Seeking Alpha

Dimitrije's  Instablog

Dimitrije
Send Message
Bachelor of Science in Business Admin and Marketing. Currently working as a private company director.
My blog:
ramblings...
View Dimitrije's Instablogs on:
  • What's in store for CEL-SCI (CVM)
    Before you can truly appreciate an opinion piece such as this please make sure you are familiar with the company itself. Do your own DD from reputable verifiable sources.   This way you can appreciate what is being said if it helps you and be able to spot the BS quickly.
     
    The prediction for Cel Sci share price for the next few weeks or so will be pretty much determined by these three factors or a combination there of. Techinals, Shorts, and News.
     
    Technicals
    ·         Assuming no news being released of course
    ·         Intermediate trend is bearish. Uptrend has turned sideways, may continue or pullback.
    ·         Most likely short term rally will start to slow then pull back.
    ·         Resistance: 1.79 ± 0.16, 
    ·         Support 1.06 ± 0.09,
    ·         Judgment is that without any news stock will continue to drift downwards probably at ~ -5%/day. I don’t see this stock reaching sub $1.00 levels in the next month or so.
     
    Shorts
    Shares Short:                                     10,425,800 
    Days To Cover (Short Ratio):       1.4 
    Short % of Float:                               7.43 %
    Short % Increase:                             9.50 %
    % from 52-Week HIGH:                 -55.56 % 
    % from 50 Day MA:                         -4.44 %
    Shares Short -Prior Mo:                 9,520,900
     
    This is my take CEL-SCI shorts.
     
    An average investor will generally not short stocks that are under $20.00. These provide low risk of insane loses and it generally means there is a good amount of information regarding the company out there so you can make an informed judgment.
     
     Trying to understand why somebody would short a stock such as CVM when presented with such high risk is beyond me. The only reason I can see is because a stock such as this is somewhat influenced by bashers and bloggers with personal agendas. Main reason being is that there is just not enough firm information and a lot of information that is available is speculation.   Just look at the amount of bashing posts on message boards. Every other post is full of irrelevant information meant to scare newbies that are researching the stock or to scare the weak ones who are currently holding. 
     
    The only reason why somebody would spend so much time posting garbage is because they have a vested interest in doing so. It’s by far easier to scare people and bring the stock value down than it is to instill confidence.   Basically the ones shorting are scared that the coverage the company has been getting might bring an influx of people buying and majority of shorts to cover to avoid losses. Therefore causing the price to rise and triggering a squeeze.    The fact that this stock might jump at any given time is just more incentive for them to do so.
     
    I see the fact that there is so much short interest as a good thing. I foresee a short squeeze happening as soon as the stock reaches above $1.75 ± 0.10 which at the rate this stock has moved could be very soon. I also foresee them getting more desperate and the bashing posts increasing closer we get to that price.
     
     
    News
     
    Following are the news that will cause the stock to rise
     
    Validation of the facility ONLY
     
    Stock price will most likely be in the $2.50-$4.50. 
     
    Reason for the stock going up is the fact that once the facility is validated that means that CEL-SCI can start receiving income. (approx $150,000/day). If there are any contracts announced then the price will of course be higher. 
     
    The reason it’s not going up thru the roof is that:
    1.       The news has been out for a long time and is partly priced in already
    2.       The validation by itself doesn’t mean income it just means that the company is able to get income.
     
    Significant news regarding LEAPS-H1N1:
     
    By this I mean either sick human clinical trials or any kind of official government recognition. Depending on the news the price could quite easily go above $10.00 and possibly end up around $20-$30 (not probable soon but quite possible).
     
    Reason for this is simple. LEAPS is not a vaccine and is a treatment that boosts body’s own immunity. There are no competitors and at the rate the flu has been affecting people it will be a very good tool for doctors. Income from this would be quite substantial.
     
    Multikine news
     
    Again depending on the type of news the share price could jump significantly.   The drug will provide significant income to the company and more concrete the news are the higher the price will go.
     
    Tags: CVM
    Nov 13 1:03 AM | Link | 8 Comments
  • Pay close attention to CEL SCI (CVM) in the next two weeks...
     Here are the links to the conference that is being held in two weeks.

     www.gtcbio.com/userAgenda.aspx?id=166

     More info what the conference is about

     www.csc.com/dvc/events/30746-7th_annual_...

     www.pressabout.com/vaccines-all-things-c.../

     

    So let’s see…

    CEL SCI scientists have a large portion of speaking time unlike at the ACR convention where they were one amongst hundreds. 

    In attendance will be…

    Industry leaders, academic and government organizations, and the financial community. 

     

    "GTCbio’s Vaccines conference will also bring together leading government officials, with representatives from the DHHS and the FDA"

     

    You draw your own conclusions…

    Disclosure: Long CVM

    Oct 28 5:40 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Why invest in CEL-SCI Corp (CVM)
     
    With the amount of hype and madness this company has been getting recently it’s becoming increasing more difficult to sort thru the enormous amount of BS that is out there. Majority of the madness is coming from either not understanding what the company and its products are about or having ulterior motives for putting out information that is either biased or flat out wrong.   The fact is that majority of what you will read as of recent is simply some guys opinion and nothing more.   It’s been said over and over again that each investor should do his/her own research and due diligence when researching a stock and not rely on opinions. However when money is on the table and information is scarce—many will fall prey to the predators that lurk in the blue wide yonder that is the internet. I spend a considerable amount of time researching this company and I will post that research for everybody to make their own decisions. I am not a journalist or a blogger so don’t expect some grand insight or witty article. All I have is links to verifiable sources such as government websites and other confirmable sources not some website a 16 year old put up overnight.   
    First some basic information about the company:
     
    CEL-SCI Corporation is developing new immune system based treatments for cancer and infectious diseases. The Company's most advanced product, Multikine, manufactured using the company's proprietary cell culture technologies, is being developed for the treatment of cancer. Multikine is designed to target the tumor micro-metastises that are mostly responsible for treatment failure. The basic idea of Multikine is to make current cancer treatments more successful. The lead indication is advanced primary head & neck cancer. Since Multikine is not tumor specific, it may also be applicable in many other solid tumors. The Company also owns a pre-clinical technology called L.E.A.P.S., Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System. The lead product derived from this technology is the CEL-1000 peptide which has shown protection in animals against herpes, malaria and cancer. With the help of government grants and US Army and US Navy collaborations, CEL-1000 is now being tested against viral encephalitis, West Nile Virus, SARS, Vaccinia, Smallpox, herpes, malaria and other agents. If the bio-terrorism tests are successful, CEL-SCI is likely to push CEL-1000 for potential bio-terrorism disease indications to gain accelerated approval.
     
    The company holds several patents in the field and has several in pre-grant status. See the links below from United States Patent and Trademark Office .
     
    The company has two products. 
    Multikine®, CEL-SCI's flagship cancer product, is the first immunotherapeutic agent being developed as a first-line standard of care cancer treatment. Multikine® is a different kind of weapon in the fight against cancer; one that harnesses our body's natural ability to fight tumors.
    Multikine® is also the first of a new class of cancer immunotherapy drugs. It is the first comprehensive immunotherapy and the first Immune SIMULATOR.
    L.E.A.P.S.™ is a patented, T-cell modulation, peptide epitope delivery technology that enables CEL-SCI to design and synthesize proprietary peptide immunogens. L.E.A.P.S.™ compounds consist of a small T-cell binding peptide ligand linked with a disease-associated peptide antigen.
    This new technology has been shown in several animal models to preferentially direct immune response to a cellular (e.g. T-cell), humoral (antibody) or mixed pathway. Any disease for which antigenic epitope sequences have been identified, such as: infectious diseases, cancer, autoimmune diseases, allergic asthma and allergy, and select CNS diseases (e.g., Alzheimer’s) are potential candidates for this technology platform.
     
     
    Since I have a very basic understanding of biochemistry and by no means am I an expert, I’ll attempt to explain what they are currently used for. Both of the drugs are immunotherapy drugs—their role is to help the immune system during treatment not flat out cure the disease. There has been a number of posts and blogs about supposed statements that company has made regarding what these drugs do.
     For example many have the wrong impression that LEAPS-H1N1 treatment is a vaccine for the swine flu and have created their arguments around this point; when the facts are that the drug is not a vaccine rather its role is to help the patients who already have the H1N1 to recover. Personally I think this is the right approach since the virus has shown signs of mutation and resistance to certain conventional treatments and the market is already swamped with many other companies developing vaccines.  Read more about the LEAPS treatment
    Multikine has essentially the same role expect in cancer cells.  Recently talked about use is in reducing the size of the tumor in head and neck cancer patients so that the doctors can performs surgeries easier and with the least amount of cosmetic damage.  It has also uses in treating cervical cancer. 
    In addition Multikine has been approved by the FDA for phase III trials. Multikine has also been granded the Orphan Status by the FDA.
     
    In addition CEL-SCI scientists will present a paper regarding their CEL-2000 (rheumatoid arthritis treatment based on L.E.A.P.S) in upcoming ACR/ARHP 2009.
     
     
    Some information about the much talked about cold fill facility
    Address:
     
     
    Hopefully this has helped you better understand the company and what they are trying to accomplish. Should you invest? The choice is yours. I know I am and so are the company insiders…
     
     
     Disclosure: Long on CVM
     
    Oct 09 1:43 AM | Link | 9 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.