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Trader14

Trader14
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  • China's February services PMI slides to 48.4 from 52.9 previously, reports the CFLP, attributing the fall to the business lull following January's Spring Festival holidays. The sub-index of new orders fell to 46.1 from 48.5.  [View news story]
    I understand I thought your post was fine just that the postscript was unnecessary especially with the rather amazing outperformance of the longer bond versus the short term bond over a time when stock market kept pushing higher. Interesting times for sure.
    Mar 4, 2012. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's February services PMI slides to 48.4 from 52.9 previously, reports the CFLP, attributing the fall to the business lull following January's Spring Festival holidays. The sub-index of new orders fell to 46.1 from 48.5.  [View news story]
    Short term treasuries are up less then 1% over past year, It's the long bond that's up almost 30%, which was his point, maybe check your data before adding your next post script.
    Mar 4, 2012. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow's 2012 performance through Feb. 16 ranks as the 16th best start ever for the index, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. Should the pattern follow the average of the 15 better beginnings, a decent amount of upside remains this year, with a short-term top around 13,750 due in March.  [View news story]
    Wall street never gets tired of these comparisons. It would make just as much sense to compare the average for the year after the 17-31st ranked starts. Now I don't have that data but I would guess it paints a less bullish picture,
    Feb 24, 2012. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Message And Revisiting The Winter Resolution [View article]
    Michael,

    Ok, another short article which I have now read and reread 5 times as I try to grasp the message you are attempting to deliver. Please help me grasp your point.

    First, of course it's time to write about the Summer Crash, and the Fall Melt-Up. I like your consistency, stick with the clever names keep repeating them and people will forget that your timing wasn't so perfect.

    From there it starts to get much more confusing.
    You write,
    "with many calling a "top" in equities. I don't see it just yet in ANY of the market internals I study, as the conditions are suggesting a continuation of the reflation theme and the idea that its still very early on."

    That is nice and straight forward, except your very next line reads,

    "Having said that, what has been a bit of a concern has been the very recent weakness in high beta small-cap stocks."

    Huh? From one sentence to the next you go from saying that you don't see any signs of a market top to pointing out weakness in small caps that "has been a bit of a concern".

    Hmm, ok well if I keep reading maybe you will clear up this confusion.

    "Should money move back into small-caps, I would argue we COULD be headed for higher highs with no near-term correction just yet as risk-sentiment continues to rise."

    Finally, my confusion has been relieved, the market "COULD move higher" Brilliant!

    I am sorry Michael this reads to me like more self-promotion that is very light on content and even lighter on its message.
    Feb 23, 2012. 03:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Real Estate Confirms 2012 Reflation [View article]
    That's funny I don't see you referencing any of your past analysis that didn't play out the way you "suggested" it might. I suppose reminding new readers of just the "hits" is better for business then mentioning any of the "misses". Remember it wasn't all that long ago you were still talking about the S&P testing the 09 lows again.
    http://bit.ly/AfjLFc
    Please don't worry, I am up to date on your prior writings. Since I am quite up to date I can confirm that you continue to write articles that make "suggestions" about future price movements that you continue to claim as "predictions" after the fact if they turn out correctly. I will continue to read your articles and comment on them as I see fit.
    Feb 21, 2012. 02:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Real Estate Confirms 2012 Reflation [View article]
    This is a classic Gayed piece. Start with a definitive title, in this case, "International Real Estate Confirms 2012 Reflation", then quickly mention previous calls that he has given clever names to. The clever name is an essential part of his strategy because people remember the clever name, while forgetting that his timing was not that timely, that his text didn't take nearly as strong a stand as his original headline did, or that his data was coincidental rather then leading. Now, after people have been reminded of past calls it's time to offer up the disclaimer words such as "seems", "may", and "suggest" so that in case the headline doesn't play out correctly he has an easy out. Remember he was just suggesting a possibility not actually predicting anything, that is of course unless what he was suggesting does happen, then he actually predicted it. (See Summer Crash, Fall Melt-Up......etc)

    After the article it's time to wait a few weeks and see what happens to equity prices. If they don't go the way he suggested with the headline and clever name, it's time to name the unpredictable variable that derailed his projection. If they do happen to go his way, it's add the clever name to his trophy case and mention it over and over in every article for the next 3 years. Perhaps his next article should be titled, "Heads I win,Tails I don't lose"
    Feb 21, 2012. 01:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With increasing talk that a gallon of gasoline could cost $5 for the first time this summer, at least two commodity pundits say it's more likely that prices will remain closer to $4. “To get to $5-a-gallon gasoline, you’d need a geopolitical event, like a war with Iran,” one says. With so much speculative money betting on higher prices, buyers may lose patience and bail out, easing prices, another says.  [View news story]
    "With so much speculative money betting on higher prices, buyers may lose patience and bail out, easing prices" are we talking about gas prices or equity prices?
    Feb 14, 2012. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu On Watch, And What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Have you guys ever taken a loss, I have never seen it admitted to in an article?
    Feb 9, 2012. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Where's The Volume (And Is That The Right Question)? [View article]
    If stock prices are going up that means there is more demand for stocks then there is supply of stocks is what he is saying.
    Feb 9, 2012. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "The simple fact is that consumers are consuming more than they're earning," says BoC Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, explaining the bank's concerns over rising indebtedness. His comments came in Q&A following a speech on an unrelated subject in Toronto.  [View news story]
    In the United States we celebrate that as a success story.
    Feb 7, 2012. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While there are still plenty of risks to an economic recovery, the start of 2012 is nothing like the 2008-2009 crisis, observes Goldman's Jim O'Neill. One third of the euro zone that’s supposedly falling apart is actually improving, and China appears close to a soft landing. "The evidence from all over the place is that it’s nothing like '08."  [View news story]
    I am curious why so many are so confident that multiples are about to snap back to the average since the 1920's. Multiples have contracted from levels that were far above that average over the past 15 years it seems very likely that multiples might still be contracting and have room to fall further before they move back towards the longer term average. Two crash events inside of a 10 year period seem like it could be more then enough for investors to shy away from stocks for more then just a couple of years leaving equities to trade at multiples below average for at least a few more years to come.
    Feb 2, 2012. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eurozone Crisis Is Slowly Fading Away [View article]
    They would be if he hadn't wanted to be short treasuries since beginning of last year. The everything getting better every day stuff is easier then that.
    Jan 26, 2012. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eurozone Crisis Is Slowly Fading Away [View article]
    CBP is truly amazing, he writes two paragraph articles with a graph or two that literally say the same thing over and over again. "Things are getting better" he writes every time. When they don't get better he just keeps repeating himself, and of course at some point things will get better.
    Jan 26, 2012. 07:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC): Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $13.9B (+22% Y/Y) beats by $0.2B. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    No one remembers that INTC had guided to 14.7 Billion on Revenue for Q4 just a few months back.
    Jan 19, 2012. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials, Bullish Sentiment, And The 2012 Winter Resolution [View article]
    Michael, these are some interesting results. Please let me know if I am reading these results correctly.

    It appears that there are 20 accounts referenced, falling into 3 risk categories, 1 account is "Conservative", 18 are "Moderate" and 1 is "Aggressive"

    Since 90% of your accounts fall in the "Moderate" portfolio, this would seem like the place to focus on your results. I am seeing a beta of nearly twice the market, negative alpha, and a negative real return that lags behind its hedge fund bench mark. Is this correct? It seems odd that you called the "Summer Crash" then nailed "The Fall Melt-Up" and then delivered a negative return??
    Jan 9, 2012. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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