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  • Impac Mortgage - A Growth And Value Story [View article]
    Good article. Very thorough analysis that provides a good balance of positives and negatives.
    Nov 19, 2012. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage Holdings: 8 Red Flags [View article]
    You're short this stock so obviously, your analysis is biased. IMH has a market cap of merely $122M. Back in 2004, IMH traded at a high of $272 during the real estate boom. It's obviously trading at a small percentage of that now but if there's a strong housing recovery, this will be a stock that could skyrocket.
    Nov 13, 2012. 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
    1) Pinterest is dying and Twitter is a whole different animal than FB. The use case for Twitter is completely different than FB. Instagram is part of FB.

    2) Biggest thing FB has going for it is all the social connections it created for it's 1B users. Biggest barrier to entry for a new social network (i.e. Google+) is that nobody wants to spend their valuable time re-friending everyone on their FB unless it's like a completely new concept that's worth the effort. G+ found this out painfully.
    Oct 9, 2012. 12:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: Reiterating My Buy Based on Global Hunter Report [View article]
    Great article. All very valid points. I plan to buy some CCME tomorrow.
    Feb 18, 2011. 05:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Going Long Bank of America [View article]
    Clearly, the author has no idea about BAC or how the banking industry works. It's easy to explain the "worst case scenario" but the probability of that actually happening is about as likely as the 2nd Great Depression happening in the next year. Which of course, is possible, but not likely.

    Did you not see the recently judge's ruling that decreased BAC's potential losses from $352 to $31 billion from a group of investors?

    This is just the tip of the iceberg. $31 billion is now the WORST case scenario for BAC -- more likely far less. BAC has plenty of time to work these losses out over the next 5+ years.

    I'm boggled at how many so-called experts seem to feel they know everything and give 100% credibility to every lawsuit that is claimed only to find out that it's far from the truth.

    I can sue any company for $351 billion too -- but that doesn't mean I will get a single dime.

    I don't claim that I understand the merits of the case against BAC -- but neither should you. Clearly, the Judge presiding over the secruitization lawsuit does and she already ruled that BAC is not liable for over 90% of the amount being sued for.
    Nov 10, 2010. 05:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - These Stocks Should Not Be Traded (3/31/10) [View article]
    I think FNM, FRE, and AIG are just trading vehicles for daytraders. I really doubt anyone actually buy the stock based on fundamentals or "value". At least with WAMU or LEH, people invested based on the value they might get thru the bankruptcy court. FNM, FRE, AIG don't even have that.
    Apr 1, 2010. 03:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • E*TRADE Financial Corporation Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    lucky lenny, you forgot to mention:

    * ETFC has deferred income tax assets of $1.4 BILLION, which they plan to take full advantage of during the quarters in which they post losses. They have 20 years to use up this tax asset.

    * Layton said that looking at (nearly) the entire month of October, the credit losses looks to be down to slightly-down from Q3. That's a good sign and should result in further decreases in loan loss provisions and charge offs. I would venture to guess the Q4 loan loss provision to be around $300M.

    * Seasonally, Q4 is a strong quarter for E*Trade's brokerage division which means higher DARTs. I would venture to guess that ETFC will end up with DARTs of around 235,000. This means an increase in revenue from commissions and fees from Q3.

    * About $170M annual decrease in interests due to the debt swap of the Citadel notes in Q3 should be fully taken advantage of in Q4. That means savings of $40-$45M in interest savings in Q4.

    So in conclusion, here's my estimates for Q4:

    - $40M to $50M decrease in loan loss provisions
    - $40M to $45M decrease in interest payments due to debt swap
    - $30M increase in revenue from increased DART

    So E*Trade lost $59M in Q3. With the above improvements, does that mean E*Trade will finally post a small profit in Q4? What am I missing?
    Oct 28, 2009. 05:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E*Trade: Very Undervalued [View article]
    Based on the Mid-Quarter Report from ETFC, I did some estimates and came up with the following estimated net income for Q3 2009. I came up with a $10M profit, or break-even $0.00 on an EPS level. The EPS estimate by analysts for ETFC is currently -$0.10 (ranges from -$0.03 to -$0.21).

    * assumed $375M charge off (mid-quarter report said range was $350M to 375M)
    * assumed revenue in Sept is same as avg of July/Aug (there's the same number of trading days in Sept as Aug).
    * assumed $11M recoveries (using derived % of recoveries from previous quarterly reports)
    * assumed interest expense continues to decrease as ETFC continued to reduce debt levels (via conversion, etc).
    * assumed 31% income tax rate
    * assumed no one-time charges
    * assumed other-expense same as Q2

    (in thousands)
    total revenue $885,000.00
    cost of revenue ($57,525.00)

    gross profit $827,475.00

    total operating expense ($282,000.00)
    interest expense ($158,000.00)
    charge offs ($375,000.00)
    recoveries $11,000.00
    other expense ($8,000.00)

    income before tax $15,475.00
    income tax expense ($4,797.25)

    net income $10,677.75
    Oct 23, 2009. 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment