I started in the investment business in the 1960s checking quotes on a ticker tape machine before moving to the floor of the stock exchange where I became a floor trader. I became a stock broker/investment advisor/ in the mid-70s and later a portfolio manager for a small firm. After going through a huge boom and bust early in my career, I mistrusted the "buy and hold" approach and became paranoid about going through another crash. I started finding and using indicators that warned about bear markets on the horizon. I do believe it is possible to know when markets are safe and dangerous and act accordingly. I have missed every significant decline since the early 1980s including 1987 and 2008.