dmk42

Was July 15th the Bear Market Low?

This is a misapplication of the ECRI tools. On average, the stock market predicts an economic recovery six months ahead. However, on page 142 of ECRI's book, "Beating the Business Cycle," they say that their Weekly Leading Index predicts a recovery three months ahead, so on average, the stock market will know before ECRI does. It's just that the stock market is more apt to give false signals.

Where ECRI shines is on downswings, where the Weekly Leading Index predicts ten months ahead on average.