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dharma_bear

dharma_bear
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  • Frontier Communications Headed For Financial Disaster [View article]
    This is the most overdone and baseless bashing I have ever seen on SA.

    "With numerous debt liabilities to meet, management has insisted on raising its extravagant dividend yield". Uh-huh. From 10c to 10.5c. Of course, that doesn't stop the author of this hit piece from trying to have it both ways: "Furthermore, management has a history of cutting dividends "

    Then we have "Looking at free cash flow over the past 10 years, growth has been inconsistent at best, and has recently fallen off a cliff.", accompanied by a chart that shows consistently positive FCF. Free cash flow is what is left over after you have invested a portion of your cash flow wisely. As long as it is positive that is all that is needed. Growing FCF is merely a sign of a management that does not have an opportunity for useful investment.

    Next up: "Frontier's debt soared and continues to rise at an unsustainable rate." If it is unsustainable, why is FCF consistently positive?

    Apparently the author of this hit piece is attempting to salvage his ill timed put purchase. We all make mistakes. Some of us learn from them, others compound it by posting and embarrassing themselves with unfounded hatchet jobs.

    I am agnostic as to which way FTR is going to go. But as for useful analysis, this would not be it.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gee Mom, It's A New Global Momentum And Trend-Following Fund Of Funds [View article]
    Some degree of curve fitting is simply unavoidable. The best way to mitigate it is to confirm performance using out-of-sample data. This is why I prefer building systems to trade equities as there is plenty of data to play with. Although it is more work it seems to me using individual equities provides the opportunity for considerable improvement over ETFs - select the best stocks in the sector based on momentum & value considerations once you have identified the sector, rather than taking whatever the ETF provides.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gee Mom, It's A New Global Momentum And Trend-Following Fund Of Funds [View article]
    The way I have always seen walk-forward testing used is with a re-optimization of parameters at every step. Backtesting is a way to optimize your parameters. Walk-forward testing is for optimizing your method of optimization - which parameters to use, look back period etc.

    It seems to me that using walk-forward as simply a way to increase the amount of data you have got would be illusory as typically there is a lot of overlap from one step to the next.

    Maybe I am missing something here. Has this method actually been useful to you?
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Evolution Of Optimal Lookback Horizon [View article]
    Very informative. Thanks for this.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could A Dividend Cut Be Looming For Mattel? [View article]
    That invalidates your analysis. You have to either use q4 of 2013 or estimate q4 of 2014.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Minerva Neurosciences Presents Another Buying Opportunity [View article]
    There may be something to the insomnia treatment although they only tested a single dose in the P1b study.

    For people who understand what it takes to demonstrate a neuroprotective effect in Parkinson's, their PR earlier this month was a joke. The only thing they demonstrated was symptomatic relief, as far as could be determined from their sketchy report. This is a very challenging problem, which many are working very hard to solve. They did not do their reputation any favors with that one.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Market Hedge Using Volatility Spreads [View instapost]
    Let us grant that this is a good trade based on history, the idea being to close the trade as of the end of December when the January contract is a month from expiration. The question is how big can the premium get for contracts one month from expiration? Not just January, but in general. Need to know this to properly evaluate risk.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More pain for solar stocks as oil falls below $48/barrel [View news story]
    Tax loss selling was a possibility in December but no longer a viable theory.
    Jan 7, 2015. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TransAct Technologies Is Printing Dividends - 5.77% Yield Offering 35% Upside [View article]
    Thanks for your work on this. TACT price was also pressured by end of year tax loss selling. With the arrival of the new year that is over.
    Jan 5, 2015. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Vringo Post En Banc [View article]
    SCOTUS can remand and return without granting cert. Unlikely they would revisit this subject so soon after Teva case.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alexco's Updated PEA Doesn't Impress Me [View article]
    In fairness, there is a bit of additional value not included in the PEA: "Importantly, approximately 15% or 143,000 tonnes of potentially mineable tonnes, primarily at Bellekeno and Flame & Moth, were not included in the PEA mine plan and remains to be considered in the event underlying costs and obligations are further optimized."

    As to silver pricing, how are other mines being valued by the market? Are the current prices sustainable or must they rise to supply consumption?
    Dec 25, 2014. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust: Stress-Testing At $50 Per Barrel [View article]
    Thanks for this. Very helpful. At least they are hedged, unlike many of the other royalty trusts.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Vringo Post En Banc [View article]
    The logical thing for SCOTUS to do would be to delay action on VRNG cert until after the Teva decision. Then, if favorable to VRNG, remand and return to the appellate level for review in accord with the Teva decision. No idea what the chances of that are - maybe someone with experience in these matters can weigh in.
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Loss Selling May Be A Large Factor In 2014 For Oil And Gas Trusts [View article]
    Of all the names you follow it appears that VOC has suffered the worst. Is there anything particular to VOC that has caused this or did it just happen to have more sellers? If the latter it would seem to be the best candidate for a bounce later.

    Thanks very much for your December stats. Good work.
    Dec 5, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell's Triferic Has Zero Clinical Relevance - Sell Ahead Of The Upcoming AdCom [View article]
    Thank you for your knowledgeable comments clarifying this matter.
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
290 Comments
192 Likes