the point of Stochastic Processes. Things are not as random as you might think, or as they might appear. They are only random TO A DEGREE. And to the extent that they aren't 100% random, Stochastic Processes allows man to make better decisions. The same is true for the stock market. If I can find a Stochastic Process which underlies the market, then I can Probabilistically "beat" the market. It's already being done today! It's called Financial Engineering. It has it's roots in Electrical Engineering (for reasons I won't get into). But it has grown into a full-fledged Engineering discipline. And in fact, it IS creating billionaires. They are called Hedge Fund managers. They can't hire Financial Engineers fast enough!! Financial Engineering is real Mathematics, and it really works. If you are truly a man of mathematics, they I suggest you study Stochastic Processes a bit more. It is the basis for Financial Engineering. It is rigorous Mathematics and it really works. Don't be so quick to dismiss everything you don't understand.

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

As a math guy, aren't you familiar with Markov Process and Brownian Motion as models for the Financial Markets? What about Black-Scholes as the foundation for the modern derivatives market? This is definitely waaaay beyond TA. These are mathematically rigorous models for financial markets using formal Probability Spaces and Stochastic Calculus (e.g. Ito Calculus). Have you studied any of this? I'm just wondering since you are a self-proclaimed math guru, and yet you seem to be oblivious.

## Micron Technology Earnings Preview: Margin Expansion Robust, Stock Less Undervalued [View article]

In my estimation, there is a very high probability that EPS will be $0.70 to $0.75. So then MU will "beat" the consensus estimate of $0.69, but fall well short of $0.85 (Q2 result). How does the market react to that? That's the $64,000 question for me. I'm not convinced one way or the other. Especially with all of the analysts jumping on the MU bus recently, they will be inclined to spin any result as a "beat."

## Micron Technology Earnings Preview: Margin Expansion Robust, Stock Less Undervalued [View article]

## Micron: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]

I haven't gotten into LEAPS yet, but I'm starting to be convinced.