Scott Martindale's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/501990/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1306681/comments?source=feed#comment-16982161 16982161 Fri, 29 Mar 2013 11:04:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1306681/comments?source=feed#comment-16954861 16954861
FFIV also looks good with an Outlook score of 70, Value 70, Growth 93, Momentum 12, and Earnings Quality 96.

On the other hand, NEM carries much lower scores, including an Outlook score of 56, Value 73, Growth 25, Momentum 9, and Earnings Quality 17. Not quite as good.]]> Thu, 28 Mar 2013 17:19:36 -0400
FFIV also looks good with an Outlook score of 70, Value 70, Growth 93, Momentum 12, and Earnings Quality 96.

On the other hand, NEM carries much lower scores, including an Outlook score of 56, Value 73, Growth 25, Momentum 9, and Earnings Quality 17. Not quite as good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1209881/comments?source=feed#comment-15318041 15318041 ETN) tied to copper futures contracts, and as such it is not included in Sabrient's SectorCast rankings, which creates bottom-up aggregate profiles of ETFs based on the underlying equity scores. What I can say is that from a chart perspective, JJC has fallen hard this month and today it is threatening to close below its 200-day simple moving average. On the other hand, its oscillators have become oversold and price should be getting ready to at least stabilize and perhaps bounce back. Whether it's only a dead cat bounce remains to be seen. From a fundamental perspective, the iShares Basic Materials ETF (IYM), which includes copper miners, continues to rank low in the Sabrient rankings, primarily driven by modest low-term growth projections and net downgrades from the Wall Street analyst community.]]> Thu, 21 Feb 2013 12:22:55 -0500 ETN) tied to copper futures contracts, and as such it is not included in Sabrient's SectorCast rankings, which creates bottom-up aggregate profiles of ETFs based on the underlying equity scores. What I can say is that from a chart perspective, JJC has fallen hard this month and today it is threatening to close below its 200-day simple moving average. On the other hand, its oscillators have become oversold and price should be getting ready to at least stabilize and perhaps bounce back. Whether it's only a dead cat bounce remains to be seen. From a fundamental perspective, the iShares Basic Materials ETF (IYM), which includes copper miners, continues to rank low in the Sabrient rankings, primarily driven by modest low-term growth projections and net downgrades from the Wall Street analyst community.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1005891/comments?source=feed#comment-12172271 12172271 Sun, 02 Dec 2012 13:25:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1034671/comments?source=feed#comment-12172101 12172101
The Outlook rank continued to perform exceptionally well through much of 2010, but during 2011 it began to be impacted (like most quant models) by the inordinately high correlations among equities (perhaps driven by the big macro events leading to asset allocation swings at the expense of traditional stock-picking). Implied correlations approached 85% in the fall of 2011. This "risk-on/risk-off" behavior often led to "junk stocks" outperforming. Because the Outlook rank generally rewards higher-quality GARP stocks with conservative accounting practices, its performance lagged in such an environment.

Nevertheless, quality eventually rises to the top. As equity correlations have receded, the performance of the fundamentals-based Outlook model has shown signs over recent months that it is returning to its former glory. ]]> Sun, 02 Dec 2012 13:19:46 -0500
The Outlook rank continued to perform exceptionally well through much of 2010, but during 2011 it began to be impacted (like most quant models) by the inordinately high correlations among equities (perhaps driven by the big macro events leading to asset allocation swings at the expense of traditional stock-picking). Implied correlations approached 85% in the fall of 2011. This "risk-on/risk-off" behavior often led to "junk stocks" outperforming. Because the Outlook rank generally rewards higher-quality GARP stocks with conservative accounting practices, its performance lagged in such an environment.

Nevertheless, quality eventually rises to the top. As equity correlations have receded, the performance of the fundamentals-based Outlook model has shown signs over recent months that it is returning to its former glory. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/864231/comments?source=feed#comment-9413681 9413681 Thu, 13 Sep 2012 14:02:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/524161/comments?source=feed#comment-4794601 4794601 AAPL). So, a more appropriate benchmark for comparison is the iShares Russell 3000 Index Fund (IWV), which NFO has outperformed by closer to 30%.]]> Wed, 25 Apr 2012 19:15:55 -0400 AAPL). So, a more appropriate benchmark for comparison is the iShares Russell 3000 Index Fund (IWV), which NFO has outperformed by closer to 30%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/421291/comments?source=feed#comment-3327571 3327571
I don't have a TV at the office, so I don't know what the TV personalities have to say. I scan a host of blogs for independent insights and thought-provoking ideas. I do read some mainstream end-of-day market summaries to learn what they say are the consensus "drivers of the day." In any case, I believe that fundamentals drive the market in the longer-term and technicals drive it shorter-term. That's why the market will often shrug off bad news quickly when the chart says it "wants" to rally.

So long as the world remains awash in fiat currency, U.S. stock market fundamentals on balance look pretty good. The commentators can always come up with a reason-of-the-day for market behavior, when in fact the market simply has been in rally mode in which only a major external event could stop it.

But again, we now find it trying to test resistance yet again, and I just don't know if there is enough power right now to push through. That doesn't necessarily imply that a massive selloff is in store, with bulls deciding its time to give up on any chance of further gains and protect profits. But a stronger test of conviction might be needed to attract more cash at these levels.

I can appreciate the view that the market (and the economy) has become a house-of-cards due to collapse. Such massive manipulation of the free market just seems wrong. It might well turn out that we have chosen to avoid enduring a little discomfort now in exchange for severe pain in the future. No, the eventual unwinding of the balance sheets probably won't be pretty. I just don't see any indications that such a scenario is imminent.]]> Fri, 09 Mar 2012 10:45:21 -0500
I don't have a TV at the office, so I don't know what the TV personalities have to say. I scan a host of blogs for independent insights and thought-provoking ideas. I do read some mainstream end-of-day market summaries to learn what they say are the consensus "drivers of the day." In any case, I believe that fundamentals drive the market in the longer-term and technicals drive it shorter-term. That's why the market will often shrug off bad news quickly when the chart says it "wants" to rally.

So long as the world remains awash in fiat currency, U.S. stock market fundamentals on balance look pretty good. The commentators can always come up with a reason-of-the-day for market behavior, when in fact the market simply has been in rally mode in which only a major external event could stop it.

But again, we now find it trying to test resistance yet again, and I just don't know if there is enough power right now to push through. That doesn't necessarily imply that a massive selloff is in store, with bulls deciding its time to give up on any chance of further gains and protect profits. But a stronger test of conviction might be needed to attract more cash at these levels.

I can appreciate the view that the market (and the economy) has become a house-of-cards due to collapse. Such massive manipulation of the free market just seems wrong. It might well turn out that we have chosen to avoid enduring a little discomfort now in exchange for severe pain in the future. No, the eventual unwinding of the balance sheets probably won't be pretty. I just don't see any indications that such a scenario is imminent.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/308569/comments?source=feed#comment-2045684 2045684
For example, SYNA has a good combination of Bull and Bear (56 and 63) and its beta is 1.2. SLXP has has a good combination of Bull and Bear (60 and 57) and its beta is 0.8. PROJ has high Bull, low Bear (72, 20) and its beta is 1.1, while SANM also has high Bull, low Bear (77, 25) and its beta is 3.1.

You might think that the strongest correlation with beta would be in high Bear, low Bull, which would be indicative of a defensive, low-beta stock. For example, NAII (Bull 44, Bear 86) has a beta of 0.5. However, NETL (Bull 28, Bear 81) has a beta of 1.3.

Bull and Bear scores are simply Sabrient's unique way of identifying which stocks have been leading rallies and/or serving as safe havens over the recent past, with the expectation that such behavior might continue over the near term. Note that the Bear score is the basis for the Sabrient Defensive Equity Index (which is tracked by exchange-traded fund DEF).]]> Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:35:27 -0500
For example, SYNA has a good combination of Bull and Bear (56 and 63) and its beta is 1.2. SLXP has has a good combination of Bull and Bear (60 and 57) and its beta is 0.8. PROJ has high Bull, low Bear (72, 20) and its beta is 1.1, while SANM also has high Bull, low Bear (77, 25) and its beta is 3.1.

You might think that the strongest correlation with beta would be in high Bear, low Bull, which would be indicative of a defensive, low-beta stock. For example, NAII (Bull 44, Bear 86) has a beta of 0.5. However, NETL (Bull 28, Bear 81) has a beta of 1.3.

Bull and Bear scores are simply Sabrient's unique way of identifying which stocks have been leading rallies and/or serving as safe havens over the recent past, with the expectation that such behavior might continue over the near term. Note that the Bear score is the basis for the Sabrient Defensive Equity Index (which is tracked by exchange-traded fund DEF).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/289746/comments?source=feed#comment-1860054 1860054 Thu, 25 Aug 2011 13:03:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/281110/comments?source=feed#comment-1785267 1785267 Mon, 25 Jul 2011 13:24:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/273341/comments?source=feed#comment-1689443 1689443 Sun, 05 Jun 2011 12:42:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/262263/comments?source=feed#comment-1576584 1576584 H)Edge long/short model portfolio.]]> Thu, 07 Apr 2011 14:57:32 -0400 H)Edge long/short model portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/253218/comments?source=feed#comment-1478994 1478994 Fri, 18 Feb 2011 11:42:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/241481/comments?source=feed#comment-1352982 1352982 Tue, 14 Dec 2010 12:43:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/239150/comments?source=feed#comment-1329332 1329332
Also, I see that the bulk of your list comprises speculative gold, emerging markets, and leveraged ETFs, which most investors shy away from. I'd like to see a similar list of top performers among unleveraged ETFs holding diversified portfolios of U.S. stocks.

For example, if you look at an ETF like NFO, which tracks (full disclosure: my firm) Sabrient's Insider Sentiment Index, it is a way to follow those who are closest to a given company -- corp officers and Wall Street analysts who follow the firm. It holds 100 high-profile stocks reflecting positive sentiment and has an unleveraged YTD return of about 18%, which easily outperforms both the cap-weighted SPY and the equal-weighted RSP, and a 4-STAR Morningstar rating. Although it has relatively low daily volume (approx 25,000 shares), the bid/ask spread is only a couple of pennies with very low variance from NAV.]]> Tue, 30 Nov 2010 12:20:52 -0500
Also, I see that the bulk of your list comprises speculative gold, emerging markets, and leveraged ETFs, which most investors shy away from. I'd like to see a similar list of top performers among unleveraged ETFs holding diversified portfolios of U.S. stocks.

For example, if you look at an ETF like NFO, which tracks (full disclosure: my firm) Sabrient's Insider Sentiment Index, it is a way to follow those who are closest to a given company -- corp officers and Wall Street analysts who follow the firm. It holds 100 high-profile stocks reflecting positive sentiment and has an unleveraged YTD return of about 18%, which easily outperforms both the cap-weighted SPY and the equal-weighted RSP, and a 4-STAR Morningstar rating. Although it has relatively low daily volume (approx 25,000 shares), the bid/ask spread is only a couple of pennies with very low variance from NAV.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/233094/comments?source=feed#comment-1281646 1281646 www.sabrient.com/blog/... Also, our models have recently put Buy ratings back on MSFT, INTC, and APOL on good valuations. On the other hand, CTV was just downgraded from Buy to Hold after its big price spike.]]> Fri, 29 Oct 2010 14:47:09 -0400 www.sabrient.com/blog/... Also, our models have recently put Buy ratings back on MSFT, INTC, and APOL on good valuations. On the other hand, CTV was just downgraded from Buy to Hold after its big price spike.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/229758/comments?source=feed#comment-1255552 1255552 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:16:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/228030/comments?source=feed#comment-1238421 1238421 Sat, 02 Oct 2010 19:18:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/227590/comments?source=feed#comment-1235665 1235665
Of course, any given basket of stocks will score differently depending upon which names are included and the weighting scheme (e.g., market cap, fundamental, equal, etc., which can change greatly between index rebalances).]]> Thu, 30 Sep 2010 17:17:53 -0400
Of course, any given basket of stocks will score differently depending upon which names are included and the weighting scheme (e.g., market cap, fundamental, equal, etc., which can change greatly between index rebalances).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/225643/comments?source=feed#comment-1215619 1215619
At Sabrient, we not only produce relative rankings of equity ETFs based on a quantitative, bottom-up, appropriately-weighted composite scoring of the given ETF's holdings, but we also build quant indexes that reflect an algorithm that seeks to layer alpha generation on top of the intended beta exposure -- either by identifying a subset of equally-weighted "best of breed" securities or through a quant-score-weighting of the given universe or sector (as opposed to market-cap or fundamental weighting).

Great article.]]> Fri, 17 Sep 2010 14:43:19 -0400
At Sabrient, we not only produce relative rankings of equity ETFs based on a quantitative, bottom-up, appropriately-weighted composite scoring of the given ETF's holdings, but we also build quant indexes that reflect an algorithm that seeks to layer alpha generation on top of the intended beta exposure -- either by identifying a subset of equally-weighted "best of breed" securities or through a quant-score-weighting of the given universe or sector (as opposed to market-cap or fundamental weighting).

Great article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/222908/comments?source=feed#comment-1189100 1189100 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 13:01:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/219946/comments?source=feed#comment-1158719 1158719 Wed, 11 Aug 2010 13:06:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/217984/comments?source=feed#comment-1144092 1144092 H)Edge long/short portfolio.]]> Mon, 02 Aug 2010 13:13:57 -0400 H)Edge long/short portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/216983/comments?source=feed#comment-1138506 1138506 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 10:49:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/216526/comments?source=feed#comment-1134663 1134663 Tue, 27 Jul 2010 10:05:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/215074/comments?source=feed#comment-1121692 1121692 Mon, 19 Jul 2010 13:09:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/213327/comments?source=feed#comment-1100756 1100756 Wed, 07 Jul 2010 10:12:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/209172/comments?source=feed#comment-1059119 1059119 Wed, 09 Jun 2010 11:51:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/208863/comments?source=feed#comment-1057885 1057885 Tue, 08 Jun 2010 15:52:27 -0400