dmk42

Was July 15th the Bear Market Low?

I wish I knew. The only thing that's apparent is that ECRI does not claim the WLI turns up fast enough to predict the stock market.

An example of this is that the WLI growth rate had a local minimum in October, 2002, at the same time as the stock market. In this cycle, it was even uncharacteristically late predicting the economic downturn. It entered recession territory in December, 2007, two months after stocks peaked. That could be random or it could be that this particular recession is structurally inclined to cause the inputs to the WLI to lag.