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dharma_bear

dharma_bear
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  • Synergy: This Popular Biotech Is Approaching A Major Clinical Event, Here's How To Trade It [View article]
    We will see indeed. Just for the record I am betting on an open in the high 5's to mid 6's after the announcement, in the event of a successful trial. May the best algo win!
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy: This Popular Biotech Is Approaching A Major Clinical Event, Here's How To Trade It [View article]
    As an outside observer it struck me as improper. A comment or two, ok, but an extended debate over ancient history is just something everyone else will have to scroll past.
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy: This Popular Biotech Is Approaching A Major Clinical Event, Here's How To Trade It [View article]
    In the P2 for CIC, 19% of patients were responders at the high dose, vs 11% for placebo, n=237, p<.01. Given the large size of the P2 trial and the strong statistical significance, it seems to me the market has discounted a similar P3 showing. Also, even though the result is stat sig, the low response rate seems problematic. Time will tell, but I do not think success will gap it up more than the cost of the straddle.

    P.S. I gave you a "like" for your prompt and pleasant response.
    Jun 8, 2015. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy: This Popular Biotech Is Approaching A Major Clinical Event, Here's How To Trade It [View article]
    If simply buying a straddle in front of biotech catalyst events such as this were a profitable strategy, it would mean that such straddles were systematically underpriced. The markets are not like this. Using options to play catalyst events is indeed the right approach. However, you need to do a lot more work than this to create a profitable strategy.
    Jun 8, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lipocine Gets Orphan Designation For Preterm Birth Drug [View article]
    Progesterone has been around for >50 years and is readily available from compounders, as you mention. It can already be ingested orally or applied topically or as a vaginal suppository. Is LPCN planning on attempting the same despicable practices as KV, trying to run the compounders' competition out of business? Or are they simply hoping to cash in from people who don't care as long as their insurance foots the bill? Why otherwise would someone not get the generic product?
    Jun 4, 2015. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Synergy CEO Just Telegraph Phase 3 Success For Plecanatide? [View instapost]
    CEOs are good at happy talk. This is interesting but would not place a bet based on it.
    Jun 2, 2015. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tax Advantaged 11.4% Yield From Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Preferred Stock [View article]
    Let's not ignore the risks here. Small biotechs go out of business all the time - if the development effort does not bear fruit, additional funding may not be forthcoming. If the company is debt free it may not need to declare bankruptcy, however, it can still end up on the OTCBB trading for pennies.

    In this case they have the contract manufacturing business essentially as security for the preferred. However, if they need to sell this business to secure funding, is there any prohibition against doing so in the preferred covenants?
    May 29, 2015. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tax Advantaged 11.4% Yield From Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Preferred Stock [View article]
    Generally speaking preferred stock dividends are treated as just that - dividends, for tax purposes. Why is this case different?

    That said, this is a very interesting opportunity.
    May 29, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Indeed there was the usual posturing by the ignorant - "the SEC should investigate", "conspiracy of shorts", blah blah blah. The key point, however, is that no one properly refuted the author's contention. The imbalance in the P1 populations was there for all to see, and once you took that into account the apparent signal from that trial could no longer be relied upon. Another lesson to draw from this is to look for such imbalances in early trials as part of your DD. And wonder what other pitfalls there are for the unwary.
    Apr 27, 2015. 01:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Weighted average is the wrong number to use. The correct number is the number of shares outstanding now, the 23.4 cited by Blair.

    Also, ATHX is an inapt comparison because they still have a viable product.

    Typically in this kind of situation the company trades at a discount to cash. We will see.
    Apr 27, 2015. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Good call indeed. Blair saved me some $$ - I exited some bullish option spreads last week based on this article.
    Apr 27, 2015. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Who do you think you are kidding? shares registered /= shares sold
    Apr 22, 2015. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Wait.. what?
    >Again, if these imbalances were such a big deal, CUPID-2 would not have earned multiple accolades from top-notch journals.

    A trial in progress is earning accolades from academic journals?

    >CUPID-1 had some heterogeneity issues, no doubt, because of its small sample size, but this issue was statistically controlled through the appropriate data transformations in the analysis.

    Exactly what data transformations can account for heart failure in the high dose group due to some reason other than ischemic heart disease, unlike the placebo ?
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Very wise and I agree. This article will not affect the actual outcome. If the longs are so sure of themselves they should welcome today's dip to add at lower prices. This attempt at shooting the bearer of the bad news says more about the shooters than the target.

    Personally I am very glad to have been made aware of this information and have the chance to adjust my option positions accordingly.
    Apr 22, 2015. 02:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genuine Parts: A Small Company With A Big Dividend Growth Story [View article]
    Was referring to p/s, price to sales ratio, rather than price.
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
304 Comments
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