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Mobocracyminded
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Don't follow the pack. Value investor who looks at alternative answers to the mainstream analysis. Most analysts just mimic the valuations that their peers provide. I look for deeper movement within the psyche of the investment community and attempt to stop before they all stampede over the cliff.
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  • America, Economic Powerhouse!
    The United States is at a fantastic cross-roads which the main stream media seems to have completely ignored.

    The US dollar is at a reasonably low value vs. major currencies including the Chinese Yuan, Euro, Canadian Dollar, British Pound.

    When you look at the trade deficit, exports have grown steadily, fueled by a lower dollar, and only offset by import of oil.  If the US had lowered its dependence on foreign oil (41% of oil imports come from Canada and Mexico) we would had a major decrease in the trade deficit in 2010.  US exports are at a 19 year high, rising to $172 billion.

    Have you watched the price of wheat?  Up 37% in 2010 on droughts in Russia and China.  The wheat crop value: $10.6 billion.   The US produced 60.4 million metric tons from June to August (2009-2010).

    Manufacturing growth, while slowing, had been in a growth mode for 22 months.

    Excerpt from:

    http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm


    The 11 industries reporting growth in new orders in May — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting decreases in new orders in May are: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

    New
    Orders
    %
    Better
    %
    Same
    %
    Worse

    Net

    Index
    May 2011305416+1451.0
    Apr 201149438+4161.7
    Mar 2011434710+3363.3
    Feb 2011434611+3268.0
     


    So what should we do to take advantage of this great opportunity?

    The Government needs to provide guidance and laws to streamline the export of US goods.    Forget about trying to start the "consumer engine" of the 90's and 2000's.   That era is over.  The new US is an exporting powerhouse.

    Train workers to manage high tech, high productivity, manufacturing processes.  Train all our small businesses to target foreign markets.

    Now is the time to strike and grow the US out of our recession doldrums.

    Want to reach the low hanging fruit?   Canada.  A market nearly as large as California, with a currency that makes our products 30% cheaper then those produced domestically. 

    Other quick improvements?
    Foreign investment in US manufacturing.   Find an existing manufacturer that wants to move to the US.   First thing I'm going to do after writing this article is to research Canadian manufacturers that might be enticed to move to the US.  Win/Win - existing market and brand name recognition in Canada with immediate reduction in operating costs.

    Don't let the mainstream media, who focus on reporting on lewd twitter images from congressmen, to guide you on the future of the US economy.




    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Jun 13 1:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • GERN heading for a short squeeze
    Pure editorial today.

    Got to love a clueless management when it comes to managing your shareholders expectations.  GERN issued roughly 20 million shares on 12/7/2010 at a 18% discount off the trading price.

    Talk about sweetheart deals.

    A week later, repercussions and retaliations are still the order of the day, keeping the stock price under $5.00 share and very volatile.

    Despite the fact that management will use these proceeds to help bolster the bottom line after acquiring license rights from Angiochem to allow treatment of metastastic brain cancers (the Angiochem product allows for the telomerase inhibitors to pass the blood brain barrier) this was a terrible thing to do to your shareholders.

    Sure - GERN has upside:

    * Cure severed spinal columns
    * Treat Breast Cancer (therepudic Cancer vaccines)
    * Treat Cervical Cancer
    * Treat Small Cell Carcinoma
    * Repair Damaged Heart Muscle
    * Treat Diabetes

    But all these potential products are still years from market.

    Yet, I caution investors shorting the stock, which currently stands at about 19 days avg volume.  Ugly day if you get caught short, when any of the Phase II results come in and GERN has somehow cured a cancer.
    Dec 15 3:29 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Housing Market and Stock Market following ARM Readjustments Despite Low Rates
     Well - I'm reassured that the numbers now match our predictions, albeit a month sooner than I anticipated.  Back in March, I stated that the markets would rise then crash spectacularly in July.   Looks like the high was actually April 26 or so at DOW 11,205.  The recent DOW low on June 7th, was  9,810 - a 12% drop from the high.

    I called the bottom of the TED spread at 10 basis points and it has risen ever since, yet no where near the height of the crash.

    Where will the market go?

    I anticipate that we will continue to test the 10,000 level of the DOW over the next month until we get some (any) good news.   Retailers will see a bump in September as pent up demand for goods outweighs the cautionary consumer.

    Housing, as previously stated will be flat to down for new construction (i.e. non-urban areas) as there is a refocus to live closer to work.

    I'd like to share a personal experience with the mortgage market as I recently closed on a house.

    Despite my massive loan to value ratio, the loan process was fastidious to the point of stupidity.   CYA was the note of the day and the mortgage officers are erring on the side of extreme caution.  Woe to anyone trying to get a mortgage in Las Vegas or Florida.

    On closing, look in August for Value opportunities.  This will be a flip flopped market for the Oct-Dec 2010 timeframe, rising when it historically falls.


    Disclosure: SDS hedge
    Jun 25 12:42 PM | Link | Comment!
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