socrateaz

Drooping Vietnam Dong Devalued

Hmmm

Expect Third Quarter GDP to Be Revised Downward

I do agree stocks and commodities seem to be the place where default money might go. It is hard to tell where the GDP might be. I think a reduction within the US is very likely! Why? My assumption is the GDP will be eaten up by tax increases. That will cause more failures or the need for more monies to be loaned to keep companies afloat. Domestic production will tank causing the need to both lower domestic consumption, and increase importation. That should cause the dollar to fall even more rapidly. Then fewer folk can afford goods. That becomes a lower standard of living. Domestic production should pick up after a drastic drop in the dollar. The economy has been rolling down the mountain. I do not think it has hit the bottom or even it's steepest decline yet. The problem is the government is digging an abyss in front of the economy while trying to build a poorly engineered bridge to take the economy over the previously dug abyss. I see not enough supports trying to support too great of weight. Will it be a collapse? Or will the bridge hold up and take us to the other side? I know what I expect!

The Fed Backed Itself into a Corner

I do not blame the fed for the current situation. I blame policies. Legislative, Judicial, and Executive! The legislative put policies into place that could not be sustained but was decided as fair and reasonable. The Judicial has become overwhelmed by control and redistribute idiots who think many of the worlds problems are from the greed of the producers but not the greed of lawyers and the have nots. The suckout and protect your wealth club is alive and well. The Executive leadership often worried more about their popularity than doing what needs to be done. The reasoning is those type actions worked before! Denial may exist until so much wealth is destroyed, one hundred years may be required to recover.

Charting a Double Dip

I think the first stimulus was more a reward your friends program than a reasonably fair balanced infusion of capital. Abd over the long term I think any stimulus will cause even more long term harn than short term good. As long as the reason for the downturn is believed to be something that happened recently without concidering the more distant past decisions that looked wonderful and were accepted as good decisions at the time then there will be problems. I say businesses and governments have the same problems. They start out fulfilling needs. As those needs are satisfied. More needs come up. Each subsequent need gives less return for their effort. Less bang for their buck. Next comes a period of supplying needs for less return.. Then a period of need supplying for negative return. that period would equate to about 1990 through now. Sooner or later the crisis period would come. For many people that period is now! For people, that becomes a period where they spend less and do without. For government that period will come too. Those in charge just do not realize it yet! They still believe income tax is not a piramid scheme and more wealth can be pulled from the producers to create more wealth! Taxes do not create wealth. They withdraw it. Today the status quo is keep withdrawing more. Fools in charge.will lead to even worse economic ills! I am basically utilitarian meaning ones value is in what one does within his life. I know socialists think because one exists, that person should be treated fairly ( gain all rights and privleges others have). So what is fair? Rewards based on someones efforts (wages and pay). Or all share and are treated as equals. History tells people the reality! When fairness becomes I should have what he has because I am, then all will begin to expect others to do for them. The near future will show you what happens! .

If U.S. Stopped Issuing Treasuries, Would It Go Broke?

You have summed up a good point. I think if the economy becomes flooded with money then the value one sees in that money becomes worth what it can purchase. Inflation should become the ultimate result meaning all need more monies just to exist. So more would need to be printed causing hyperinflation eventually. I do think putting some monies into the system each year is a good policy.if it is based on some reason. Maybe at the rate of inflation or a percentage of GDP. But indiscrimanant wealth added to the system will exhasperate already serious problems.

Small Businesses Going Under? Blame It on the Banks

All look for places to blame. Reasons what ever happens happens. If you are successful at whatever you do, then You take credit for your successes. All failures must be attributed to some blame. I understand that. I can think of about fifty reasons my business is in jeopardy. And if the trend remains next year, I will be out of business. If I needed to blame anyone for my predicament, If would be government policies. I knew my profession was going to have a serious shakeout this decade at the begining of the decade because too many tried to get into it. I just assumed I would be in a position to weather it. Multiple unfortunate situations caused me to need to borrow monies. The returns have not materialized. I have been quite frugal with my wealth all my life. One vacation a year! most excess wealth went into improving my net worth position. I was in a position most would envy! What happened? Mostly a situation where competitors were looking for a place to make money. they saw this business as a risky but well paying business. About 2000 a number of of signs my business was in trouble became evident. Many of my competitors made decisions that caused an extreme rampup in production because on paper, they saw dollars. Today, most are trying to figure out how to get out. What to do! Investments made are resulting in large losses. Ironically, my choices have put me at the brink. I feel like I am playing the roulettte wheel. If I hit my number ( I think I am due) I will survive and my business will go on. If I do not, I will have to start over. Ironically, I worked my way through college, not borrowing anything. The help I got from my parents was minimal (a old beater car and $40). I thought things were tough then! There were jobs that would pay enough to do that then. And I was wanted and needed by those that hired me. I just had no other life other than work and college. Today, I wish I could see a similar situation. I feel shakled to my situation with no choice. Everybody wants and expects me to pay everything. There is little money coming in! How I wish things were a simple as my college days where all I had to do was work and go to class! And I generally made the decisions. Today my situation makes my decision. All or nothing on double zero!

Obama's Fears of a Double Dip Recession Are Nonsense

I saw your story and thought this is going to be full of bad logic. As I read I also learned more of why I think the way I do. I think the Obama cronyism is more akin to mob cronyism than just plain (you support me and I will support you) thinking usually attributed to cronyism. I know you were just addressing one area of the economy. But there is a lot more to it than what you addressed. From what I read I wished you were president and not Obama. Sooner or later,people will need to realize they elected an ignorant partually brainwashed socialist policy believer. I just hope a reasonable economy exists when he is finished.

Baltic Dry Index Roars Back with 102.5% Gain in 39 Days

I have no doubt a global recovery will take place. Where I am sceptical is the US economy. The serious changes to the economy have taken place in the US. And I do not see them as good! The US stock market should partually go along for the ride with other really improved economies. I have been wrong about the market for some time. I do not believe it is in the real fundamentals. I could be wrong!

With Global Imbalances Returning What Are America and China to Do?

I disagree with your annalysis on the changes you believe will make unemployment higher. The initial unemployment by reducing government will result in later higher employment because the workers should go more into production rather than just sucking wealth from other places. I say any wealth going into government is no better than puting it into welfare without fraud! At least monies put in welfare goes back into the economy quickly. Government monies increasingly are going placeswhere the money is not being recirculated within the economy. Additionally the you are right the trade deficit is sucking monies from the citizens hands! Ironically, I think the belief things can return to recent past will keep us from a sustainable future.

Since When Does the 10-Year Yield Move Inversely to the S&P?

Most of the big moves in markets are because nobody believes it will happen. The less they believe something will happen the more likely that happening will cause a serious move. What do most people believe? There are a lot of beliefs. The one that bothers me most is: The US economy has always been a strong leader and will continue to be such even when taxed at a greater and greater level. But you could chose almost any belief within this administration and worry. See what they push. Then a good ultimate reaction would be to bet against it! Beliefs do not make reality they reveal reality! This administration is based on beliefs. Reality will be revealed!

Confusion Reigns About Banks' Minimum Capital Requirements

I think you do not understand the way our wonderful leaders think! Everybody are fools except the superior intellect of the brilliant omnipotent economy fixing people in power. If problems come it is the system not the extremely wonderful fixes they have implemented. The idiot Bush caused all these problems and it will take longer than they thought to fix it. Of course Bush did little in changing an already in place financial situation. But that is beside the point. Just the fact such wonderful understanding people are in power will create an economy all will envy. Just give it time! LOL LOL LOL.

U.S. Job Losses Demystified

I read have what you said. I agree totally. And it was said quite well. Many of the problems have been in place for many years. The fact those problems did not overwhelm the system seems to say those things are not responsible. Each individual problem will not as long as there is reward and adequate incentive to produce. Too many wealth withdrawing programs are now in place. The foundation is weakening. Following the current course without improving the actual foundation will cause a Collapse. I see no way to improve the foundation while building a greater top heavy structure. That is what happens when decisions are made based on beliefs rather than depending on reality.

The Real Reasons Behind Our 'Stupidity Economy'

I really like what you say. I agree to a very high degree. If you take what the liberals say and apply it to them, 90+% of the time you will be more accurate than they are. Does not matter what. I think they place their own problems as other peoples and of course their vast intelligence of about alligator thinking abillity has to be right. Keep writing. I will read your writing.

How Will Congress Pay for Policy Changes?

I really think the end of the world scenario of the Mayan calendar may correspond closely with a realization worldwide government expenditures are on a course to destroy the economy as we currently think of it! I think a serious reset might become necessary about that time! I do not mean tweaking things. I mean a serious change in the monetary system and policies which could mean near total destruction of accumulated wealth. Making all starting from scratch. I have no doubt most wealth will end up in a few hands very quickly. And the distribution of wealth will again be extreme. But the wealth will end up in the hands of the producers and not so much in the hands of the wealth redistributers. I believe in social redistribution but not to the degree or by using the methods pushed by most Socialists. I think fairness has to do with ones effort and reality. A social net for those who will not produce should be rewarded with a minimal healthcare and support level. If it costs society, and society gets little benefit then those people should have a lower level fo help than those who contribute. The current course really rewards doing nothing. That will not work forever.

Large Caps Outperform While Small Caps Stumble

My take is rational. Small Caps tend to fall more in a down market for various reasons I will not expound on now. When people start to see value in a down market, they often see the best value in those stocks that fell the most but had good fundamentals. So small caps indicate a bottom has been reached as people either buy them or refuse to sell more of them. As people move more toward large caps, you approach a market top because people no longer find value in the small caps and move toward what they consider safety of large caps! That pattern has repeated itself many times over the years. If the pattern is true we are approaching or maybe have already reached a market top. I guess the future will come