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danzada

danzada
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  • Daily State Of The Markets: Has A New Secular Bull Market Been Born? [View article]
    If the market is made up of players, and most of these players are almost sure of the market turning south relatively soon - then what is going to keep these players from running to the exits and causing a self-fulfilling prophecy once the first catalyst comes along?

    If we were balls-deep in Syria right now instead of having peace-talks (which really could have gone either way) would the market be approaching all-time highs again or would it be heading south very quickly?
    Sep 16 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Yield Curve Steepens [View article]
    "whatever the most frequently bandied about number is, per month."

    I'm pretty sure this is the most important aspect of the math when trying to figure out what the equilibrium interest rate should be while the fed's demand in the market dries up.
    Sep 6 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields tumble followng NFP miss [View news story]
    I don't see how it can occur. Almost every release of statistics stinks of either manipulation (Let's revise how we calculate GDP!) or are just plain terrible when you consider the labor participation rate and the amount of underemployment.

    The whole recovery has been a joke, and DC isn't helping at all. We've more than extended the use of monetary supply at this point - now DC needs to enact some fiscal stimulus. Maybe we can get one of those shiny fast trains, or roads that are more road than pothole.
    Sep 6 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Periphery Is Failing [View article]
    I'm not sure if you actually work, but the only reason corporate earnings are at such astronomical levels is because their current employees are doing jobs that once took 2 or more people to do.

    This can't be sustained forever, and the amount of financial tricks used to increase stock prices can only take you so far.
    Aug 27 08:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Periphery Is Failing [View article]
    No, not print - did you read my comment? I said we need to transfer wealth from the rich to fund stimulus spending. The amount of inequality in this country is staggering, and the highest it has been since before the great depression. This doesn't require the fed, it's purely fiscal, not monetary.

    There's no reason why we can't raise taxes 20-30% on incomes over $400,000, close loopholes that rich people are constantly using (lets face it, most of them are not going to leave the country because of this), and stop letting corporations pay almost no taxes.

    But what do I know, I only have a masters degree in economics and am in agreement with almost any other economist who isn't deluded.
    Aug 27 08:06 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Periphery Is Failing [View article]
    I totally agree that Bernanke had little other choice in what he did. However he ended up masking over how depressed the economy had truly gotten, and therefore there ended up being very little incentive in Washington to continue with their stimulus efforts post-2010.

    This country is going to need some massive stimulus once the Fed starts to unwind and uncover the mess underneath. With the debt levels where they are now we're going to have to undo the massive trickle-down economics brainwashing that caused this whole mess in the first place. Taxes on the wealthy, where all the income gains have been over the past 30 years, will need to go up dramatically, and new investments will have to be driven by the government with this increased income. There is a massive potential to increase infrastructure spending, green energy spending, research spending, education spending, etc... that has not been unlocked yet due to the massive road blocks put up at every turn by the House of Representatives.

    However I feel that this coming collapse may just be enough to convince the economically retarded republicans that fixing the economy is more important than making the president fail.
    Aug 27 07:46 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Black Swan Events Developing In China [View article]
    One reason they might not sell U.S. treasuries is because we're their biggest customer. If they cause our economy to suffer then they're indirectly doing damage to their own, during a time when their growth is already slowing.

    I'd guess that they would sell off gold before U.S. treasuries.
    Jun 26 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Black Swan Events Developing In China [View article]
    "It remains amazing to me that many folks still have the audacity to say that the entire system should have been allowed to implode."

    Anybody saying this can be immediately written off as uneducated when it comes to economics and finance, even if they have a piece of paper that says otherwise.
    Jun 26 04:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is Set To Grow [View article]
    Which is exactly why they're all still at such a discount.
    May 7 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks continue to slide with the Fed's Bullard's suggesting the bank's QE program could be expanded having little effect. Leading the slump are Apple, -4.5% and threatening a "3" handle, and Bank of America -4.4% after missing earnings estimates. S&P 500 -1.6%, Nasdaq -2%[View news story]
    There's also a very strong Dow Theory sell signal that will materialize today if the Dow closes below 14575. DJ Transportation has been in a down trend for a month or so already...
    Apr 17 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Crashing...And The Storm Begins [View article]
    Gold is dropping because all of those hyper-inflation theories (which were foolish to begin with if you followed the Keynesian school of thought, which seems to be the only school of thought that has been right about everything in this recession so far) aren't materializing.

    The Fed has these computer thingies that track tons of economic data in very sophisticated models in order to balance the money supply against inflation and unemployment very carefully. Is your gut feeling smarter than the Fed? Nope, and it's being proved completely irrational by this gold sell-off, which has only just begun.
    Apr 16 11:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    That hyper-inflation is right around the corner... it's coming... ignore that dip in CPI reported today, just another fluke economic indicator.
    Apr 16 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the open: Dow +0.04% to 14081. S&P +0.21% to 1519. Nasdaq +0.29% to 3172.
    Treasurys: 30-year +0.07%. 10-yr +0.08%. 5-yr +0.04%.
    Commodities: Crude +0.08% to $92.83. Gold -0.36% to $1589.9.
    Currencies: Euro -0.14% vs. dollar. Yen +0.13%. Pound -0.08%[View news story]
    That's the thing. Even if sequestration itself doesn't happen, the budget deficit is going to get slashed one way or another, and that is contractionary.
    Feb 28 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bulls, But This Is Still A Secular Bear Market [View article]
    It hasn't been just Bernanke helping the markets. The Federal Government's necessary delay in reducing the deficit has been helping immensely as well. This delay looks like it'll be ending soon, most likely before the Fed ends their help, so the system doesn't get too much of a shock all at once.
    Feb 25 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    The simple fact that the stock market continued to go up in the face of so many potential government spending cuts is enough to show that it is WAY overbought.

    I love how so many people don't believe in Keynesian economics until it comes time for spending cuts. Then for some reason these people all agree cuts will hurt the economy?

    I have a masters in economics and didn't know a single professor that didn't think that contractionary fiscal policy wasn't contractionary. Stop watching Fox News.

    Of course we have to cut spending, but don't be surprised when it isn't magically expansionary like so many have claimed over the past 4 years.
    Feb 20 07:29 PM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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