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danzada

danzada
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  • Is The Current Market Overvalued? [View article]
    If everybody believes that the market will crash when QE ends, then why would everybody wait for QE to end before pulling out?

    The crash will come when the fed is still flooding the market - look at the prices on bonds... they peaked over the summer.
    Feb 14 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Market Overvalued? [View article]
    Monetary policy works well up until you're down to the 0% mark. Then they have to start getting fancy as we've seen happen with all the QEs. The only thing that can prop up the Economy after that is fiscal policy, unless you choose to ignore what's been happening in Europe. When Obama and congress get their cuts and tax increases in a couple of months, the decrease in future GDP will immediately be priced in causing the market to correct. You could see it happen the last two times they battled over it and then eventually never pulled the trigger. This time they'll actually go through with it.
    Feb 14 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Favorite Valuation Metric Surges Over The 100% Level [View article]
    I don't think this is an indicator that should really trend up or down over time, but I'm not certain of that.
    Feb 13 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Favorite Valuation Metric Surges Over The 100% Level [View article]
    Why anybody would be putting more money into the market here is beyond me. Exceptional greed perhaps...

    There will be much better entry points in the future, this indicator pretty much guarantees it. I'm 100% in cash right now.
    Feb 13 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    It's like people forgot that the government is looking to DRASTICALLY reduce spending in a couple of months. This will get discounted immediately and create a decent sized correction.

    Also China and Europe are not even close to being completely in the clear yet. If you follow the Keynesian style of economic analysis (the one that has been completely correct about everything since 2009) in a recession, you know that Europe still has MANY years to go under their current monetary regime.

    And then the Fed and every central bank in the world will start unwinding their loose money in a couple of years. Wake up people.
    Feb 7 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Starting To Look Attractive Again [View article]
    AAPL is definitely doing this. Their strategy also helps to keep manufacturing and design secrets away from their competition.
    Feb 5 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Starting To Look Attractive Again [View article]
    I'm completely out of the market right now, waiting for a secondary correction at least (maybe even a primary trend reversal if Europe finally implodes and sets off a credit-market chain reaction). The only reason I'm not buying AAPL, or anything else here, is because of this risk.

    I don't see any point in trying to play the remaining run-up in the market with such a huge downside risk. I can wait for a correction like all smart investors do.
    Feb 5 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Starting To Look Attractive Again [View article]
    I really can't see earnings going down 20% while revenue is still increasing at 15% per year as the smartphone industry continues to grow... Margins aren't shrinking that fast.
    Feb 5 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Outlook: Stock Bulls May Have Room To Run, Bond Vigilantes Lurk [View article]
    James: That last part you wrote is key I think. There may be some run-up left, but most people see a decent correction coming eventually. I'm holding out for the correction...
    Feb 4 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Outlook: Stock Bulls May Have Room To Run, Bond Vigilantes Lurk [View article]
    I feel like China is at the end of an incredibly long bullish cycle, and will show signs of toppling this year as all of those warning signs from China can no longer be swept under the rug (property bubbles, over extended credit - all the usual signs that not even China is immune from).

    They might be the catalyst for the primary trend reversal coming this year.

    Another catalyst that may burst this bubble is when the 10-year projected budget cuts finally materialize from congress and get discounted into current prices. This one may be more likely than China. But either one could trigger the other and snowball.
    Feb 2 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday, February 1, 2013 - Weekly Sentiment Report [View instapost]
    Awesome analysis. Markets can't go up too fast or they collapse, even if it's somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Just look at the charts - every time that bull-bear sentiment hits these levels, it immediately crashes.
    Feb 2 02:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Remains A Strong Buy Despite Different Analyst Opinions [View article]
    @Leont68

    Nobody is going to leave India's zillion people alone.
    Feb 1 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Appoints Greg Brown to Board of Directors [View article]
    How can he do all of that and still be the CEO of a company? CEOs are a joke.
    Feb 1 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia Lifts Nokia Back To The Black [View article]
    Exactly. There is almost zero loyalty to the Android platform, unlike iOS. I can see tons of Android geeks switching over to Windows Phone, especially because it plays well with their PCs.
    Feb 1 10:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia Lifts Nokia Back To The Black [View article]
    @kimsky

    Exactly, growth investors would prefer Nokia didn't have a dividend since they're going for full-on growth now.
    Feb 1 10:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
136 Comments
307 Likes