Augustus

The Stimulus Fallacy: The Problem Is Who the Money Was Given to

The bailout package was passed by a vote that included the large majority of Obangye's party and was crafted by Barney and Chris. IIRC, OBangye even voted in favor. While on the campaign trail he announced that he would only vote in favor if the "Taxpayer's were Protected." The Dems finger prints were on ever piece of it, including the nonsense earmarks they included. For the Dems now to disavow responsibility is re-writing history.

On Nov 24 11:53 AM conceptwizard wrote:

> By the time Barack Obama was elected president in November 2008,
> the U.S. was mired in seemingly endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq,
> and the worst recession since the Great Depression was picking up
> speed. In order to prevent total disaster, the Bush administration
> ended its eight years of catastrophic misrule with a flourish, by
> allocating over $700 billion in financial system bailouts to cover
> the bad loans the banks had been making since Greenspan gave the
> housing bubble the green light.
>
> It is now November 2009. Since Barack Obama was inaugurated in January,
> unemployment has soared from 7.9 percent to 10.2 percent. A few hundred
> billion dollars were allocated for “stimulus” purposes, but most
> of that went to pay unemployment benefits and to keep state and local
> governments from laying off more employees.
>
> A fraction has been distributed for highway improvements, but largely
> through the bank bailouts the federal deficit has been running at
> an annual rate of $1.5 trillion, by far the largest in history, with
> the national debt now topping $12 trillion, not including unfunded
> liabilities. Ironically, those Americans who still have productive
> jobs continue to grow in efficiency, with productivity up over five
> percent in the last year.

Whatever Happened to Those Ethanol Companies?

There will never be enough food production as long as governments continue to destroy productive operations. Zimbabwe is the poster child. There is not a land or capability problem.

If you review the numbers for corn production, you will find that production has increased by more than the amount used for ethanol. There is no basis for your conclusions.

On Nov 24 12:25 PM fastcad wrote:

> converting food to fuel (corn to ethanol) never made sense.
>
> With six billion mouths to feed on earth, there will never be enough
> land, water or fertilizer to grow food and fuel at the same time.

Whatever Happened to Those Ethanol Companies?

It is nonsense to say that Bush was an ethanol promoter. Bush was in favor of Drill, Baby, Drill. Whatever was done to increase ethanol production was done to placate the greenie nutters who became the OBangye accolytes.


On Nov 24 08:24 AM Tom B wrote:

> Ethanol was heavily promoted by BUSH. I'll grant you Obama did not "kill" it, being from a corn state, but put the blame where it belongs.>

FDIC Keeping Mum About Real Estate Auction Results

Holding defaulted / foreclosed properties will cost a lender at least 2% a month. You may have a point about the auctions depressing the market. Note that the the market can never recover with a large inventory of homes waiting to be unloaded, and that the Fed institutions will cause very large taxpayer losses during an extended holding period.

Frankley, I don't care much what my house is worth unless I have to deal with an insurance claim and replacement costs. I bought it. I paid for it. It still is as useful as when I purchased it. If I want to move, I can maybe take a lickin' and give a lickin' on the other end. Fair enough as I needed the shelter.

Trouble with the Russells

Good point User. The very greatest majority of sustained stock market gains will occur when small caps are outperforming the large caps. I don't hvae a link to the studies right now but it is a good indicator to monitor, as you note.

On Nov 21 08:54 AM User 363108 wrote:

> Interestingly as I have been weekly charting the RUT against the
> OEX for many years, the RUT/OEX ratio during mid December 08 gave
> a positive divergence by crossings it's 10 week moving average as
> an early heads up of the general market bottom in March 09. Combining
> this signal with a similar COMP/SPX ratio has historically given
> some excellent earlier warnings of market direction change. These
> two market indexes ratios gave a sell 4 weeks ago. Beware below.

Krugman on the Invisible Bond Vigilantes

When Krugman wrote that 2003 piece it was a Republican in the Whitehouse. Now, with maybe 10X the deficit and the comming bankruptcy of both the large Ponzi schemes of Medicare and Social Security, Krugman can ignore reality to support his favorite political cause. Of course, when he wrote the critical 2003 article, it came after he had been advising the Japanese government for several years to employ a version of Quantative Easing and govt. spending.

When it is all evaluated you can easily see that Krugman will write conflicting advice with the weight of the full authority of a Nobel Prize winner. It is really astounding that he is still able to find a stage.

More AIG Controversy: Maiden Lane III

It is pretty much impossible to determine if a particular CDS was really "naked" as you allude to. Suppose I've got insurance on IBM debt. Wouldn't that also theoretically protect me in event of default by the US Govt?

The Carry Trade Has Created Asset Bubbles

As bad as the returns will be on the money invested in the banks is the much less obvious effect of picking winners. Allowing GE to get $45 bln in cheap funding while CIT goes broke because they are paying risk based market rates is just one example. Now we have the guarantees of funding for GMAC and its bank in order to prop up GM and the union autoworker stockholders who pillaged the company in the first place. This has to result in a bad ending.

Meredith Whitney: 'I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year'

Calling Bull Ship on this run up 4% early should not be a reason for disparagement. If it moves up to 12,000 then get on her case.


On Nov 16 10:29 PM hobart_the_dish_guy wrote:

> Meridith has been bearish for the past 400 points on the Dow. That's
> fine, but apparently she doesn't quite understand the market forces
> that have caused/allowed this. While she has been right in the past,
> so have a lot of other market "guru's".

Sen. Dorgan: The System Is Rigged

Byron Dorgan could not understand the probalities of a coin flip. He specializes and profits from insuring that the system is rigged. Send that turnip home.

MLPs: GP / LP Relationship Is Key

As noted, MTP is a closed end fund and entails a management fee. There is nothing particularly illegitimate about that, just something to be aware of. I very much like the sector and believe that it is mispriced as it does not have much immediate momentum juice at any particular time. They just keep sawing logs and adding to the woodpile.

A good approach would be to follow MTP and try to buy it when at a discount to NAV. that will also probably happen when the sector is well out of favor. Considering that they are for the most part simply toll collectors it is a pretty safe income generator.


On Oct 23 02:04 AM scoots wrote:

> What about MTP? Is this a true ETF in the MLP area? If so, could
> it be useful instead of woning MLPs themselves.
>
> Scooter

MLPs: GP / LP Relationship Is Key

It would be much better if you would check with the IRS. The UBTI check is for a TOTAL number of $1,000. Buy KMR as it is selling at a discount anyway. Maybe AMJ if you can tolerate the ETN problem.


On Oct 22 05:08 PM Smackdown wrote:

> I just got off the phone with investor relations of a large MLP.
> They indeed confirmed that I am correct and that the UBTI does not
> net out across multiple holdings. It is MLP specific. For example,
> you own 10 MLPS in an IRA that each have $900 in UBTI. It is not
> added up. No tax is due.
>
> Hope this helps.

Reaching for Yields with MLPs

The article is confusing in that it makes no distinction when referring to WMB and WPZ. Of course, WPZ is the MLP that has the very nice dividend.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

jsg,
You must have overlooked the fact that at some point the values of whatever the positions were must have declined. They cannot both own it to create the hypothetical bubble and also profit when the value declines. How does that work, exactly?


On Nov 13 10:00 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> augus -
> oil fell from 140 to 40 when GS had other financial commitments to
> meet & liquidation of part of the portfolio of futures was required.
>
> just as trees don;t grow to the sky, bubbles don't expand to occupy
> the entire volume of the solar system.
> GS & their partners in crime ran their air compressors full blast
> (40/1 leverage) & made a biggg bubble.
> in a game of musical chairs, when the music stops there is always
> some poor schmo who can't find a chair.
> don't cry for GS, some other schmo got vaporized, not GS.

Suburban Propane's Future Looks Bright

Propane can be more dangerous than LNG. Propane is a heavier molecule and is stripped from the naturla gas stream. When there is a leak, it does not disperse as LNG does. It will collect as a gas in any low spot and can be more concentrated so that it could create a breathing problem, as well as an explosive problem.