dmk42

Was July 15th the Bear Market Low?

I wish I knew. The only thing that's apparent is that ECRI does not claim the WLI turns up fast enough to predict the stock market.

An example of this is that the WLI growth rate had a local minimum in October, 2002, at the same time as the stock market. In this cycle, it was even uncharacteristically late predicting the economic downturn. It entered recession territory in December, 2007, two months after stocks peaked. That could be random or it could be that this particular recession is structurally inclined to cause the inputs to the WLI to lag.

Was July 15th the Bear Market Low?

This is a misapplication of the ECRI tools. On average, the stock market predicts an economic recovery six months ahead. However, on page 142 of ECRI's book, "Beating the Business Cycle," they say that their Weekly Leading Index predicts a recovery three months ahead, so on average, the stock market will know before ECRI does. It's just that the stock market is more apt to give false signals.

Where ECRI shines is on downswings, where the Weekly Leading Index predicts ten months ahead on average.