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CarefulStudy

CarefulStudy
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  • Stolen Barclays' client data sold in "worst data breach ever" [View news story]
    Bizarre. I assume it should be extremely difficult to hack high net worth banking profiles ... and yet it has happened. So if Barclays can't keep their own clients data safe, I suppose that my own credit union is hopeless ... lol.

    Wonder if LOCK, EFX, FEYE, PANW, PFPT ZIXI, IMPV will rally tomorrow?
    Feb 9 06:42 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackRock announced it will liquidate the iShares Diversified Alternatives Trust (ALT) next month. "Based on the review and client feedback, it appears this product has a limited role in today’s investment portfolios, and we have seen little long-term demand," said Patrick Dunne, head of Global Markets and Investments for BlackRock. This will be the first closure for an iShares ETF since 2002. [View news story]
    Good Prediction
    Apr 27 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Earnings In Line - Doubling My Position [View article]
    Agree with all comments above. Consumers worldwide aren't going to significantly decrease buying/upgrading their phones because of a little temporary softer growth in the USA/China/Europe. The recent China data made some market makers nervous & they also correctly view QCOM as a pillar. It didn't blow out expectations but a 5% AH drop??? Simple knee jerk reaction. QCOM sure ain't going lower, so I'm a buyer.
    Apr 24 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's First Gold Factory [View article]
    Very interesting article, but DRD and other reprocessing companies only prove the thesis that there is no shortage of gold. Add the "sooner-than-you-think" tightening from the Fed and I wonder if the next 10 year price chart of this pretty yellow metal will look similiar to the 1990's. Every investor should own a little ... but investors who dare own a lot do so at their own peril.
    Mar 22 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It May Be Time To Question Dr. Copper's Degree [View article]
    I predict for all who want to listen: Commodities will on average, more or less, be FLAT over the next decade. Plenty of natural gas, plenty of gold, plenty of uranium that no one wants, plenty of increasingly fuel efficient cars.

    Maybe by 2025 commodities and especially oil will spike. Until then I'm sticking with stocks.
    Mar 22 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility And Market Sonar: Tuesday Recap [View article]
    Really appreciate your frankness & honesty from someone on the front lines. Yesterday, I bought my first puts in some time against the VXX - wild ride, I ended roughly flat. It's a trade that always produces profits - until it doesn't.
    Feb 27 07:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Wild, Wild West! [View article]
    Arne, I'm a fan, enjoy your articles, impressive track record and Amazon.com predictions. I'm typing this comment quickly in the early morning; I hope it's concise and sensical.

    In my polite opinion: You're incorrect about ultra-high speed internet connections all over the planet within less than 15 years. (Well, on second thought, maybe you are technically already correct since very expensive custom high speed data solutions are already currently available in the many, many impoverished regions of the planet like Afganistan, southern FARC controlled Colombia and extremist ravaged Sudan.)

    But indeed, that is my point: Who can afford this ultra-high speed internet? It sure ain't the impoverished populations. These long cycle emerging classes won't be able to afford much on the web for a very long time to come ... They still won't have much money by 2025. This is why I wonder about Amazon's global ambitions, especially compared to an already establishing, more traditional big box retailer like Carrefour, Tesco or Walmart.

    The aging Wall Street e-commerce "glee" isn't the fault of smart Sillicon Valley CEOs - it's the fault of simple American style presumptions & thinking.

    By 2025, will Apple/Amazon/Nokia be able to manufacture a $5 phone with a sufficiently large enough screen to persuade a still existing 2 billion+ poor folks to finally make online purchases? Maybe yes ... but I wonder: What will they be able to afford?

    Bazooooka, this is the problem with the Walmart/big box store critics. Alot of good, smart Wall Street/Silicon Valley types are too easily awed by e-commerce.

    Back here in the United States, do you really think that a future Whole Foods (or other organic stores) will have a dearth of customers preferring to look at and feel their vegetables before buying? These same "look/touch" buying habits apply particularly to economically emerging populations in Central and South America, Africa, India and ... well ... everywhere. And yes even for those folks lucky to save up enough for their first LCD TV - they're gonna want to shop at a physical store, then physically examine it, then select it and pay for it, then proudly carry the new TV with them in the borrowed car back home. (My intent is respectful ; I lived in Brazil twice and feel deeply for the world's improverished folks.)

    In other words, an expanding, worldwide Amazon.com has some serious cultural suspicions to overcome before the good folks in emerging economies are going to want to purchase stuff from such a "fancy" Amercian website. The world's 2 or 3 or 4 billion poor can't and shouldn't be factored into Amazon's stock price and Mr Bezio's realistic planning ... but ... ahem ... is it already?

    It's been a long 15 years since the internet "revolution." Why do people here in the USA still frequent shopping malls? Answer: To get out of the house. Fifteen years from now, will some people still want to get out of the house to do some shopping? Answer: Yes. Remember all those grocery delivery websites back in the 90's with sky high stock valuations? Me neither.

    Everyone said television would be the death of Hollywood but it adapted and old fashioned big box stores like Walmart and Whole Foods will adapt as well.

    Maybe Amazon.com and other mostly American/some Chinese/some European e-commerce websites will eventually change entrenched buying preferences of the world's poor ... in a couple of generations. Until then, I'm still suspicious of Amazon's high stock price. Yes, I know their revenues keep growing - but the age old Seeking Alpha discussion: Is it really, truly sustainable?

    Just my two cents.

    Hope you keep your excellent articles a comin'. I read them all.
    Feb 24 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine Salvages Sunken Silver: What You Need To Know [View article]
    I'm certain the company founders are real nice people and I'm certain you investors are real nice people. At the risk of being impolite, I think ya'll are crazy. If you want risk and potential quick profits, why not provide micro-loans to legal small alluvial placer gold and/or diamond mines on dry land in Africa? At the end of the salvage operation, my opinion is a high chance of a small (or larger?) net loss.

    Wish everyone sincere best of luck. If there is a BBC/Discovery episode, I'll eagerly watch it.
    Feb 24 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pullback Memo [View article]
    Peculiar rant. So your analysis is the market has rallied particularly well during four specific months during the four years of the Great Recession and forever it shall be. Hmmm ...

    Newer investors who read your article should be warned about worshipping casual market seasonality. Such blind investing simply exposes positions to normal healthy pullbacks. Of course, it's your money; spend it how you choose.

    A few months ago I ranted against gold hoarding, but at least I provided logical reasons, not 'gut feelings'. Tuesday evening I commented on this upcoming sell off and I shorted well. Yesterday just before the close, I hoarded BAC. But before the end of today's session, I'll position myself for the Italian elections on Monday. That's simple strategic trading. Good luck on your buy & hold. Cheers
    Feb 22 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: The Broken Record Correction Prediction Plays On For Stocks [View article]
    Thank you Mr MB, always greatly appreciate your opinions.

    Agree that the S&P (and the Dow & Russell) are seriously overbought. Are Monday's Italian elections even remotely on this market's radar?

    No short positions just yet ... but will purchase shortly.
    Feb 19 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: I've Seen This Movie Before [View article]
    A polite and refined article. If the broader market has a healthly 2% - 5% correction in a couple of weeks, wouldn't shorting NFLX be better than shorting SPY or IWM? I'm considering it ...
    Feb 13 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Tumble Down? [View article]
    Good article, yep, I agree with you.
    Feb 10 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Developments In China Explain The End Of Gold's Rise [View article]
    There is a LOT of unmined gold remaining. $5000 gold enables profitable dredging on almost every river & stream on the planet. Don't believe me? Then finance your own study. Worldwide, placer mining is mostly unregulated and even strict jurisdictions like California would reluctantly allow alluvial gold extraction at $5000 an ounce; the taxes and boost to the local economy would simply be too tempting.

    At $10,000+ gold can be extracted from water in the Bering Sea. Doubt that the state of Alaska and the EPA would allow it? Nevermind, the Russians would gleefully start from their side. And $10,000 gold enables the South African miners to finally finance mega huge open pit mines to extract the 500 million (!) remaining ounces there. Ditto Olympic Dam in Australia.

    There's massive amounts if natural gas in the world and when all else fails, everyone can go hack to uranium and thorium; no shortage of those two elements. I don't see energy induced inflation, which is far more important than the short term whims of stimulative central bankers. But to each their own. Should the vague 'Black Swan' event professied by so many a fearful Goldbug ever come true, I'll simply invest in my own startup to help increase AU supply and sell out before the price crash occurs. Capitalism is specifically and painfully effective in gold mining.
    Jan 31 05:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Turns 20 [View article]
    Articles like this is why I enjoy Seeking Alpha so much. Thanks!
    Jan 30 04:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks [View article]
    Thanks for posting this excellent article. Great info. Folks, modeling natural gas prices is tough! Powerburn, I hope you continue to post your thoughts regarding future Natty price wanderings. Cheers
    Jan 30 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
33 Likes