The Unintelligible Investor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/499486/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1321721/comments?source=feed#comment-17262991 17262991
It looks like an interesting article and I look forward to reading it tonight, but within the first 3 paragraphs I was struck by this thought ... wouldn't the end of the deadliest, costliest conflict history has ever known help to improve investor sentiment somewhat???? Thus supporting equity markets even in the face of recession? A short-term recession related to decreased demand from the military industrial complex is an afterthought when investors once again have complete assurance of the ongoing survival of the free world.]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:16:44 -0400
It looks like an interesting article and I look forward to reading it tonight, but within the first 3 paragraphs I was struck by this thought ... wouldn't the end of the deadliest, costliest conflict history has ever known help to improve investor sentiment somewhat???? Thus supporting equity markets even in the face of recession? A short-term recession related to decreased demand from the military industrial complex is an afterthought when investors once again have complete assurance of the ongoing survival of the free world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1201191/comments?source=feed#comment-15478451 15478451
By extension, a P/E multiple of 16x or more again seems aggressive.

Also, did you account for the 2-3% drag of the share dilution?]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2013 11:47:52 -0500
By extension, a P/E multiple of 16x or more again seems aggressive.

Also, did you account for the 2-3% drag of the share dilution?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1173041/comments?source=feed#comment-14876451 14876451 Tue, 12 Feb 2013 07:43:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111541/comments?source=feed#comment-13723191 13723191 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 08:54:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1087231/comments?source=feed#comment-13302811 13302811
Question: You say "most" of their locations are rural. How much is "most"? Just how "rural" are they? The more rural the facility the lower the price it could fetch presumably. Can we be sure that the facilities owned by ALC are of as high quality in terms of location and other factors as the those other purchases you've referenced?]]> Fri, 04 Jan 2013 11:07:11 -0500
Question: You say "most" of their locations are rural. How much is "most"? Just how "rural" are they? The more rural the facility the lower the price it could fetch presumably. Can we be sure that the facilities owned by ALC are of as high quality in terms of location and other factors as the those other purchases you've referenced?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1040481/comments?source=feed#comment-12758461 12758461
I agree that Alberta is in the best shape now but the bloom may be off the wild rose and their economy has the further to to fall. ]]> Tue, 18 Dec 2012 23:06:33 -0500
I agree that Alberta is in the best shape now but the bloom may be off the wild rose and their economy has the further to to fall. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1040481/comments?source=feed#comment-12268791 12268791 Wed, 05 Dec 2012 08:56:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11418361 11418361 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 10:43:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11418271 11418271
The first few points you make there are all reasons why sales have slowed in the months following the CMHC changes.

As for Price-to-rent ratios: again, as I outlined, comparing these values across time is not a fair comparison because they do not account for declining interest rates. I bet if you were to look at Price-to-Net Operating income ratios, which incorporate interest payments, you would find that the current average does not deviate from the historical average by such a large degree.]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 10:42:47 -0500
The first few points you make there are all reasons why sales have slowed in the months following the CMHC changes.

As for Price-to-rent ratios: again, as I outlined, comparing these values across time is not a fair comparison because they do not account for declining interest rates. I bet if you were to look at Price-to-Net Operating income ratios, which incorporate interest payments, you would find that the current average does not deviate from the historical average by such a large degree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11417881 11417881 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 10:37:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11417751 11417751 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 10:35:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11417611 11417611 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 10:33:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11365511 11365511
Plus, the spiral in the US was compounded and magnified by the uncertainty over government backing of the banks. The US economy plunged because of fear of what was happening with the banks, not out of fear of what was happening with the housing market.]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 09:11:03 -0500
Plus, the spiral in the US was compounded and magnified by the uncertainty over government backing of the banks. The US economy plunged because of fear of what was happening with the banks, not out of fear of what was happening with the housing market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11331461 11331461
Granted, there might be a bit of panic selling to protect their equity, but there will also be alot that are comfortable with the shor-term decline.]]> Wed, 07 Nov 2012 13:12:38 -0500
Granted, there might be a bit of panic selling to protect their equity, but there will also be alot that are comfortable with the shor-term decline.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11330451 11330451 Wed, 07 Nov 2012 12:49:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11330341 11330341 Wed, 07 Nov 2012 12:47:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11299711 11299711
Also, what I am suggesting here is that Canadians are not as over-indebted as we might think. In this low-rate environment, they can fairly comfortably make their payments.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:36:50 -0500
Also, what I am suggesting here is that Canadians are not as over-indebted as we might think. In this low-rate environment, they can fairly comfortably make their payments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11299211 11299211 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:24:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11299161 11299161
The counter to your argument, however, is that, presumably, if we find ourselves in an increasing interest rate environment, it would be because 1) economic growth has reached potential 2) inflation has increased and needs to be contained.

In this scenario, it is likely that Canadians will have higher incomes, which will help them afford higher rates. ]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:23:16 -0500
The counter to your argument, however, is that, presumably, if we find ourselves in an increasing interest rate environment, it would be because 1) economic growth has reached potential 2) inflation has increased and needs to be contained.

In this scenario, it is likely that Canadians will have higher incomes, which will help them afford higher rates. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298941 11298941 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:18:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298921 11298921 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:17:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298831 11298831 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:15:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298811 11298811 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:15:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298791 11298791 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:14:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298681 11298681 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:13:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/980641/comments?source=feed#comment-11298601 11298601 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:11:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/875741/comments?source=feed#comment-10110401 10110401 Wed, 03 Oct 2012 09:04:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/289529/comments?source=feed#comment-2030124 2030124 Thu, 10 Nov 2011 11:40:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/290055/comments?source=feed#comment-1862590 1862590
there is the counterargument that the European banking crisis will be caused by GOVERNMENT's inability to repay, regardless of the strength of corporate profits.]]> Fri, 26 Aug 2011 11:07:05 -0400
there is the counterargument that the European banking crisis will be caused by GOVERNMENT's inability to repay, regardless of the strength of corporate profits.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/289529/comments?source=feed#comment-1860158 1860158
Annualizing SG&A for 2011 and applying it to 2012 is probably not a good approach, given that SG&A has increased steadily over the past 5 years. It has decreased as a % of sales, but on an absolute basis it has increased qutie substantially. And while they may turn cash flow positive sometime in mid-2012, in the meantime, they will generate no cash to fund their growth over that period. You are indicating they will have $40 mil in operating cash at the end of 2012, which may happen, but they need cash NOW in order to get to the end of 2012.

I also note from their investor presentation that by the end of 2012, they anticipate fully 15% to 20% of sales to come from the appliance for their new soda dispenser system. That would equal the % of sales derived from their water dispenser. Presumably, then, sales of consumables related to the soda dispenser would be near equal to sales of consumables from the water dispenser. So it appears that nearly all of their sales growth (some $90 mil in 2012) will come from this new product. so the soda dispenser would achieve in 1 year what the water dispenser achieved in 5+ years. Their entrenched and growing relationships with retailers will speed up the process, but this still strikes me as an aggressive estimate for a new product.

Then there is the part where Lowe's and Wal-Mart make up some 60% of PRMW's sales. Perhaps adding locations with other retailers will not be so easy.

Point is, while there is alot to like about this company, there are also plenty of questions that probably justify its current price.]]> Thu, 25 Aug 2011 13:31:41 -0400
Annualizing SG&A for 2011 and applying it to 2012 is probably not a good approach, given that SG&A has increased steadily over the past 5 years. It has decreased as a % of sales, but on an absolute basis it has increased qutie substantially. And while they may turn cash flow positive sometime in mid-2012, in the meantime, they will generate no cash to fund their growth over that period. You are indicating they will have $40 mil in operating cash at the end of 2012, which may happen, but they need cash NOW in order to get to the end of 2012.

I also note from their investor presentation that by the end of 2012, they anticipate fully 15% to 20% of sales to come from the appliance for their new soda dispenser system. That would equal the % of sales derived from their water dispenser. Presumably, then, sales of consumables related to the soda dispenser would be near equal to sales of consumables from the water dispenser. So it appears that nearly all of their sales growth (some $90 mil in 2012) will come from this new product. so the soda dispenser would achieve in 1 year what the water dispenser achieved in 5+ years. Their entrenched and growing relationships with retailers will speed up the process, but this still strikes me as an aggressive estimate for a new product.

Then there is the part where Lowe's and Wal-Mart make up some 60% of PRMW's sales. Perhaps adding locations with other retailers will not be so easy.

Point is, while there is alot to like about this company, there are also plenty of questions that probably justify its current price.]]>