Seeking Alpha

manfredthree

manfredthree
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View manfredthree's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Level 3 +4.3% as Citi names it top telecom pick [View news story]
    We think ZAYO has a lot more leverage.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Alcoa Stand After A Very Difficult Year? [View article]
    You appear to have made that analysis oblivious to the rapidly dropping ingot inventory. The al price will be going up materially in the not too distant future.
    Also, when there develop any 'ingredient' supply chain glitches, China will experience true mayhem as mill managers frantically cannibalize their input systems to avoid being seen as the Communist Party 'fall guy'. When Chinese aluminum users sense any impending supply issues, the true mayhem of rising distributed stockpiles will emerge. The Communist system in fact only works when oversupplied inputs do not need to be closely managed. Very long AA, our vote for Chinese dis-location unlike any that can occur here.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors signs lithium deal with Bacanora [View news story]
    Elon will get several Academy Awards for this one. Best Actor, Creative (Smoke)Screen-Writing, and Costume Design.
    Sep 2, 2015. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Alcoa Stand After A Very Difficult Year? [View article]
    How sustainable is Chinese supply growth at subsidized prices ? Also, how much non-Chinese primary capacity will close over the next few years ?
    You do not want to miss the coming inflection point for the commodity price, especially since the rapidly decreasing inventory level indicates huge upside.
    Your article should really examine the China situation . We are happy holding for a couple years supported by only the downstream transition to support the $9 price.
    It is an investment in an extremely nimble and successful industrial management team. KK and Wm.O touch virtually nothing that has not been the result of a minimum 2-3 year development cycle. Also watch NOR, whose resource assets cannot be replaced for 5 times the entire NOR cap.
    Sep 2, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford August Sales Crush Expectations - It's Time To Buy [View article]
    We exited F and GM simply and solely because of the penchant for Feds to get it wrong. The USD is the world reserve currency, so raising rates to deal with non-existent domestic inflation is doubly certain to slam on the economic brakes. The misguided belief that equity stagnation hurts only the wealthy is Robin Hood peering into an empty quiver. The US can have the greatest consumer economy , but if it does not or cannot generate wealth, recession is shortly behind.
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors signs lithium deal with Bacanora [View news story]
    There is also the major curiosity (to us at least) of the approx 10% holding in ALB that emerged out of the Rockwood deal then disappeared off the radar. We have to assume that came under control of interests friendly to EM/Tesla , for the good reason that Li supply is the only Achilles that left TSLA open to a hostile pre-emptive attack by a major competitor. Such a holding prevents that effectively. Meanwhile, we're really happy with the ALB dividend that helps our vision in the middle of this smokescreen. Hang in.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors signs lithium deal with Bacanora [View news story]
    Randy, We see it this way... If TSLA does not do it, ALB will have buyers for long term lithium supply very readily. Fascinating that after the big-ticket Rockwood deal, ALB has never talked about lithium. Very strange indeed.
    Aug 31, 2015. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors signs lithium deal with Bacanora [View news story]
    Massive head fake. Time to smell the coffee at home..Rock with Rockwood.
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa At 52-Week Low: Time To Take A Look [View article]
    Yeah, China's a mess, but as Cuban alludes, if it is such a mess for all the AA's of the world, why is large cap tech immune ?
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa At 52-Week Low: Time To Take A Look [View article]
    If this does not frighten you, nothing will. Trillions of dollars in tech derivatives are running the market (though not the economy).http://cnb.cx/1fGa5O6
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa At 52-Week Low: Time To Take A Look [View article]
    We doubt that you are missing anything. Consider that $1000 invested today in mega cap basket AAPL, GOOG, FB, etc has to face the 'tech reality' that growth in BOTH sales and net margins over the next 5 years requires incomes and economic growth that are well beyond anything we are seeing today (essentially zero growth) . The AAPL argument is that penetration alone will do it. Fewer and fewer people believe this to be true, so doubling the current market cap of several trillions for the top dozen or so gets quite questionable regardless of our mutual love of the technology.

    AA is today a small cap (Market cap $10 billion). As SA writers attest to, many readers have become convinced that aluminum is going to zero and is taking AA with it. Given that AA itself is making good income, and that its margins on most of its business are increasing, not decreasing. And once the legacy mess of the LME disappears along with the aluminum inventory, prices will be rising.
    If you closely examine the institutional/fund holdings of AA you will quickly realize they are adding to their own holdings and will continue to do so.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa At 52-Week Low: Time To Take A Look [View article]
    Excellent summary.
    Could add that as AA is not a weak player due to its rapid diversification, the supply reductions will provide greater earnings leverage after the current rash of failures and curtailments has worked through. Also, that CFTC meddling will also help as LME inventories become much less relevant to price movement of commodity.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Don't Own It [View article]
    The bonus is that CFTC meddling with LME processes assures that once prices firm they will begin a slow ascent . That will take them higher, faster, and longer when supplies cannot respond meaningfully. Short term pain for permanent long term gain , as current below cost material draws more and more manufacturers to make very long term commitments to its use. But CFTC meddling will not assure the US avoids recession, so we are drawn to AA's focus on secular changes that expand its markets. Be patient.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CFTC chairman to meet with Alcoa CFO on LME warehouse reform [View news story]
    CFTC (that last C is for Commission) is primarily a politically governed and responsive organisation , so its interference with the LME is well understood. The good side is that the faster the price drops the faster supply will be curtailed. The negative side is that when a market is physically in more or less a balance, very slight demand pressures on the other side can lead to serious price spikes. CFTC meddling is purely short term, anti-market. Longer term AA bulls will love this since short term, cheap aluminum gets more manufacturers to commit to its use. Mid term, the price will inflect sooner. Long term, supply will remain permanently curtailed. Prices will go higher, sooner , longer than without CFTC. What a charade.
    Aug 26, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Just Can't Beat Falling Aluminum Prices [View article]
    That which is not sustainable will end. No bell will ring. Watch those institutional portfolios, they are telling you something. Unfortunately, 'long term investing' for retail , as well as many 'analysts', means a three day hold based on a freshly painted trend chart.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,556 Comments
4,311 Likes