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dharma_bear

dharma_bear
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  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Indeed there was the usual posturing by the ignorant - "the SEC should investigate", "conspiracy of shorts", blah blah blah. The key point, however, is that no one properly refuted the author's contention. The imbalance in the P1 populations was there for all to see, and once you took that into account the apparent signal from that trial could no longer be relied upon. Another lesson to draw from this is to look for such imbalances in early trials as part of your DD. And wonder what other pitfalls there are for the unwary.
    Apr 27, 2015. 01:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Weighted average is the wrong number to use. The correct number is the number of shares outstanding now, the 23.4 cited by Blair.

    Also, ATHX is an inapt comparison because they still have a viable product.

    Typically in this kind of situation the company trades at a discount to cash. We will see.
    Apr 27, 2015. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Good call indeed. Blair saved me some $$ - I exited some bullish option spreads last week based on this article.
    Apr 27, 2015. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Who do you think you are kidding? shares registered /= shares sold
    Apr 22, 2015. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Wait.. what?
    >Again, if these imbalances were such a big deal, CUPID-2 would not have earned multiple accolades from top-notch journals.

    A trial in progress is earning accolades from academic journals?

    >CUPID-1 had some heterogeneity issues, no doubt, because of its small sample size, but this issue was statistically controlled through the appropriate data transformations in the analysis.

    Exactly what data transformations can account for heart failure in the high dose group due to some reason other than ischemic heart disease, unlike the placebo ?
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Very wise and I agree. This article will not affect the actual outcome. If the longs are so sure of themselves they should welcome today's dip to add at lower prices. This attempt at shooting the bearer of the bad news says more about the shooters than the target.

    Personally I am very glad to have been made aware of this information and have the chance to adjust my option positions accordingly.
    Apr 22, 2015. 02:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genuine Parts: A Small Company With A Big Dividend Growth Story [View article]
    Was referring to p/s, price to sales ratio, rather than price.
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wonderful Copenhagen Beckons Cellceutix To Sing It's Story [View instapost]
    Why should CTIX deal away any piece of what they have got? They have adequate funding that matches their current modest burn rate with minimal dilution. No reason at this point to pursue anything. When they are ready to do a P2 of Kevetrin or a P3 of Brilacidin, no doubt they will compare various methods of additional financing to see which is best.
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genuine Parts: A Small Company With A Big Dividend Growth Story [View article]
    Interesting. LKQ p/s has not been this low since March '09. Chart has overhang but could be good entry here at ~24
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Communications Headed For Financial Disaster [View article]
    This is the most overdone and baseless bashing I have ever seen on SA.

    "With numerous debt liabilities to meet, management has insisted on raising its extravagant dividend yield". Uh-huh. From 10c to 10.5c. Of course, that doesn't stop the author of this hit piece from trying to have it both ways: "Furthermore, management has a history of cutting dividends "

    Then we have "Looking at free cash flow over the past 10 years, growth has been inconsistent at best, and has recently fallen off a cliff.", accompanied by a chart that shows consistently positive FCF. Free cash flow is what is left over after you have invested a portion of your cash flow wisely. As long as it is positive that is all that is needed. Growing FCF is merely a sign of a management that does not have an opportunity for useful investment.

    Next up: "Frontier's debt soared and continues to rise at an unsustainable rate." If it is unsustainable, why is FCF consistently positive?

    Apparently the author of this hit piece is attempting to salvage his ill timed put purchase. We all make mistakes. Some of us learn from them, others compound it by posting and embarrassing themselves with unfounded hatchet jobs.

    I am agnostic as to which way FTR is going to go. But as for useful analysis, this would not be it.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gee Mom, It's A New Global Momentum And Trend-Following Fund Of Funds [View article]
    Some degree of curve fitting is simply unavoidable. The best way to mitigate it is to confirm performance using out-of-sample data. This is why I prefer building systems to trade equities as there is plenty of data to play with. Although it is more work it seems to me using individual equities provides the opportunity for considerable improvement over ETFs - select the best stocks in the sector based on momentum & value considerations once you have identified the sector, rather than taking whatever the ETF provides.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gee Mom, It's A New Global Momentum And Trend-Following Fund Of Funds [View article]
    The way I have always seen walk-forward testing used is with a re-optimization of parameters at every step. Backtesting is a way to optimize your parameters. Walk-forward testing is for optimizing your method of optimization - which parameters to use, look back period etc.

    It seems to me that using walk-forward as simply a way to increase the amount of data you have got would be illusory as typically there is a lot of overlap from one step to the next.

    Maybe I am missing something here. Has this method actually been useful to you?
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Evolution Of Optimal Lookback Horizon [View article]
    Very informative. Thanks for this.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could A Dividend Cut Be Looming For Mattel? [View article]
    That invalidates your analysis. You have to either use q4 of 2013 or estimate q4 of 2014.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Minerva Neurosciences Presents Another Buying Opportunity [View article]
    There may be something to the insomnia treatment although they only tested a single dose in the P1b study.

    For people who understand what it takes to demonstrate a neuroprotective effect in Parkinson's, their PR earlier this month was a joke. The only thing they demonstrated was symptomatic relief, as far as could be determined from their sketchy report. This is a very challenging problem, which many are working very hard to solve. They did not do their reputation any favors with that one.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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