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fbscout1

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  • The Housing Rebound And Why The Fed Should Begin Tightening [View article]
    How can it be a "national" market when the majoriyt of sales are cash buyers and sellers? That keeps Fanny Mae out and cross-state investors (REITS, ect.) are still in the minority in residential single family homes.

    RE is local. Nobody I know wants to move into California because of the astronomic pricing of all RE there (politics aside). That is why net migration out of California has been at record highs, particularly in the middle income bracket. It is too pricey and too risky compared to buying a home in Texas for cash and banking the balance.
    May 24, 2013. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Far Oversold No. 1 Bakken Oil Producer Continental Resources May Bounce Soon [View article]
    Good article but it overlooks two other fundamentals.

    Don't you think that the sell off in all Bakken producers is related to the reduction in rail capacity during this past month. It is difficult to move crude rail cars in a blizzard. This past quarter should see the impacts of winter weather on earnings.

    Also, considering Harold Hamm will likely have to split his majority stake with his soon to be ex-wife (Former Chief Legal Council Sue Ann), isn't the market pricing in some of the risk associated with that? Ordinarily, I wouldn't pay very much attention to the CEO chair but when the Hamm's own over 70% of the float directly, you have no choice but to pay attention. Even the hedge-funds are just along for the ride in CLR.
    Apr 23, 2013. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Utica Shale: High-Impact Solution Proposed To The Play's Toughest Problem [View article]
    My appologies. I thought you were discussing LNG liquifaction/terminal projects, not the petrochemical complex.
    Mar 15, 2013. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utica Shale: High-Impact Solution Proposed To The Play's Toughest Problem [View article]
    You need to trim back that number. Every project outside of the Gulf Coast has been killed or no chance for clearing regulatory hurdles. No Long Beach, Columbia River, ect. I have 7 bn on my count.
    Mar 14, 2013. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    Yes, it's called somewhere else. If I want to hear political rants, and I do not, you can go other places like RCP et. al. This is about investing which, in case you haven't noticed, the GOP knows very little. If they did, they wouldn't alienate the latino population in this country.

    This is about investing, not 1960's culture wars. Gripe somewhere else, troll!
    Jan 22, 2013. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
    "Their legal status is not and should not be the job of the contractor hiring them."

    So contractors get a free pass for hiring illegal immigrants?!? You complain about the lack of jobs but then stipulate that employers should not show preference for who is here legally and who is not. That's turning back the clock to the 1890's when workers were largely treated like chattle. The lack of strength in market price supports the Japanese disease. Reopening employment to illegals will do just that.

    The article does not address the lack of population growth in the NE and upper MW outside of ND. There is a huge amount of M3 destruction in those areas as house prices continue to fall as jobs and young people leave those areas for the South and Southwest. The UP of Michigan has lost at least 20% on home prices across the board and I don't believe that it will ever come back as Detroit and much of the "mitten" continues to lose jobs. Much of UP pricing was based on people in the "mitten" wanting vacation homes there.
    Jan 21, 2013. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy In 2013: Bankruptcy Risk Is Non-Existent [View article]
    So you are assuming that the anti-trust trial goes in CHK's and ECA's favor and they won't get walloped with a trebble damages fine from the gov't? This balance sheet can't handle a 1-2 billion dollar fine and the Obama administration has already shown a willingness to push companies into the brink. Also, CHK has admitted in the past they need to see Henry prices back at $5/MMbtu to be solvent again. Good luck with that!

    Personally, the common stock is worthless as it will be the bond holders, JV creditors and the preferred stock that will own the company after Aubrey is wearing the orange jumpsuit. You can believe the assets are actually there and not overstated (look at how fast the Hogshooter was announced, made me go hmmmm), then do what Icahn does, buy the preferred, NOT the common.
    Dec 31, 2012. 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Should Forget Iraq And Take Out Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    The issue is that the ethane has to be "cracked" to make ethylene, C2H4, which is the base chemistry for most plastics. There are no ethane crackers on the east coast and the natural gas and other suitable pipelines that are available ship from Henry Hub to the Northeast, not the other way around. The ethane can't be put into the natural gas as it will burn too hot (most gas furnaces use ~1010 btu, Marcellous C2 reject ~1140 btu my estimate). They can't take it out on rail cars as rail cars are pressure limited to 250 psig and an ethane product has a pressure of about 400-450 psig. Basically, without a pipeline or local cracker, those ethane molecules build up until you are overrun with ethane. A few companies have been using it as a fuel for their compressors.

    The issue with using it as fuel is if there were a new set of regulations that is pending from EPA for air emissions that could damper new fields coming on line. Existing gas compressors would be grandfathered but new compression would be required to meet the new regulations. There would be a reduction in capacity but an increase in the life of the reserve as companies cut back production due to having to use lower horsepower compressors. Switching to electric will simply build up the ethane inventory so it is not a solution. Shell is trying to get an ethane cracker built in KY but I don't know the status on it. Without the cracker, there is no viable way to get the ethane to market.

    Ethane is also very cheap. Every oil refinery has a lot of it and can make ethylene cheaply to sell to a petrochemical plant next door. The money made on NGL ethane is when the refinery goes down and there is no oversupply of ethane to make ethylene.
    Dec 26, 2012. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Should Forget Iraq And Take Out Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    Epic fail of an article.

    1) CHK no longer has any midstream business. Spun it off and now owned by 50% independent, 50% Williams. Dry gas is unprofitable and wet gas has to be processed which CHK no longer does in house.

    2) XOM got burned on XTO purchase but is good for a long term foothold in the Bakken. Can't say that about CHK and Eagle Ford or OK acreage as there are many other companies with FAR BETTER balance sheets to buy. Marcellous is dead weight due to high ethane issues in the wet areas and poor economics in the dry areas.

    3) CHK has JV's with CNOOC and Total and a miriad of others. XOM doesn't do JV's often, most of them are in foreign countries with the national oil or gas company.

    4) High overhead and massive layoffs are huge PR issues. CHK employs 3x the number of DVN or CLR but is of similar size.

    So I'm assuming your day job is a dancer/cheerleader for the OKC Thunder?
    Dec 21, 2012. 12:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Mac And Your Financial Health: Rising Burger Prices Show A Worrying Trend [View article]
    @ddearborn

    You do realize that is over 26 years, right, or are you trying to make an old-geezer-get-off-my-... joke.

    75 years ago, Coke was a nickel. Ah those were the days. Now get off my lawn.
    Dec 19, 2012. 09:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Weak Fundamentals, Poor Visibility [View article]
    Does anyone have any information on how the 18 - 30 crowd is viewing the newer parts of JCP v. M or DDS? I don't care for the over 50 crowd thinks (baby boomers) as they will not be decreasing their buying at JCP and other mall retailers over the next 20 years. Let them shop at WMT or TGT as they will be increasingly price sensitive and lower margin customers and not where JCP wants to be. Losing the youth customer in the 1990's did in SHLD's clothing which wasn't very strong to begin with. DDS is definately a baby boomer store that really doesn't cater to younger consumers and I expect them to falter as more and more of them retire. That leaves M with a huge market of youthful customers with growing levels disposable income.
    Nov 13, 2012. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurricanes Do Not Have A Silver Lining [View article]
    You forgot that a cholera epidemic would also lower unemployment as employers have to hire new employees that died during the epidemic. It also lowers the total number of people who are outside the workforce as cholera may strike those in poverty in higher numbers than those who are not. Who knew such a horrible disease is the secret to economic prosperity (sarcasm)?
    Oct 31, 2012. 11:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Natural Gas Industry Stifled By DOE Inaction [View article]
    The Oregon terminal is a non-starter. It has rampant opposition from locals, poor soil stability, and the Governor and Lt. Governor of Oregon opposed the terminal in the past. It has NO hub access and is entirely dependent on a new hub being developed at Malin or other location where the Ruby pipeline ties into the existing pipes running from Canada. 2 suppliers really don't make for much of a hub unlike the ports in Louisiana and Texas which have Henry backing them up.

    The only Alaska natural gas project on the drawing board I know of is for an LNG terminal to be built on the southern shore of Alaska. The pipeline to the lower 48 is DOA after Alaska wanted "unreasonable" (from COP) terms for the pipeline portion in Alaska.
    Oct 18, 2012. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Bakken Stocks Benefiting From The Rise In Bakken Spot Crude Prices [View article]
    Why not be a long term long on Bakken crude? This appears to focus on next year's potential not 5 years out once there is enough pipeline infrastructure to get the crude to market fully. Bakken is a light sweet crude so it should normally sell at a premium to WBI (well v. well). It is only the transportation and local refining market issues that cause such a large differential.

    Local numbers I have heard in ND are 60-70. I don't know where or how OAS is coming up with the 82.36 previously quoted. Maybe they are counting the revenue from NGL bbls in a well sumation and dividing by total production?
    Oct 10, 2012. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boone Pickens Is Looking For Natural Gas Prices To Reverse, We Agree [View article]
    This article also totally neglects the fact that you could have a contango situation in NG where gas in storage is at max capacity in January and the pipeline gas must be burned off to keep the system running. To say "prices rise" with record levels of gas in storage before a withdrawl season with maximum gas in storage really begins to remove all logic. IF the winter is bad (ie. warm), demand will not be sufficient enough to provide price support at even at current prices.

    The references the Persian Gulf being of importance to the US energy is also a red herring. The US energy slate is over 50% western hemisphere resources and has been since at least the mid-2000s if not earlier. Given that WTI price has already disconnected from Brent, Iran has actual political risk but little supply risk to the US. It isn't difficult for US refiners to replace Arab Medium with something else.
    Oct 9, 2012. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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