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dharma_bear

dharma_bear
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  • Rockwell's Triferic Has Zero Clinical Relevance - Sell Ahead Of The Upcoming AdCom [View article]
    Thank you for your knowledgeable comments clarifying this matter.
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overpriced Expectations: Alcobra Will Get To Second Base, But No Home Run. Options Are Mispriced For An Unlikely Event [View article]
    Since metadoxine has no effect in the hyperactive-impulsive (HI) subgroup, I wonder why the company even allowed this subgroup into the trial. If approved, the label ought to exclude this subgroup anyway. Seems like they are diluting the efficacy signal to no good purpose.
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance: BDC Risk Profiles [View article]
    Buzz, I am a paying subscriber. The RH Analytics article gives detailed facts and figures supporting their analysis. Hiding non-accruing loans with PIK "payments" and then carrying them on the books at full value is a serious matter. If other BDCs are doing the same I definitely want to know about it. Saying "everybody does it" and blowing that article off with a "no comment" just will not do. Please pay more attention to this issue.
    Sep 19, 2014. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Baupost Group's New Position Suggests A Possible Takeout And 100%+ Gains [View article]
    This article was so thick with the hype as to be ludicrous. No question Klarman is a superior investor but you cannot take his best result and simply extrapolate that to every other one of his investments. As revealed in the comments, the author's $55B figure was simply hype. I got a lot out of the comments here. The article, not so much. No position.
    Sep 3, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunesis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Offers A Moderate Risk 80% Return On The Short Side [View article]
    Wedbush's target of $10 is for post-successful trial: "$10 price target. We arrive at our PT by applying a 6 multiple to estimated 2017 sales of Qinprezo, discounted back by 25%"

    I agree that an analysts' estimate in no way limits risk. Plenty of ways to structure option positions with limited risk instead of using stock.
    Aug 30, 2014. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunesis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Offers A Moderate Risk 80% Return On The Short Side [View article]
    This part is wrong:
    "companies with compelling late-stage results tend to push them out in a matter of days following the cessation of a trial, not weeks." It takes 6-8 weeks after the trigger event to analyze and report the data. Can you link to an example to the contrary?

    Also from the company's report on their P2 in progress for previously untreated AML: " 30 patients were evaluable for response; 13 patients (43%) achieved complete response (NYSE:CR), 6 patients (20%) achieved CR with incomplete platelet recovery (CRp), and 3 patients (10%) achieved CR with incomplete peripheral blood count recovery (CRi), for an overall response rate of 73%." Agreed that the current P3 will not be as good, but do you really want to be short if they report a >25% increase in OS? With the October straddle priced at >$6 this could easily gap up more than that.
    Aug 28, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finance Online: Shares Soar On Over-Hyped Deal, More Questions Than Answers [View article]
    The actual text of the PR: "launched China's first **independent** web-based securities trading platform". There are 117 stockbrokers in the country of China. Do any of these NOT have web-based trading platforms? What is "independent" supposed to mean?
    Aug 21, 2014. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Tactical Municipal Bond Strategies For Non-Qualified Retirement Portfolios [View article]
    Very nice work. It looks like this asset class is subject to periodic panic selling and a strategy could be built around that - pick the worst performer, buy when it stops making new lows and sell when it recovers. One would need to be careful to avoid macro shocks such as started in early June 2013.
    Jul 6, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynex Capital Pays Strong Dividend, Offers Positive Outlook For Second Half Of 2014 [View article]
    This report a waste of electrons.
    Jul 2, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update Of Uni-Pixel's Production Status [View article]
    Selling due to getting deleted from the Russell index will be going on next week. Interesting to see what price it takes for buyers to step up, but it won't be me. Thanks for the article.
    Jun 21, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Gold Discovery At San Miguel May Make Shorts Cover [View article]
    Based on the most recent 10-q they would have burned through all their cash by now, but for:
    "As of April 30, the Company sold 2,011,799 shares for gross proceeds of $2,113,585 pursuant to a Controlled Equity Offering Sales Agreement entered into with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. on April 11, 2014."
    which is not going to last very long. Looks like a hand to mouth existence. Do they have any plan for better financing?
    Jun 21, 2014. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial: Hail This High Yield [View article]
    Down 11% since your comment. That's 1 1/2 years' dividends. No guarantee it won't fall further. Not what you want for a high yielder. Lots of other opportunities.
    Jun 17, 2014. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy - Arbitrage Play With 10% Return In A Month [View article]
    This stock is scheduled for deletion from the Russell 2000. This event takes place at the end of the month which creates selling pressure. http://bit.ly/1klwq2h
    Jun 15, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Finance Corp: A Truly Undiscovered Gem With Significant Upside [View article]
    The ratio market cap/EBITDA is not a good measure because it inflates the denominator by excluding the interest on the debt, and deflates the numerator by failing to include the debt used to generate the EBITDA. The correct measure is EV/EBITDA, where EV = enterprise value = market cap+debt, or, alternatively, market cap/earnings, a.k.a. P/E. It would be great to see a revision of the article with the corrected measure.

    That said it does appear to be undervalued.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kona Grill, Inc. Lays Its Organic Growth And Expansion On The Table [View article]
    Is this their first expansion in recent history? Sales have been flat since late 2011. The price is up so much last 6 months it would seem to have discounted this expansion and more.
    Mar 26, 2014. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
277 Comments
181 Likes