Scotfree

Five Criteria for Timing the Market Bottom

Minor point: I think you have reversed the legend on your S&P/HY chart.

More important: I have read a couple of your analyses, and I think they are very good--as is this one. It's hard to tell from the charts, but an interesting analysis would be how much of a bull market you give up by waiting for a confirmed bottom in the ISM or other indicators. It doesn't look like you lose much and would get a higher degree of safety. Even in
2001, you would have got most of the rally and hopefully been able to at least break even before the next downleg took you out.

Chart Fun With the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Great stuff--and frightening. The discussions I usually hear are that inflation is far worse than reported and that food and energy should not be discounted. These charts obliterate those arguments. Why is this scary? Because this suggests that deflation--a far worse scourge than inflation--is a real risk. Greenspan openly worried about deflation, and now Bernanke may silently share his concern.

Building a Long-Volatility ETF Portfolio

Fascinating. What is the left scale? Surely that is not tenths of a percentage point. And from the June low to the August peak (close) the VIX roughly doubled, which doesn't seem to be what this is showing.

The Great Fed Rate Cutting Myth: Look Out Below

You didn't go back far enough. At federalreserve.gov, click on monetary policy and check the table titled "Intended Federal Funds Rate." From July 95 to Jan 96, the Fed cut rates three times by a total of three-quarters of a point to 5.25. The cuts sustained one of the great bull markets in history. Current P/Es are more like 1995 than 2000. Whether we will remain recession-free, as in 1995 but not 2001, remains to be seen.

Are Retail Stocks Bargains?

Hmmm. So retail stocks "will outperform in a recession." This is slippery Wall Street talk for "retail stocks will fall less than other stocks in a recession." Not very comforting. The last recession was March 01 to November 01. The RTH dropped like a stone in that period.

Cramer On Market Manipulation: A Lesson For Investors

Good point about the "TV persona." I've been to Cramer presentations where he quite unabashedly makes the distinction with his alter ego. The guy is actually quite perceptive and smart but is consciously creating entertainment. It would be nice if, when Fox starts its own business channel, someone comes up with an old Louis Rukeyser approach to investment programming: calm and rational. On CNBC we get "Mad Money," "Fast Money," and minute-by-minute jumping up and down about every turn in the market. CNBC seems to think we are all day traders.

Investing in Cancer Treatment: Six Stock Ideas

Very useful piece. Thanks. Why do you single out Varian? There is some concern that Siemens et al are taking market share away from it.

Get Ready For $4/Gallon Gasoline

You guys do great stuff. On this one, I wonder what the charts would look like if you did the last five years MINUS 2005 (Katrina, et al).

China's Stock Mania: The End is Near

So the Chinese mania will end in tears? What's bold about that prediction? What would be bold is predicting when it will end. Alan Greenspan was right about "irrational exhuberance," but the markets sailed on for another two years. One thing you didn't factor in: The last thing the Chinese authorities want is a market crash on the eve of the 2008 Olympics.

Media Enables Distorted Investor Outlook

Please. Let's not blame the messenger because you disagree with what seems to be the conventional wisdom on inflation. First, all those highly-educated traders populating the trading desks around the world are perfectly capable of reaching their own conclusions on the government press releases. Second, the Fed has announced to the world that the "core" measure is what it is watching. If you've got a beef, take it up with the Fed.