EUR/USD, Bearish Storm Set To Continue? [View article]
Strong uptrend since August 2012. Need to keep in mind the unstoppable US printing press. The Fed can't wind down its holdings without crashing US stock markets. Euro can go to 1.5
I can't think of a reason any investor is putting money in the stocks besides Fed buying programs : funding the housing industry, funding the federal government, the consumer's income, retiree income, government salaries. At this level of dependency on money creation there is no possible way the nation's deficit can be reduced. The Fed is foolish for favoring the appreciation of paper assets versus putting value on work, industry, services, innovation.
Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
Eh, its still doing terribly. The point is the trend is down. The downward momentum creates new potential sellers who get out at the topside of the downward channel. Its not rocket science. So yes, short covering helps move the stock up quickly after a nice downmove, short term long traders take advantage of this move to make a quick buck buying and dumping, and then holders start to rejoice they can get out with less of a loss and exit. Just in time for the shorts to jump back on. Repeat all the way down.
Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
Morning short covering. AAPL has many bottoms, they get called at every new low.
The Most Compelling Reason To Buy Apple Right Now: The Dividend [View article]
If the dividend is going to stay so high, aim buy the stock at $200 later this year and you'll be super safe. Otherwise why risk it?
I'll buy AAPL when its super low, no brainer there. They can't mess up that bad over the long run. But for the short run, in this masked dismal economy, demand is drying up. We effectively have negative interest rates on cash, that's the only reason people have bought anything since 2007. Unfortunately, that's been the timing of the lifecycle of the iPhone.
Maybe $400 on friday. So many saying its time to get in, no real trader would touch this falling knife. It's wholly desperation, but it hasn't set in that they need to sell to protect against losses.
Apple (AAPL -2.3%) has tumbled below $500 following Nomura's big PT cut. Multi-Fineline's (MFLX -20.3%) warning also might not be going over well. Nomura backs up the WSJ and Nikkei's reports by stating its own checks indicate weaker-than-expected iPhone 5 sales; it now expects 48M sales in FQ1, and 39M in FQ2, but is raising its iPad forecasts. Echoing a recent CLSA note, Nomura thinks Android's Asian dominance has become a problem for Apple. Sterne Agee, meanwhile, believes all is well. [View news story]
Its amazing how a few simple traders are calling for the most basic of moves, trade a downtrending stock to the downside, against the backdrop of what now amounts to conspiracy theory. At first it was "Wall Street is wrong" now its "the media" "lying" about Apple. Yet the discussions from businesspeople and technology savvy investors who know what is up are dismissed out of hand, even in the face of a stock trajectory that 110% validates their claims.
I guess the selling will just accelerate, then, the big bandwagon of panic selling hasn't been hit yet.
Apple: 7 Reasons Shorts Can't Sleep At Night [View article]
"still in the early phases of an enterprise transition from Microsoft to Apple"
This is wishful thinking. No, even beyond that, it is pure fantasy. Apple simply does not provide, in any measure, the enterprise IT management tools that Microsoft has had as a cornerstone of the entire product line.
Even though Microsoft's solutions are slow and fraught with technical hurdles requiring engineers to push out to a corporation, the fact remains that Apple provides no such solutions.
Apple simply builds pricier tech that richer companies can afford as a perk to their employees. That's great but its not the lion's share. If anything, the ability to even use macs in the workplace highlights the transition to web services and web apps, where the multiplatform nature of the apps doesn't require a specific OS. In short, what is saved on leaving out the it management (small companies only) gets spent on nicer aluminum laptop bodies and a few web service subscriptions.
If anything, the trend is towards Google. Meanwhile, Microsoft is pushing out tablets which will be the replacement for the office laptop and desktop - those won't be replaced with an iPad, because those on the existing infrastructure still need microsoft, and those who want to use web apps can do it for 50% the cost on a microsoft tablet.
Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
Anyone reading all these 1-comment posters in support of Apple should take note of the level of bullish desperation.
Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
"Despite the popularity of cheap smartphones, this will never be the future of Apple’s (AAPL -0.1%) products," says SVP Phil Schiller in an interview with a Chinese paper. He adds that in "every product that Apple creates, we consider using only the best technology available." The remarks throw cold water on reports of a cheaper iPhone featuring less costly materials, and particularly on a Bloomberg report that Apple is considering retail prices of just $99-$149 for the device. Update: The interview's text has been significantly revised. [View news story]
Not true, Apple does occasionally make cheaper products, and they are poorly received, now they are forced to produce them to stay afloat against Android and Nokia, Amazon and Google, Sony and Samsung. They have no choice, losing market share, losing users who are flocking to other, richer "ecosystems".
Apple has bucked the trend for a long time by holding price premiums of 2x on products that are only slightly better. That means for every advancement the competition makes Apple loses big time.
The Network Effect: Why Apple's iOS Will Win The Platform War Over Google's Android [View article]
How does the future look bright exactly? A downtrending stock and past-peak company does not have a "bright" future. If you really look at Apple's software the quality has declined and a big shift has taken place internally. Pressure from above to push features at all costs, forced upgrades in lieu of innovation - Apple used to make good products and the best is behind them. They are jumping on bandwagons and copying from competitors, while suing others on IP. Contradictory, full of hypocrisy, subscribing to software engineering paradigms that alienate customers little by little. They've had enough and are moving on. Young people have decided: Android has advantages over iPhone. Every year that passes their incomes and % of the wealth increases and more will be going with Android. The funny thing is that Apple's best product is really the mac, and yet they can't sell those either without making weaker and more chinsy models.
Their business model just doesn't work. Its too bad, because I like their products.
Well stated, Karl! Finally someone paints an accurate picture of what's going on with Apple and its stock. Anyone who disagrees (as per the irate comments above) is clearly an angry Apple bag-holder. The stock has been in a long term downtrend with several lucrative put plays that have presented themselves so far. There is an oversupply of sellers as the inevitable cascade of stop-loss selling continues.
Further measures to reduce the deficit are necessary for the U.S. to hold onto its AAA rating, Moody's senior credit officer Steven Hess tells the WSJ. He expects said measures will soon be forthcoming, and Moody's will await the outcome of those negotiations before any rating change. [View news story]
Our debt is no good. Americans don't even pay back money they agreed to on their homes and at stores. Do you really think the 99% who have nothing, and who the government has put a 50k+ per person debt burden on are ever going to pay? No, they will simply vote for more idiots who will raise the debt to hundreds and hundreds of trillions and probably take down the entire world economy when it collapses.
House Approves Fiscal Cliff Bill: How The Deal Affects Income Investors [View article]
Its more taxes and more spending. Economic strangulation. Did anyone notice the "deal" in fact added to the deficit? 30 billion in more unemployment payouts and a fictional "600 billion over 10 years" in taxes, which will A.) be lower in the first years and B.) be largely avoided due to behavioral shifts. Revenue might not even increase by 30 billion in 2013.
Now lets play this out. Since we know spending cuts are fiction, that 30 billion unemployment extension is essentially permanent. In 10 years, it will be closer to 50 billion with basic price inflation as it is.
So in the short run, its deficit increase or at very best, cut by a few billion dollars, against a 1.4 "reported" deficit, near 17 trillion debt, and unfunded liabilities that dwarf both numbers.
And for the most part, the tax hits the lower middle class the hardest due to the payroll tax. That is real money to that group that pays for food and barely pays rent. You can forget about the extra gadget purchase for that group! And yet they barely tack on a few percent to those who already have everything 99% of Americans dream of.
All without lowering the deficit. They don't care about the deficit. They think the only way to handle it is to magically grow the economy, so they think they should spend more, but they can't tax enough, so they will raise the debt ceiling and borrow more.
It will never correct itself, it can only go parabolic and crash onto the rocks when ALL investment pulls out of Greece, I mean, the US.
EUR/USD, Bearish Storm Set To Continue? [View article]
Market recap: Stocks advanced following talk of additional central bank stimulus from Japan, positive economic reports (I, II) and potential progress over the debt ceiling. Most S&P sectors gained, but banks lagged after BofA and Citigroup issued disappointing quarterly reports (I, II). Crude oil rose 1.3% to four-month highs amid the hostage crisis at an Algerian oil field. [View news story]
Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
The Most Compelling Reason To Buy Apple Right Now: The Dividend [View article]
I'll buy AAPL when its super low, no brainer there. They can't mess up that bad over the long run. But for the short run, in this masked dismal economy, demand is drying up. We effectively have negative interest rates on cash, that's the only reason people have bought anything since 2007. Unfortunately, that's been the timing of the lifecycle of the iPhone.
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Apple (AAPL -2.3%) has tumbled below $500 following Nomura's big PT cut. Multi-Fineline's (MFLX -20.3%) warning also might not be going over well. Nomura backs up the WSJ and Nikkei's reports by stating its own checks indicate weaker-than-expected iPhone 5 sales; it now expects 48M sales in FQ1, and 39M in FQ2, but is raising its iPad forecasts. Echoing a recent CLSA note, Nomura thinks Android's Asian dominance has become a problem for Apple. Sterne Agee, meanwhile, believes all is well. [View news story]
I guess the selling will just accelerate, then, the big bandwagon of panic selling hasn't been hit yet.
Apple: 7 Reasons Shorts Can't Sleep At Night [View article]
This is wishful thinking. No, even beyond that, it is pure fantasy. Apple simply does not provide, in any measure, the enterprise IT management tools that Microsoft has had as a cornerstone of the entire product line.
Even though Microsoft's solutions are slow and fraught with technical hurdles requiring engineers to push out to a corporation, the fact remains that Apple provides no such solutions.
Apple simply builds pricier tech that richer companies can afford as a perk to their employees. That's great but its not the lion's share. If anything, the ability to even use macs in the workplace highlights the transition to web services and web apps, where the multiplatform nature of the apps doesn't require a specific OS. In short, what is saved on leaving out the it management (small companies only) gets spent on nicer aluminum laptop bodies and a few web service subscriptions.
If anything, the trend is towards Google. Meanwhile, Microsoft is pushing out tablets which will be the replacement for the office laptop and desktop - those won't be replaced with an iPad, because those on the existing infrastructure still need microsoft, and those who want to use web apps can do it for 50% the cost on a microsoft tablet.
Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
"Despite the popularity of cheap smartphones, this will never be the future of Apple’s (AAPL -0.1%) products," says SVP Phil Schiller in an interview with a Chinese paper. He adds that in "every product that Apple creates, we consider using only the best technology available." The remarks throw cold water on reports of a cheaper iPhone featuring less costly materials, and particularly on a Bloomberg report that Apple is considering retail prices of just $99-$149 for the device. Update: The interview's text has been significantly revised. [View news story]
Apple has bucked the trend for a long time by holding price premiums of 2x on products that are only slightly better. That means for every advancement the competition makes Apple loses big time.
The Network Effect: Why Apple's iOS Will Win The Platform War Over Google's Android [View article]
Their business model just doesn't work. Its too bad, because I like their products.
Apple's Slipping Grasp [View article]
Further measures to reduce the deficit are necessary for the U.S. to hold onto its AAA rating, Moody's senior credit officer Steven Hess tells the WSJ. He expects said measures will soon be forthcoming, and Moody's will await the outcome of those negotiations before any rating change. [View news story]
House Approves Fiscal Cliff Bill: How The Deal Affects Income Investors [View article]
Now lets play this out. Since we know spending cuts are fiction, that 30 billion unemployment extension is essentially permanent. In 10 years, it will be closer to 50 billion with basic price inflation as it is.
So in the short run, its deficit increase or at very best, cut by a few billion dollars, against a 1.4 "reported" deficit, near 17 trillion debt, and unfunded liabilities that dwarf both numbers.
And for the most part, the tax hits the lower middle class the hardest due to the payroll tax. That is real money to that group that pays for food and barely pays rent. You can forget about the extra gadget purchase for that group! And yet they barely tack on a few percent to those who already have everything 99% of Americans dream of.
All without lowering the deficit. They don't care about the deficit. They think the only way to handle it is to magically grow the economy, so they think they should spend more, but they can't tax enough, so they will raise the debt ceiling and borrow more.
It will never correct itself, it can only go parabolic and crash onto the rocks when ALL investment pulls out of Greece, I mean, the US.