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stary kozel

stary kozel
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  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Using effect of weighting index as you claim it, is wrong; look at the midcaps and tell us what you see; I see that over the last 15 years, midcaps gained 120% more then the S&P
    %
    Jul 5, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chinese bear keeps growling [View news story]
    WMX Do do Fibonacci progression, I use stuff at the Fidelity; easy option is here:
    http://bit.ly/1IWsmi2
    Jul 3, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chinese bear keeps growling [View news story]
    It is elementary: the mean forward looking P/E ratio of all the companies within the Shanghai index is something like 58; the same ratio for the S&P 500 is to be 18 a' 12 months hence; trailing S&P ratio is a' 20.5 right now. Looks like that "regulator" should Google this subject to educate self???? Nah! So it is pretty good bet that the drop will continue.

    I was short ASHR since June 19 and on June 26 I put big fat red target on $36/share. But sold last night to play it safe. If i knew last night about this "statement", i would stay short. Because this is NOT a solution.

    The risky business with ASHR (or also ASHS) is that their valuation is trailing the Shanghai close. Today it would open in the $40/share area, but if the Chinese would come up with something really constructive, the Monday open would hurt me. Even if it turns up, sooner or later the ASHR will be great short again. One has to watch the China GDP.

    I started watching and (going long) Shanghai (ASHR as vehicle) a' year ago, when I came to conclusion that the Chinese already became consumer-based economy.

    If somebody asks where i think the Index will bottom, i would say around 3100 = around 600 points more down.

    I like to use Fibonacci numbers, and in this case it works like dream so far. I believe that the Fib. reflects herd behavioral pattern that is imprinted in our genetic profile as result of the ability to survive (natural selection) over the millenia.

    Most of the Chinese traders are not very experienced and also they are much more emotional than the Caucasians. So they are much more prone to behaviorally reflect the Fib progression.

    And this is the way it is.
    Jul 3, 2015. 01:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere - Higher LNG Exports, Asian Growth, And Infrastructure Improvements Are Catalysts [View article]
    I keep making typos and do not proof-read; above, the "LBG" should be "LNG"
    also: Instead of "One these 3 vessels" should be "On these 3 vessels"...

    "fight' should be "right"...
    Jun 25, 2015. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere - Higher LNG Exports, Asian Growth, And Infrastructure Improvements Are Catalysts [View article]
    Cheniere's long contract customers will get the LBG under Free On Board (FOB) arrangement. Therefore any arrangement of LNG transport vessels will be customer's responsibility.
    But: the Spot Market contracts arranged by Chenier's Marketing teams will include seas transportation services, using three (leased) modern ships that are being built by Hyundai Heavy Industries. What is interesting on those vessels: their engines will run on Natural Gas. While LNG transport ships are sailing, some of the gas (Boil Off Gas = BOG) evaporates and is released to the atmosphere. One these 3 vessels, this gas is instead rerouted to power the ship engines.
    If I remember fight, such loss of gas can amount to $350,000 to $550,000 per 28 days trip.
    Natural gas is mixture of gases; the two that boil-off most, is Methane and Nitrogen. Methane, which is the main part of LNG, has a boiling point of -161.5°C. Only nitrogen has a lower boiling point (-196°C). LNG is 95% methane.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Pharmaceuticals: Small Vaccine Maker Worthy Of Consideration [View article]
    I sold our INO shares after the mediocre (less than 20% effective) results of the Phase II Cervical Lessions trials. In my mind it was failure.
    May 31, 2015. 08:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • X-Raying CEFL: Leverage And Expense Ratio Statistics [View article]
    At the bottom of my comments is:

    <<Ouch, the charts would not open here. You need to use the link below and enter the values - size (use the largest) 1 year, CEFL, and locate the "dividend adjust" in the lower portion and toggle it on/of.>>

    Chart: http://bit.ly/1HD6CfC - on my computer it simply points to the barchart I have open on differeent tab. Therefore the link defaults to a pointer. sorry about it.

    I do not know what to do about it; I went to different browser and it looks like one has to join the barchart.com (free of charge).

    Otherwise, i hope i made good enough description to make my point (even without the visual aid). I tried to paste images here, but it is not allowed here on the Seeking Alpha.
    Seeking Alpha is on the FaceBook, where I could publish the charts, but it will not permit (me) to publish anything; there is not option to join. I have my own investment newsletter for friends on the FaceBook, but I keep it limited to my friends only.
    May 24, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • X-Raying CEFL: Leverage And Expense Ratio Statistics [View article]
    I did owned five of the leveraged UBS ETNs. All are now sold. Instead I bough MLPL and LMLP.
    The reason for selling was the fact that the ETNs like CEFL (for example) are not providing decent gains.
    Take CEFL, for example:
    If you go on the Morningstar, there is chart showing that CEFL's NAV and trading price follow each very closely. Over the last 12 months, CEFL share price dropped 22.49% and it's NAV 22/81%
    OK; but CEFL pays dividend. Below are two links to 12 month graphs; one shows CEFL share pricing without the dividend, and the second with the effect of distributed dividend included.
    I should clarify this one - this second chart is made such way, that the dividend is subtracted in reverse in form of rolling average. Therefore, yesterday's closing price is the same in both charts - $22.42
    The difference is all the way on the left (actually, the May 22 2014 is the third candle from the left).
    The first chart shows the "real" trading close of $28.87, while the second chart with the dividend adjustment shows the May 22 2014 close at $24.71; reflecting the sum of dividends over the last 12 months.
    This 2nd chart provides one with a form of visual feedback = "Did I made some money or not?"
    IT IS NOT SHOWING THE EFFECT OF REINVESTING THE DIVIDEND! (I use DRIP method).
    Ouch, the charts would not open here. You need to use the link below and enter the values - size (use the largest) 1 year, CEFL, and locate the "dividend adjust" in the lower portion and toggle it on/of.

    Chart: http://bit.ly/1HD6CfC
    May 24, 2015. 10:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy, Moving From Concept To Reality [View article]
    Cheniere already opened marketing office in Chile.
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy, Moving From Concept To Reality [View article]
    You people are talking like you expect the crude to go for $50/barrel indefinitely. I was betting $70 by the end of this year; not I am thinking about $90/barrel. May go down some next year. Why? Just try to research some about the uniqueness of cracking wells. Real eye opener. Output of each is high for the first 6 months and then drops steeply, with the average after 3 year being only a' 3% of the initial. So the oil companies will have to keep "cracking" to keep up with the cracking wells output needs. The author of this piece is totally wrong - not only in the details discussed here but in the whole concept.
    Apr 13, 2015. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of Cheniere Energy [View article]
    jersey, you thinking as a swing trader; many of the others are long term investors, looking years ahead. We are seeing all-out war declared between the Shia and Sunni. Some there are saying that this war will last 30 years. Wait till they sink ships in the Hormuz and the Suez. Hormuz is only a' 31 miles wide and Iran was practicing mining it (undersea mines). Also, Iran on Feb. 25 2015 practiced attack on replica of US aircraft carrier near Hormuz. The video is available on the Web.
    The Shia and Suni can annihilate each other as far as I am concerned. The fallout will be bad for us, as well, though.
    And all this just because that "prophet" of theirs croaked without providing clear guidance for the future as whom to follow - one of his wives, or somebody else....
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    I am not looking for the opportunity to add value here. I look on articles that are related to sectors i am interested in. This time I noticed that the first comment, by Bert, was in tune with my thoughts regarding the article. So I read more until I tripped over you drivel....

    Yeah, sometimes I cannot help myself when I see somebody who is obviously sure he/she is right while the facts show this he/she is totally clueless, or even, if there is family depending on you, so tragically irresponsible. You are a crapshooter, mister.

    I stopped reading the Yahoo Message Boards years ago because they are full of those of your ilk.
    Mar 30, 2015. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    Dividends#1: I do not publish articles here. I run a free educational/informational newsletter elsewhere, under a different surname. Do not need the publishing fees.
    Mar 29, 2015. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    My numbers were actually for 2.25 years, not 2.5; mut more importantly, my numbers were not including reinvestments.
    Mar 29, 2015. 11:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    Dividends #1; OK; you are beginner meaning well.
    I trade stocks for nearly 30 years; in my murky past i was intraday trading with a team on the web.
    Now i am old (nearly 73) and looking for ways to assure that my wife will do OK (inured to potential economic crash) after am i gone; or get Alzheimer's (In which case i will end it myself). Anyway i am a swing trader now and still doing well.
    Dividends #1 - I do not have any idea how much money you have invested or what is your time horizon and what your goals. But i would strongly suggest you sell both of the Reit-related stocks and switch to something safer.
    What is safer? for you, Index ETFs. You may not know that in the unleveraged universe one of the top ETFs is Vanguard's US Total Market (VTI) that beats the S&P500 over the same 2.5 years (mentioned above) by 7%. Over those 2.5 years, including the dividends, VTI is up 47%, MORL 16%, MTGE down -7% and AGNC down -14%
    I play it safe and own MORL; but only 1.200 shares. Also CEFL, BDCL an MLPL; of those, the MLPL is far the best investment at this time. Grossly underpriced and will bring steady, guaranteed dividend income.Not many people really understand the MLPs.
    "Risky" investments? We have $140,000 worth of BIB and $120,000 worth of CURE. Bought couple years ago, but it does not make any difference if you buy it this Monday. I am running newsletter for my friends and family and last Thursday I recommended to buy BIB, and if they are not sure to wait until it breaks $160/share. I hope at least few of them had done so. The target to watch is $190 and if it get's rejected there, to sell; otherwise keep holding..

    Anyway; big divvy does not mean you will get rich. and if you want really good single stock, buy LNG and /or BX. Our LNG stock value is a' $275,000 (we bought the shares at $21/share) not that many years ago. And we will make a lot more money in LNG in next few years. I amls started buying CQP which is LNG's MLP.
    Mar 29, 2015. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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