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mgarrett's  Instablog

Mr. Matthew Garrett has been an independent market participant for the past 7 years starting at the age of 18. In this time he has consistently and accurately identified the major emerging macro trends. These talents gained him recognition from senior University staff and administration, Capital... More
  • Where we stand ahead of GDP
    there were some significant technical develops over the past couple weeks.  
     
    The highs put in earlier this month failed to break through the L-T trend resistance (RED LINE) from the highs of two years ago.  
     
    Implied volatility represented by the VIX index put in a new relative low last (this has happened during many relative tops in the market).   We also had the ISE Sentement Index register levels that has coincided with the previous market tops.    
    -Today we broke through the trend support (Green Line) from the march lows.
     
    -Over the past few days we have seen significant derisking in the credit and currency markets.
     
    -So over the past few weeks we have had severe technical deterioration,  which I am only presenting a sample of.  I want to put these specific incidences into some context.  Over this time period we had a major Hedge Fund (Galleon), liquidated and Capmark filing for bankruptcy. We are also down to the last round of the FED's treasury purchases and TLGP set to expire at he end of the month. The U.K. also had a disappointing GDP number which raises concern for a disappointing US GDP report.   Did the combination of these factors, both obvious and significant technical areas of resistance and adverse events (some which were known and some that came as a surpise) create the perfect storm for us to get what had been an illusive correction.  Or do these events represent too large of a hurdle for the market to overcome.  My view is that we will need to see a weak GDP ( below the 2.7- 3% est) print to give the FED cover to ratchet up support for the economy and market for this market to move higher in the coming months.  Tomorrow's GDP comes out at 8:30am EST. 
    Tags: SPY, TBT, TLT, GDP, FED, QE
    Oct 28 04:07 pm | Link | Comment!
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  • I will be looking at refiners here. VLO MRO. The adverse cracks and demand seem fully priced in. Vulnerability to bad tape looks low.
    Nov 01, 2009
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