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nemesisjudge

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  • 3 Profitable Companies In China's Sewage Treatment Market [View article]
    You would need to compare it to other companies that have similar activities and all their business in China. These companies will also need to be a similar size and business concentration to reflect their undiversified business risks.

    For example, VE and GE will have totally different Weighted Average Costs of Capital.
    Nov 8, 2012. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Profitable Companies In China's Sewage Treatment Market [View article]
    On slide 17 for the VE presentation, it shows that for the whole of Asia Pacific only contributed 10.6% to total revenue.

    The 42.6% number you gave me was for all their water treatment revenue everywhere in the world. There is no break down of profitability for profits specifically from China, but it is also likely to be very small.

    For GE, according to their 2011 annual report, the whole of the pacific basin for all their business activities in every segment, accounted for only 16% of their total revenues, so water treatment for China must be a much smaller proportion of that.

    The point that I am making here is that water treatment in China is a small activity for both VE and GE relative to their other activities, therefore you cannot benchmark TRIT's valuation against these companies.
    Nov 8, 2012. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Profitable Companies In China's Sewage Treatment Market [View article]
    You have directly compared the valuation of TRIT with GE and VE, and on that basis set your TRIT price target.

    Can you tell us precisely what proportion of GE's and VE's profitability comes specifically from sewage treatment in China, compared to these companies' total group profitability?
    Nov 8, 2012. 06:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Techfaith: An Immensely Undervalued Stock Likely To Go Private [View article]
    Interesting that they have all this cash, and yet:

    In Sept 2010 when they already had approaching some US$200m of cash in the balance sheet by the year end, they announced they would issue a US$30m convertible bond to fund part of a jv to build a new factory, but then later changed their mind to change the structure of the deal. In 2009, they issued a US$10m Convertible bond at 8% interest, yet by the y/e 2009, they had US$130m in cash at the bank. Now why would they even need to consider these bond issues with all that cash?

    They wrote down over half of their inventories in 2011. Moreover, the company spent no cash at all to increase inventories during 2011, despite sales going up. A large chunk of their account receivables was also written down, wiping out a third of their profits for that year. Are these really signs of a thriving business?

    Their PPE remained unchanged for at least the last three years (except for construction in progress), and yet their revenues increased by some 50% over the same period up to end 2011. Incredible! And now revenues in the second quarter of this year have collapsed by some 60% compared to what they were in the same period one year ago. No one thinks that's strange?

    All this from just a simple quick look at their filings. I wonder what else I could find if I went in deeper.
    Nov 7, 2012. 10:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    I do agree that politics and religion are often not a good mix.

    Some of the nicest and most sincere people I have ever met come from the Philippines, so I do hope that the country finds a good way through its current economic problems.
    Oct 31, 2012. 06:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    Windsun33,

    The problem with stating that there are "Catholics" and "Catholics in name" only is that one can say exactly the same for the Philippines. One cannot argue that a country has widespread corruption and crime, and yet these same people then go home and seriously refuse to use contraceptives purely for religious reasons on advice of the church.

    If you want to point to extreme examples then I can point to as many extreme examples of various other sects/religions in other countries, but that does not represent the vast majority of their population.

    Also, if you want examples of proper Catholics, not just in name, then go to any Catholic church mass on Sunday in any modern Western economy. You will not see vast numbers of married couples take up the whole row in the church pew with all their children. Neither do you see them all queuing up at the bus stop afterwards to go home because they cannot afford a car.

    Trying to blame a religion as the primary cause for this country's poverty is both incorrect and misleads investors away from understanding the true causes of its economic problems. This is why I object to such statements.
    Oct 31, 2012. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    I am sure there are various names for people who ignore the facts and refuse to admit they are wrong.

    The statistics are true. Even without the statistics, these are well known Catholic countries, and it is well known that their population growths are not explosive, and it is well known they do not have widespread poverty like the Philippines.

    It is also well known that India and countries in Africa do not have major Catholic Church influences, but do have high populations growths and widespread poverty.

    Go nurse your ego, get out more and stop making unsubstantiated claims.
    Oct 30, 2012. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    Modernist,

    You have completely failed to understand or have conveniently chosen to ignore the point: the fact is that there are high growth populations and poverty in countries such as India, and countries in Africa, where the Catholic Church could not have been dominating influence. Therefore you cannot conclude the Catholic Church must be the primary cause of high population growth and poverty.

    Moreover, in many developed Western economies, there are huge numbers of Catholics, and they do not have explosive population growth and those economies are not poverty stricken third world countries. Here are some examples:

    Country (%Catholic)

    Austria (74%)
    Belgium (75%)
    Canada (43%)
    France (83%)
    Italy (88%)
    Luxembourg (87%)
    Spain (94%)
    Switzerland (42%)

    Are you saying that all these countries are experiencing explosive population growths and have deep widespread poverty like the Philippines?

    In fact, there are also many countries where there is high population growth and poverty, and some countries with high population growth and no poverty: in both cases the influence of the Catholic Church is negligible. Tony Petroski has shown this.

    You were the one who wanted to compare a country with the Catholic church-now you are moaning that I am comparing other countries to the Catholic Church to disprove your assertion. What does that say about the strength of your argument?

    The facts speak for themselves. It is just as easy to show no correlation with the Catholic Church as it is to show that there is correlation to the Catholic Church. Therefore it cannot be the primary cause. It must be other factors. Your statements contain no substance, and do not support your agenda, whatever that is.
    Oct 30, 2012. 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    I certainly agree there are places in the Philippines to avoid as a retired foreigner, such as Manila and of course anywhere in Mindanao. There are places in Cebu that seem like a good option, and maybe Tagaytay outside Manila, but I have not followed with the real estate prices there.

    I heard a lot of stories about foreigners investing in their own businesses in the Philippines and losing it all for various reasons. However the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans seem to do a much better job of being successful there, probably because they keep tighter control on management and the supply chain.

    Overall though, its a great place to live if you choose the right place and are sensible about how you manage your investments.
    Oct 30, 2012. 02:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    How ridiculous it is to blame some of the problems in the Philippines post WWII due to the influence of Catholicism. Perhaps you should travel to India or Africa where there are similar problems of too many children in a family then explain how Catholic Church influences were the primary cause of poverty and large families there as well.
    The fact is that large families occur in many poorly developed countries whether there is a Catholic Church influence or not. Moreover, there are plenty of Catholic families in modern Western societies where there are not large numbers of children.

    It is very clear that the primary root causes of economic problems in the Philippines are due to other factors.
    Oct 30, 2012. 02:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Listed China Space Wake-Up Call [View article]
    So you therefore agree profit margins still fall even though they strangely place massive amounts of cash in the form of Advanced Payments into the hands of third parties. They do not even earn interest on this money.

    The announcement contradicts what you and other people insisted on earlier, which was that production at the new facility would "fully" ramp up in three months. Now they are saying:

    "We expect meaningful revenue contribution from Huajie beginning in the second half of fiscal 2013". What!

    "meaningful revenue" in 6 - 8 months time is not the same as fully ramped up production in three months. I was heavily criticized earlier for suggesting that production at the new facility would not ramp up so quickly, but now I have been proved right. Worse still, we do not even know if this slower production growth assumes extra working capital funding from the warrant exercise.

    There are loads of other huge gaps between fantasy and reality. If the share price has gone up because so many people like you are getting it wrong in your fantasy, then it is you who needs the help. Like I said, this is going to be fun.
    Oct 26, 2012. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Going Cheap With Chinese Stocks [View article]
    In fact there are some companies that are doing very well because of consumer spending growth in China, and these include foreign companies where the data is more credible.

    Agreed, some sources of data may not be as accurate, but if that's all the market can go on, then that is what the market will follow. Moreover, many of the data risks have been known about for some while. As long as the Chinese banks keep lending, and roll over loans instead of calling them in, then I see the economy still moving forward, albeit with some differences on both a regional and a sector basis.

    On that basis, investments in China are probably better aimed at particular sectors or at ETF's which track stock exchanges where there is a higher growth company content.
    Oct 24, 2012. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Listed China Space Wake-Up Call [View article]
    LOL! For a company whose operating income declined nearly 10% last year when it was meant to be increasing profitability, and despite sales increasing some 6%, you better be sure that there are no losses tucked away in those massive advance payments.

    Really strange why they need even more money to fund working capital for the new facility when advance payments had already nearly doubled by some $50m last year to $107m. No, it did not help them improve profit margins.

    But go ahead, keep pumping the stock without properly reading the company filings and let someone else take the fall when you sell out.

    I can tell this is going to be a fun debate.
    Oct 24, 2012. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Listed China Space Wake-Up Call [View article]
    Your boasting is based on the short term trading performance since Oct 10th, a week and a half ago, therefore it is short term.

    Even the management of LPH considered that the warrants may have been too far out of the money to be exercised, and I find the sudden short term run up in this illiquid stock to a level where the warrants can now be exercised as highly unusual. Worse still, there is a misperception that the exercise of these warrants is not dilutive to shareholders.

    I am very sure that I have far more credibility in equity analysis than the authors of certain reports I have read on this company. I am not interested in taking a short or a long term position in this stock, but I intensely dislike an unbalanced bullish view that recklessly fails to mention some obvious things in the company filings. If you have not spotted them then I suggest that you take another look.
    Oct 23, 2012. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Percentage Of The 120M China EV Bike Owners Will Kandi Technologies Convert? [View article]
    The horse has not left the barn. More like you are putting the cart before the horse. Contractual relationships with local authorities and SOE's are very frequently unprofitable.

    Its time people stopped analyzing this like a Western company doing business in the West.
    Oct 21, 2012. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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