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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Netflix Shares Hit All-Time High On Subscriber Growth [View article]

    Funny, that's what my ex wife said to me..That fit's the GNT !!!! Couldn't be happier remarried for over 15 years !!
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Actually it was OW who gets the credit. I am open to anything our group wants to do..

    The only chickens i count though are organic. So i guess JBT would be out :)
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    Exactly what do you mean? Like a specific stock or an investment strategy ?

    Talk to me brother !!

    FTNT ??????
    Apr 15, 2015. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]


    Much speculation abounds regarding China's gold holdings. They officially claim 1,054 tons as of April 2009. We suspected they might "re" announce their holdings again last year at this time as it was five years after their last announcement and China has a habit of "five year plans". Alisdair Mcleod believes they have 20,000 tons or more which very well may be the case, I can easily make a case their holdings are far in excess of 10,000 tons just from the data since 2009. In the words of our newest presidential candidate, "at this point, what difference does it make?". We'll get to this shortly.

    Before getting into the answer to this question, it might be better look at China's "bubbles" first.

    Money supply:

    As you can see, China's money supply has gone from 30 trillion yuan to over 120 trillion yuan in 8 years. The growth rate compounds out to about 18% annually. The following chart shows their money supply growth slowing drastically, China will need to reflate soon!

    Now let's look at China's Shanghai stock market, another bubble.

    Their market has virtually doubled in over 90 days, is this "normal"? Could this be a function of the market anticipating a reflation in money supply ...or maybe a devaluation of the yuan versus a marked up gold price? I'm not sure but putting their money supply together with market action tells me one of several things. Money supply must begin to grow more rapidly soon, the yuan will need to be devalued or their market values are unjustified, something must give. Add to this the fact China's economy (maybe with slightly cooked numbers) is growing slower than any time in the last six years and it becomes even more clear, China must do something soon. It is my guess and has been for quite a while, China will pull a page from FDR's playbook and revalue gold versus the yuan ...and the yuan versus other currencies from top to bottom.

    So, why exactly does it matter how much gold China has accumulated and what are the ramifications depending what the number is? First, if the number comes in "large" (it will), it means China "likes gold" and believes it to be a worthy monetary reserve asset. A large number would give gold China's "stamp of approval" so to speak.

    Next, we have the "mathematics" to the equation. If the number comes in anywhere near 10,000 tons, the natural question then becomes "where oh where did it all come from"? This is a VERY important question because as I've said many times before, gold can only come from current supply and also from above ground supplies in vaults. We know the total annual global supply (ex China and Russia) is about 2,200 tons of which China has chewed up a very large percentage over the last six years. Total global production has been 11,000 tons over the last six years, we know India and Russia have been importers, not to mention all the other geographical demand and jewelry. A number even close to 10,000 tons will raise the question of "how?", how could China have accumulated this much gold if the world is not producing enough to make the math work? In other words, if China bought virtually all of the global supply, what was used to satisfy the rest of the world's demand?

    The answer is easy and so will be the reaction. The gold MUST have come from Western vaults, namely N.Y. and London. It would also explain the refineries working 24/7 to melt 400 ounce bars and create kilo bars ...they were in fact heading to China! The big questions will be "which vaults?" and then of course "who's gold was it?". This really matters because a number of 10,000 tons or more would most likely mean the U.S. has dishoarded its gold ...and/or sold gold which belonged to someone else. It will bring up the rule of law if the gold is someone else's, it will bring up Constitutional law if the gold came from Ft. Knox, West Point or another depository. Please remember that five years ago or so, gold on the market was turning up which had very similar, if not identical "fingerprints" to our own "coin melt" from the 1930's. To me, this was as big a telltale sign as gold turning up in 1989 with the "Czar's stamp" on it.

    The report of 10,000 tons or more held by China will on its own drive gold prices exponential because of the logic that market participants will connect swiftly. Between the "stamp of approval" and "where did the gold come from", people will understand the West were the sellers. Does selling one's gold make your currency weaker? Of course it does. Does a weaker currency make it harder to accumulate gold? Again, yes. It is my contention that not only will a weaker currency (the dollar) make it harder to "catch up" and replenish the empty vaults, China will have incentive to "help this process along" by forcing the price higher and more difficult to accumulate.

    As mentioned and illustrated above, China has not been immune to the bubblemania gripping the world. They are living their own bubble and have exploded their own money supply yet now have the need to goose it again. If this reverses and becomes an outright contraction, China will be faced with the same dilemma the U.S. was in 1932-1933, they will need to re price gold higher in an effort to devalue their currency and reflate their own system. It is for this reason I believe they will "set" a price and bid for any and all gold similar to what FDR did when gold was revalued to $35.

    A holding's announcement and higher bid will do much for China. It will cement their position of financial strength and also lock many buyers out ...not to mention turn some holders into sellers. Thus increasing China's holdings even more. The higher gold price will act as a "filler" for many of the losses China will surely take from paper financial holdings. A higher gold price will be their internal financial penicillin assuring the financial wounds heal rather than spread and infect the entire body. Quite oversimplified but please understand this has been the remedy many times before throughout history, either willingly or dragged by the ears!

    Regards, Bill Holter

    Apr 15, 2015. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Any opinions on RSX ???
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    Read that China is heading for a Recession, but not sure what sparked today's rally.

    Thanks.. I will check back later tonight !!
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Nokia Seals $16.6B Alcatel-Lucent Deal [View article]
    Let's Go Rangers !!!

    Need i say any more??
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    I just read a local credit union offering 2% for 36 months..

    I can't believe i am going to even think that this might be a good investment. I miss those 7% CD'S !!!!
    Apr 14, 2015. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    Don't hold your breath !!!
    Apr 14, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    I know :)

    BTW how have you done in the challenge this year ? Your three might be the only ones in the positive..
    Apr 14, 2015. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPORTS, SPORTS, AND MORE SPORTS...CHAPTER 2... [View instapost]
    I actually got a sun burn...Gotta love it !!

    Heat helps my back as well, although i am a little sore today. But i will take it..
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Flash crashes are possible in both the Treasury and eventually the stock markets !!

    It seems that the FED has created a virus and as of now no cure !!

    So where do investors turn ??
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    THE "OTHER" 4G's

    No, we're not talking about 4G phones, nor God, gold, guns and grub. Today let's look at GE, Greece, and finish with a very interesting Germany and Gazprom. Last week GE shocked the market place by announcing they will sell their crown jewel GE Capital. Why would they do this? Isn't GE capital their growth engine? Isn't it their cash cow? What could they possibly be thinking? In my opinion they are "thinking" correctly, maybe a bit too late though.

    The plan is to offload the finance division and pay a very large cash dividend to shareholders. In my opinion they are calling "top" to the entire paper bubble now enveloping the world. Maybe some sanity circulated the halls of their Fairfield Ct. home office and they decided the stone has no more blood to be squeezed? Think about the macro situation, can interest rates go any lower from here? What will happen to their "book" when interest rates start to rise? What about their derivatives book? I believe it is possible someone looked at this and figured out either they will be defaulted on or they themselves cannot perform somewhere?

    In any case, the decision to "sell" was made. There are generally very few reasons to sell, far fewer than there are when deciding to buy something. Sometimes the decision to sell is "forced" by a margin call or other situations where there is no choice. For the most part, when a decision is made to sell something it is to profit or redeploy the capital elsewhere. In this case the decision is to pay a large dividend and reinvest part back into their other businesses. This will be looked at in retrospect as the final top to the market, I just wonder whether or not they will get to employ this strategy before the market falls apart and spoiling their plans? We will see.

    We've spoken so much about Greece lately, I don't want to be long winded here. Greece made their 460 million euro payment last week and were promptly "re" funded 1.3 billion euros via previously pledged funds fro ELA. The important thing this past week in my mind was the change of "tone". Mr. Varoufakis spoke of next month being "different" and Mr. Tsipras seemed to speak more boldly. One must wonder what exactly was discussed behind the closed doors with Mr. Putin? What did Russia offer if anything? You can bet a pipeline deal was discussed, I would also bet that Greece's "vote" was discussed. The sanctions which Russia now operates under are set to expire in June. They cannot be extended with Greece voting to make it unanimous. Will Greece leave or even be kicked out of the Eurozone? The other interesting points were the strength of tone used regarding WWII reparations from Germany and the "status" of debt incurred since 2012 which they now term "odious". Little Greece is becoming more than a thorn in the side of the West.

    The main topic for today is Germany and Russian energy giant Gazprom. Germany has apparently just ordered 100 Leopard 2 tanks "to ensure their troops are ready for action in response to Russian assertiveness". I have to wonder whether the addition of 100 tanks (a giant leap of a 45% increase) is really worth it considering the "signal" it sends. Germany gets roughly 30% of their natural gas from Russia, do they really want to flex more muscle with such a large supplier of theirs? I also wonder what the industrialists are thinking should this sour relations?

    Coincidentally, Russian energy giant Gazprom announced they will sell their 10.52% minority stake in German gas supplier Verbundntz gas (VNG). Gazprom's position when aligned with a 15.7% stake held by Wintershall served as a blocking position. With the stake's power diminished, Gazprom has decided to sell. The decision was also made last year to discontinue plans for the South Stream gas pipeline in favor of a route through Turkey ...and thus ultimately Greece

    Please understand the significance of this chess strategy. Turkey is a member of NATO, Greece is a member of the European Union. Doing business with either (or both) puts a potential wedge in NATO's unison and a "veto power" in the EU when it comes to renewing sanctions. Has Mr. Putin and Russia put themselves in this position purposely or is it just business? In my opinion Russia is simply taking the path of least resistance here which also has the "benefits" attached that come with both Turkey and Greece.

    The real head scratcher in all of this is Germany. If you recall, they have been repatriating their gold from the New York Fed's custody over the last two+ years. It was said they had "total trust" in the Fed but no longer had a need to store the gold outside of their country ...and the reaches of the big bad Russians. Now they order more tanks because of the Russian perceived threat. Will they continue to repatriate gold or will they stop and use the Russian threat as their reasoning?

    Another area where Germany is in a sticky spot is with Greece. Will they continue to push austerity (which is actually senseless because Greece already owes too much)? How will Germany handle Greece's demands for WWII reparation? Will they push for a Greek exit from the EU? And of course one must wonder about the pipeline that will most likely go from Turkey towards Germany and Eastern Europe, now they have to wonder about the continuation of Russia selling them the gas and then the transmission through Greece.

    Germany now has pressure from so many different directions you almost have to feel sorry for them. If I had to guess, it would not be surprising to see Germany pivot away from the U.S. and toward Russia and the Chinese. This would only make sense as historically Germany and Russia have been very big trading partners and live in the same neighborhood to boot. We may see a hint of what is to come as we approach June, remember, the current sanctions on Russia will run out and need to be renewed to continue. Who does what and when, will be very interesting indeed!

    Regards, Bill Holter

    Apr 14, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    Why the sarcasm ? Are the markets on fire this year? Give me break here. Long term you will be sitting on a decent correction soon.

    The "IT FIB" has called it !!
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]

    So are you buying now ?
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment