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Mike Bruzzone

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  • Intel: PC Weakness Priced In [View article]
    Hawkeyes 2011,

    My long run SA posts provide Intel production economic, and price data, for considering aspects of Intel performance including financial performance.

    Quantitative production data is available from no other source, I'm aware, at no charge, so take or leave for whatever it might be worth including for investment decision making.

    Qualitative anecdotes are my attempt to add unique industry insight.

    The work falls out of my Docket 9341 discovery and invited academic studies role, to federal attorney’s beginning Docket 9288, that’s to valuable particularly for industry enterprise to leave to FTC and USDOJ alone.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    Jul 4, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: PC Weakness Priced In [View article]
    I almost placed this in the Intel Should buy Qualcomm report on summer 2014 audit finding QCOM server part conceptually simple.

    Specific to Intel;

    Bifurcation that is a scattering of Intel product line's peaks on many variants searching for what’s to sell. Press scuttle says many wait for Skylake. The channel continues to face continuing Ivy Xeon, Haswell all categories, and the Bay Trail surplus condition. Haswell mobile just begins to see some processor reclamation for resale.

    Channel is moving Broadwell dual mobile and for quad attempts to extract a supra premium notebook price, in the thousands of dollars, suggesting the continued layering of high price system categories on top of existing system supply now designated for pressing onto the masses.

    For Broadwell Quad, Nvidia scores a continued Intel license where lead system pricing continues to suggest a separation between the haves and have nots.

    There are now two distinct Intel customer classes; IDMs allocated new Intel product on development relationship and all other’s limited to surplus from prior production generations. May result in competitor opening’s competing with new offerings against Intel prior generations of surplus.

    Brasswell is too early to call on BayTrail surplus but appears to be on allocation priced down. However on Haswell Pentium and Celeron low volume’s Braswell is meant to be produced.

    Atom xx line, Moorefield, Merrifield appear to be Microsoft, Asustek, Dell limited runs. For Atom xx; x7 Z8700 to Microsoft, and x3 C3130 selling in miniscule quantities means won’t make a difference.

    Xeon D incorporating FPGA ballyhooed by many remains a development platform in development quantities. This analyst doubts Intel will introduce a full line up, this year, other than custom runs for public cloud with the necessary platform and programming strengths.

    Within established Xeon line E3 1200 v4 with 6300 graphics remains questionable as v3 Iris was not commercially accepted including on E3 1200 category 32 GB physical memory limitation. 4600 GT2 secures a 30% share of v3 volume first six months of 2015 where some in direct sales suggest the system target is rendering farms. Beyond 1U server sans graphics Intel was hunting for places to move E3 plus graphics.

    If you're looking to purchase a real PC with high performance Nvidia graphics, multi-screen support and plenty of ECC memory, at a bargain basement price, check out Dell, HP and Lenovo branded Ivy Bridge E5 1600 v2 workstations on Ebay; by filter E5 1607 v2, E5 1620 v2, E5 1650 v2.

    E5 4600 v3 on E5 4 way v2 surplus is thought limited to Intel first tier customers. Similar to E5 2400 v3, E5 4600 v3 appears discontinued or limited to available on request. The channel got ‘stuck it to ya’ on E5 4600 v2 stocking cost and I don’t think the line is coming back as a channel offering. Analyst will continue to monitor for 4600 v3 broker channel support. There are Intel customer introductions.

    E7 v3 on E7 v2 surplus is suspect offered only to first tier customers, or, becomes a custom product offering. Intel continues to bank on E7 for line’s high core and thread count to secure revenue reserve. Like Xeon D requires the necessary platform and programming strengths to make a processing array deliver unique functionality types.

    Right now Intel is in a similar product transition when migrating from P4 through Dempsey and Yonah, to what ever comes next, and that was Conroe in time frame. At the bottom of this pit that is not quite an innovation but more a consolidation phase, if not capable of fielding another Nehalem, is set for trouble yet seems accounted on revenue reserve target insuring against product lapse or process stall minimally two years out.

    Those basing Intel decisions on Analyst annual PC unit shipments or investors on Intel’s annual financial still operate on a different volume and revenue basis compared to working Intel cipher the disintegrated story problem, communicated in data bits leaked by press augmented by executive clues, relied by traders to calculate product volumes and marginal revenue up to five quarters into future time.

    On the signaled volume at $1K / 2 IDM price method Intel 7 year plan entering 2009 aims for average annual revenues of $59 billion, which Intel does succeed, includes potential of up to three years in revenue reserve falling out of continued sales during / following the last three years of a seven year production plan.

    Reserve comes from Xeon 4600 and primarily E7 marginal revenue sales lag extended over time.

    Although significant to note following the Kzanich quarterly Bay Trail volume statements, relied by inter nation competition authorities to check Intel marginal revenue and marginal cost, for determining Bay Trail dumping, and along with SEC notice the continued “collusion by model”, Intel now appears to have stopped signaling product volumes all together. Making it difficult to calculate Intel into future time volume at Broadwell into Skylake or whatever comes next.

    Core Yonah through Yorkfield Product Line Split; q1 2006 – q2 2010
    510,948.467 units in time frame that does not include up front the P4 units run down to run end.

    18.6% Desktop
    66.4% Mobile
    14.8% Xeon

    Revenue Split

    13.7% Desktop
    54.9% Mobile
    31.3% Xeon

    Core 2 Nehalem Product Line Split through Haswell; q4 2008 - 2015
    1,325,211,956 units < 80.9 Million Atom through q4 2014 end.

    23.45% Desktop
    41.94% Mobile
    34.59% Xeon

    Revenue Split

    09.70% Desktop
    14.43% Mobile
    75.85% Xeon

    Core Yonah through Haswell Product Line Split; q1 2006 – 2015
    1,836,160,423 units < 80.9 Million Atom through q4 2014 end.

    22.13% Desktop
    48.76% Mobile
    29.11% Xeon

    Revenue Split

    10.00% Desktop
    21.58% Mobile
    68.42% Xeon

    Notation: Xeon high price grades E7 in particular sell through many years where a full run supply is traditionally through 3 years. Today two runs make nearly a three year supply.

    Analysis; Intel Xeon DCG volume revenue push begins Beckton to subsidize PCCG marginal revenue collapse that had to anticipate the volume mobile ramp at mass market pricing.

    Intel phone SOC volumes remain limited.

    Intel Average Total Cost per unit of microprocessor production only is $250; Cost of PE&C < Dep + R&D + Sales + Intel Inside / 2014 CPU production at 292,167,207 units. This analyst includes companion component cost within the processor sales price. Xeon subsidizes all products priced < $250.

    Intel prefers desktop 1K price at $500 and aims for marginal revenue at economic profit $500 that is 1K $1,000 / 2. Analyst thinks Extremes are playing a much greater PCCG revenue role. If desktop volume estimates are previously short by this analyst, on signal interpretation, those would be Ivy and Haswell Extreme volumes on grade split wave form comparing known E5 2600 v2 volume wave form.

    Full Run Average Weighed 1K Price as of July 2015;
    / 2 for IDM price that is Intel Marginal Revenue

    Bay Trail I AWP $31.00 / 2 = $16.50
    Bay Trail T AWP $29.94 / 2 = $14.97; note $4.97 price + $10 subsidy = $15
    Bay Trail M AWP $124.41 / 2 = $62.05
    Bay Trail D AWP $ 83.93 / 2 = $41.96

    Bay Trail % Volume

    I 0.73% (only E3815 registers in broker market)
    T 29.06%
    M 42.56%
    D 27.65%

    All Atom Merrifield, Moorefield, Atom xx = nothing, and nothing again in relation to existing Bay Trail volumes. Atom xx becomes difficult category to determine volume sans Intel signal requires monitoring Digitimes for brand clues, checks against investment research.

    All Broadwell Desktop AWP $366 / 2 = $183

    i7 5775C Barely Registers
    Prior R grades accepted in Brick PC category primarily.

    All Broadwell Quad Mobile AWP $395.58 / 2 = $197.79

    To early too tell.

    i7 5950 HQ 2.9 GHz 6200 GPU 7.1%
    i7 5700 HQ 2.7 GHz 5200 GPU 92.8%

    All Broadwell Dual Mobile AWP $309.98 / 2 = $154.99

    Broadwell Dual Mobile % Volume

    Core M 10.75%
    Core i7 27.51%
    Core i5 45.95%
    Core i3 13.30%
    Pentium 0.011%
    Celeron 0.013%

    Xeon Broadwell E3 1200 v4; no broker volume to estimate.

    If product line sells, at all, perhaps developers optimizing code for Intel Iris GPU.

    Xeon Broadwell D AWP $593 / 2 = $296.50, only 1540 available, low broker price $220. Intel Xeon D R&D probe capable development module eBay price $50 purchased back by Intel Corporate Security.

    All Haswell Refresh 4xxx AWP $258.76 / 2 = $129.36

    Core i7 60.24%
    Core i5 28.45%
    Core i3 09.28%
    Pentium 0.016%
    Celeron 0.003%

    All Haswell Extreme AWP $650.47 / 2 = $325.23

    8 Core 5960X 33.0%; there is movement to 8C verse Ivy 6C.
    6 Core 5930K 30.8%
    6 Core 5820K 36.1%; but low price grade remains most popular,

    Haswell Quad Desktop + E3 1200 v3 AWP $238.36 / 2 = $119.18

    i7 39.86%
    E3 0.051%
    i5 39.31%
    i3 11.47%
    Pentium 0.041%

    Haswell Quad Mobile AWP $440.69 / 2 = $220.34

    i7 100%

    Haswell Dual Mobile + Pentium & Celeron $290.26 / 2 = $145.13

    i7 21.68%
    i5 54.00%
    i3 18.30%
    Pentium 0.007%
    Celeron 0.052%

    Xeon Haswell E5 1600 v3 AWP $575.25 / 2 = $287.62

    4 Core 52.14%
    6 Core 19.01%
    8 Core 28.84%
    10 Core 0%
    12 Core 0%
    14 Core 0%

    Xeon Haswell E5 2600 v3 AWP $1,129.46 / 2 = $564.73

    4 Core 4%
    6 Core 34.1%
    8 Core 19.2%
    10 Core 18.3%
    12 Core 12.4%
    14 Core 7.9%
    16 Core 1.6%
    18 Core 2.0%

    Xeon Haswell E5 4600 v3 estimate AWP on v2 SKU and grade split, $2,950.16 / 2 = $1,475.08. Although suspect to be 1st Tier customer offering. Analyst will continue to monitor for channel grade split.

    Xeon Haswell E7 v3 estimate AWP on v2 SKU grade split $3,238.71 / 2 = $1,618.85. Suspect 1st Tier customer offering.

    8 way 32.47%
    4 way 67.53%

    Intel is dropping the 4 way AWP from Ivy IDM (1K / 2) @ $3,145 to Haswell IDM @ $948 and this is the ‘top down’ half of Intel’s current crush ARM server production economic ‘pricing strategy’.

    Prior monopoly revenue on E7 v2 4 way sales before Haswell 4 way at 13x AMC also seems to have “stuck it to”, the 2nd HPC tier of Intel’s 1st Tier Customer Base. HPC system houses likely have negotiation leverage on Ivy E7 v2 4 way volumes, now, less a monopsony sales outcome.

    Haswell E7 v3 8 way sees slight AWP increase verse Ivy E7 v2 8 way.

    Ivy Xeon E5 and E7 are not going away anytime soon.

    Ivy Extreme has pretty much cleared the channel and brokers are attempting to sell 2600 v2 series processor onto x79 boards.

    Ivy Extreme AWP $575.13 / 2 = $287.56 at end of run:

    6 Core 4960X 25.20%
    6 Core 4930K 36.22%
    4 Core 4820K 38.57%

    Xeon Ivy E5 1600 v2 AWP $645.41 / 2 = $322.70

    4 Core 55.56%
    6 Core 44.43%
    8 Core 08.45%

    Xeon Ivy E5 2400 v2 AWP $574.99 / 2 = $287.49

    4 Core 34.90%
    6 Core 31.64%
    8 Core 24.13%
    10 Core 9.31%

    Xeon Ivy E5 2600 v2 AWP $1,062.31 / 2 = $531.15

    4 Core 12.50%
    6 Core 35.40%
    8 Core 21.99%
    10 Core 23.64%
    12 Core 06.45%

    Xeon Ivy E5 4600 v2 AWP $1,781.30 / 2 = $890.65

    4 Core 07.60%
    6 Core 24.52%
    8 Core 33.74%
    10 Core 33.77%
    12 Core 0.003%

    Xeon Ivy E7 v2 AWP $3,918.15 / 2 = $1,959.07

    8 way 20.75%
    4 way 79.25%
    2 way 0%

    Mike Bruzzone
    Camp Marketing
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel-Altera: My Thoughts On The Proposed Deal [View article]
    Production economic assessment continues to suggest Intel under reports DCG revenue and leaves some costs unaccounted or miss accounted.

    As some might be aware, I have very little faith in the absolute accuracy of Intel’s financial statements beyond the framework of an investment game. Although a game long established and much relied by the entire community.

    I think Altera understands this hidden reality where Intel equity may be no more valued than AMD debt? Where between these two points reality will likely become clearer, sometime entering second half of 2016. Please refer to Intel 2014 litigation risk pages 102 and 103.

    Minimally there are extra economic costs integrating Altera legitimately with Intel. That cost is costly on Intel side of remedies implementing best industrial, marketing, sales, legal, governance, reporting practice. Altera comes without that baggage.

    For Data Center, technically, there is no doubt FPGA into Control Plane Processor Integration including combined within a structured ASIC is where the market’s heading. For Intel, if nothing more than to sustain current Xeon price to margin regardless of all the new product category incremental attempts Intel is striving.

    Standard design mantra has been no more than a 10% increase in wafer cost per generation incorporating new features. My bet this rule no longer applies, as design’s bifurcate all over the map primarily funded by Xeon margin meaning continued monopoly extension.

    In relation to equity, Intel debt on the other hand, in this $16.7 billion dollar acquisition, can still be recovered from demanded production within the marginal revenue gain of one current E5 four quarter run, or ¼ of an E7 run, but only if those product flows are demanded and not priced down as duds or deadweight loss.

    So no big deal for the combined entity recovering that acquisition cost. May extend out on continuing Intel surplus condition and the cost of duds from experimentation, but who could be worried by Intel staking a position in structured ASIC in Xeon SOC? Everyone will have them.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    Jun 3, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]

    What does 0.25/cm2 mean?
    How does that metric correlate to % yield?


    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 27, 2015. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]

    Categories of mobile communications group loss is the query,

    $4.206 billion operating loss on $202 million in revenue in 2014.
    $3.148 billion operating loss on $1.375 billion in revenue 2013.
    $1.776 billion operating loss on $1.791 billion in revenue in 2012.

    I’ve done this exercise before and my answer is, Intel 2014 mobile loss is primarily a function of the Ivy Bridge Dual Mobile, and particularly Core i5 surplus packaged or remarked as Core i3, Pentium and Celeron to get rid of it. That is what I believe to be the primary culprit responsible for the mobile group loss; cost of Core 5 dual mobile priced as i3, Pentium and Celeron.

    On the classic Bay Trail Culprit:

    First what is the operating cost add? Solely on 292,167,707 processors produced 2014 +26% Marketing and Intel Inside and + 68% sales. Some would halve that amount recognizing companion control hub and everything else Intel makes.

    R&D + PE&C I tally as fixed cost.

    The reality is when price drops below average total cost per unit of production Xeon margin subsidizes everything.

    I calculate 55,031,281 Bay Trail full run T, D, M, I grade volumes q4 2013 through q4 2014.

    On q4 2013 initial T grade IDM press followed by 2014 T, D, M, I full run, on channel grade spilt, only a maximum of 24,640,601 units, or 44%, are T grade.

    So cost lines;

    MG&A per unit variable loss, when Bay Trail IDM Price is $8.27 hard cost, or less. At design production cost = price $34.48 down to $16.56, MG&A is spent but not a variable loss.

    Design production that is product priced at or less than marginal cost on all Bay Trail T grade down to $8.27 price = cost. I calculate range $285 to $396 million for Bay Trail T P @ C but will not get into the particulars here.

    Incremental production loss on all Bay Trail volume priced less than $8.27 hard cost. China $4 IDM price low suggests $4.27 per unit incremental loss plus the variable cost add across some volume.

    Bay Trail T CR units, the reported $4 to $5 variety are just 16.18% of all T volumes. So I’m satisfied my Price @ Cost line includes them. That is of course, unless, Intel produces more Bay Trail into 2015. But that cost is still peanuts compared to the overall mobile group loss.

    Bay Trail T contra subsidy that is a rebated kick back following the quarterly build classified as nonsense cost; 24,640,601 units * $20 Kzanich stated minimum = $492,812,020.

    Modeling suggests Contra susidy could be as high as $37.

    Some would say on the Kzanich stated tablet volume Contra cost line doubles. But on channel grade split I have no data to suggest 46 million Bay Trail are sold into tablet. Even packaging the higher price M as T design production cost is still $17 to $21.

    On Kzanich 46 million tablet chip statement 21,359,399 are something other than Bay Trail. I have them as Core i5 and Core i3 U and Y volumes at $33 cost sold at price = $704,860,167.

    So once again my 2014 mobile loss calc tallies around $1,492,672,187. So in 2014 where is the remaining $2,713,727,979 in operating losses?

    What cost line(s) did I miss? And I don’t track communications products.

    2014 and 2013 losses point back to the Ivy Dual Mobile surplus. Ivy Dual Mobile follows Sandy Bridge surplus deluge of all kinds. On this continuous surplus condition Haswell mobile is produced in slim volume. As a result I expect Broadwell moving into Skylake volumes to be huge.

    I've posted prior on Core M and Bay Trail:

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 27, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]
    Got it defect density.

    May 26, 2015. 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]
    Ephud and txbadonetoo,

    Continuing dialogue thank you for your input.

    When I estimate wafer price on marginal cost of individual dice at 70% yield, that is not precise on whatever actual known yield, but delivers a wafer cost or price; dependent on customer side. So that's it, I am not estimating yield, I am at best, determining a number of wafer starts.

    So txvadonetoo, I agree, plugging in generally a 70% yield on qualitative audit across lithographers, is not a precise way to estimate yield, although provides a general base.

    On Intel internal, when QUANTA was explained by Intel in 1997, to the best of my knowledge, the model itself which is Total Revenue Total Cost Method for estimating processor marginal revenue and marginal cost is solely based on Intel price for two reasons.

    First, this method for estimating Intel revenue and margin into future time is based on a very simple premise. That premise is all Intel cost's of design production are incorporated into a processor's final price; period.

    That is the simplicity of utilizing the model.

    You don't have to know cost, only price for determining marginal revenue and marginal cost for playing the stock price, currently, about 5 quarters into future time.

    The model only breaks when Intel does not account for all costs in price.

    The way this is handled within QUANTA is by increasing wafer starts for producing the required volumes and noting that added cost.

    I always work the model assuming Intel best practice seeking the absolute lowest marginal cost at any unit volume within the production run.

    Results are mixed.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 26, 2015. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]
    Thanks Vlad,

    Intel raised Core Pentium and Celeron Price umbrella and these old fashion Celeron 1K price points $49, $52, $59, $69, $79, seem available for Atom x to fill. That was my affirming after thought, after running the numbers.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 25, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]

    Honest, knowing the price of the weight of material's in = cost.

    My cost estimate includes the PCH on SIP . . . that actually needs to be figured in the dice area. I'll work on that for a 2.5D package. I assume PCH is traditionally thrown in n/c for 2 chip implementation in volume; ie, Xeon + PCH.

    The model I rely is primarily based on the best attainable marginal cost delta on volume ramp. When the model started in 1996 it was based on changes corresponding to price and volume which is also still calculated.

    When determining dice per wafer, I usually apply a 70% yield. The yield assessment I considered was 2014 Holt 14 nm learning curve yield from investors video. He said it got close to 22 nm and I'm sure it is or will be soon.

    I've encountered this observation before that Intel etches for $4K. I've never bought that observation, the cost of producing wafers varies on the sophistication of the design steps that is more than just good dice count.

    But if we can figure out from a design engineering perspective I'd love to know another determination.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 25, 2015. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]

    In the business cost is certainly figured more precisely on known foundry, package, test cost. I'm aware the pros estimate cost of package on material content and physical design specification; so precisely. Anyone want to take a crack at that for Broadwell Dual Mobile I'd be interested in the result. I know there are some fab operators and design engineers in the mix here.

    Pursuant to precise, for fabrication, I've advocated cost determined on the molecular weight of materials going in to the reactors.

    My estimate is based on the Total Revenue Total Cost Model on 1K price / 2s method to find Intel Marginal Revenue, Intel Marginal Cost and Hard Cost.

    So I divide the full run average marginal cost finding by die area to determine cost ^mm2. There are 136 full runs in the data base from P5 to now for comparison.

    On Broadwell learning curve I would expect the cost to easily halve from initial at $0.63 down to $0.31. Checking the spreadsheet data just now, normalized dice size on production split is 84 mm^2. The best possible cost I can determine now is $0.52 mm^2 passing the 11,552,369th unit of production at an acceptable yield; on the model.

    14 nm cost has not come down to 22 nm yet.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 25, 2015. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]
    Whoops let's adjust this a little, because above, I based Atom x % of Surface 3 not on B.O.M but low retail price.

    I did locate B.O.M. tear down for RT ARM version at $271. At Atom x IDM price $64.26 to $76.86 that would be 24 to 28% of this Bill of Materials estimate.

    So adjust down the Intel IDM price estimate to a $54.20 best, more likely on RISK production $59 to $69 emphasizing the 9's at this rung of Intel price ladder meaning a Celeron like price strategy.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 25, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Samsung Is Working On A Tablet With An Atom X5 Processor And 4GB Of RAM [View article]

    Interesting question on Atom x cost, as 1K volume Price is not presently noted on Intel price list.

    Surface 3 x7 tablets on ebay range in price from $899 to $499. Using the old processor 20% of mobile bill of materials rule, I'd say Atom x price is not cheap.

    Even if this old % of B.O.M. rule of thumb calculates high, could Atom x OEM price be in the $50 to $100 range?

    Let's consider cost question from another angle.

    Guestimating again that 14 nm Atom x SOC is roughly one half the die area of 102 mm^2 Bay trail at 22 nm or somewhere between 51 and 61 mm^2. That includes no average for a normalized dice size across the xX product line grades.

    Best Bay Trail hard cost on production economics is $0.06 per mm^2 placing Atom x best some where between $3 and $4, that by the way as I recall, is a Kzanich stated objective; 1/2 Bay Trail Cost.

    However please note that Bay Trail design production 'fully burdened" cost is actually in the $16 range. Design production means just that + R&D, Marketing, Sales and Subsidies. So best Atom x cost $8.00 sans subsidies.

    For Atom x 14 nm is still RISK production, not even Broadwell mobile find its competitive production legs, until just after production peak which is about now, putting that supply from inventories out into the 3rd quarter of 2015.

    Intel also likes to make an economic profit on the initial production ramp. Although there is an alternate scenario I will propose at the end of this post.

    Currently on production economics best 14 nm Broadwell Dual Mobile Cost is $0.63 mm^2 and ranges higher across a full 50 million unit run on the marginal cost add sorting through the sludge for recovered parts.

    Best Haswell Refresh desktop run end cost per mm^2 is $0.13. So Intel's objective must be too reduce 14 nm cost minimally by 3x.

    I believe 14 nm cost is up in relation to 22 nm that will remain a production node for some time just like 28 nm at TSMC today. Reducing metal layers to make wide slim dice is cost effective. Except that Atom x is designed for a mobile form factor.

    So what would a 51 to 61 mm^2 Atom x die in package + test cost? Right now?
    How about $32.13 to $38.43 x2 Intel Margin or $64.26 to $76.86 or 13 to 15% of a $499 mobile B.O.M.

    Finally the alternative scenario including why Intel has not stated an Atom x 1K price? Because Atom x are offered "free in sales package" with other Intel mobile parts? Purchase the Core Mobile premium movie pass and get the Atom x popcorn thrown in for free?

    Which, by the way is actually not free because the IDM still has to wrap the cost of a compute platform around this form of Intel incentive going all the way back to 80386, trusting that the end system will be pulled by end buyers earning its system margin value.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 25, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Wintel Alliance Might Help The Atom X3 Gain More Industry Support [View article]
    SOFia just shows in channel this week.

    Glut of Bay Trail remains.

    Braswell Pentium and Celeron remain missing in action.

    Meerfield and Moorefield continue to drizzle out as Kzanich reports in stockholders meeting conference 10 to 15 million Zenfone SOC target 2015, that is one half of the ASUS original statement at 25 to 30 million.

    Boy what a PR Puff Puff piece the annual Intel stockholder BOD conference call was in relation to all the real issues Intel BOD faces.

    Substantial broker market clearing of Haswell mobile this week.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    May 23, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Intel Compute Stick Is A Smart Buy [View article]

    Thanks for the DT pointer. I was aware of that report. Read it carefully or you'd think Intel is subsidizing, as in a $3 to $4 dollar discount, on Bay Trail CR. Read DT again and then search for other reports. You'll find that the subsidy is actually price per unit $3 to $4 each.

    Bay Trail CR are designated alphanumeric; Z3735/36 e/f/g.

    $1K list $17 to $21. On divide by 2's rule s; 5 parts at Price $17+17+20+20+21 / 5 = $19 / 2 = $9.50 design production / 2 = $4.25 dice cost. But dice need to be packaged and tested.

    $4 per unit is P < C.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    Apr 29, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Intel Compute Stick Is A Smart Buy [View article]
    Then, the other investigative journalism assignment, is to determine if Core M is still capable of recovery at 1C + heterogeneous compute? That is a big deal actually on the performance advantages.

    Following, who bought that sludge for $70.25 ($281 / 2 / 2) that is just above full run cost range $67.50 to $54.00.

    That hides full run 6100 mfg cost at $100 and 6000 mfg cost at $83.75.

    And I did say full run, not before peak, at peak or run down. I said run end.

    Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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