When accounting for inflation, retail sales have roughly recovered to pre-recession levels. But when accounting for population for growth and inflation, we see that retail sales are still well below the pre-recession peak.
We'll see if the current spending splurge by consumers is sustainable in the face of tax increases. The increase in the payroll tax in particular is going to hit the profligate masses especially hard.
Massive Dilution Coming For National Bank Of Greece Shareholders [View article]
Thanks for your research, SR. I haven't been following NBG recently and am trying to get back up to speed. What is status of Finansbank and how much of a value cushion does it provide?
National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
"The basic proposal also cover capital requirements for banks by 60% to common shares and 40% with CoCos, but if they have positive equity.
Where have negative equity is more common shares issued and fewer CoCos, as the vanishing of negative equity will be conducted solely through ordinary shares.
That is, a bank with negative equity 1.6 billion needed funds 4 billion: The first 1.6 billion will be covered solely by common stock. Of the remaining 2.4 billion, € 960 million will be covered by CoCos and 1.44 billion in common shares.
If the troika give the green light to one of the above solutions, then the banks will be able to antilogisoun up 21.5% of the loss on Greek government bonds and will take up to 10 billion less capital. This will not only facilitate the achievement of the minimum participation (10%) individuals, but will also act as a powerful ... sweetener to attract fresh money."
Have you tried running the numbers on NBG using this formula?
Ascent Solar: Can It Ascend To Zagg Status? [View article]
A few comments... - You neglected to mention that the one order the company has (50,000 units) is from the same company that bought stock at 50c early this year so they are a related party.
- The comparison with ZAGG is not meaningful. Almost everyone with an iphone protects it with some kind of case. In contrast, the market for solar charges is a tiny fraction of the iphone market. Who wants to bulk up their sleek iphone with an ugly solar case that adds marginal utility? For the vast majority of iphone owners, the phone is one of three places nearly all the time: in the pocket, in the hand or plugged in--a solar charger is not helpful in any of these locations. This is a tiny niche market and one that has numerous competitors.
- The company's sales were less than $200k last quarter and have been shrinking dramatically.
- The company is not debt free as you claim but has over $6 million in long-term debt.
Tanzanian Royalty Continues To Show Excellent Drill Results [View article]
The gold stock universe has changed. MOST producers have small hedge books because that's what investors want. Obviously, explorers don't have hedges since they have no cash flows to hedge so TRX hardly stands out on that score. IF TRX is somehow able to finance construction of a mine at Buckreef, the banks will undoubtedly require some hedging. Your comment about hedging has no basis in reality.
I don't even know who Jon Carnes is but if he is short this bloated pig, I admire his sense of value. But it doesn't take a genius to recognize that TRX is quite possibly the most over-valued, over-promoted stock in the gold sector.
Instead of spewing mindless epithets, how about explaining why TRX is a good value?
Tanzanian Royalty Continues To Show Excellent Drill Results [View article]
A few questions for you... 1. Do you realize that TRX only owns 55% of Buckreef? 2. Have you looked at the PEA? The NPV of the project is based on an inflated gold price (compared to the gold price peers are using) and even then only achieved an NPV5% of $392mm PRETAX. And this is not adjusted for TRX's 55% stake. Care to explain how this makes a company with a $400mm+ market cap attractive? 3. Why hasn't the company released the full PEA so that it can be scrutinized?
4. You've expressed high regard for Sinclair. He may be a brilliant gold trader and strategist but what makes him qualified to evaluate geology or to build and operate a mine? 5. Why does the company spend more than $1mm a quarter on G&A? For whose benefit is this company being run? 6. Have you considered any comparables? Let's be generous and assume Buckreef is 3mm ounces, 1.65mm net to TRX. With an EV of over $400mm, that's $240 per ounce. Even if we double Buckreef to 6mm, it's still $120 per ounce. Yet a basket of comparables is trading at $39 per ounce. http://bit.ly/KZSWhP
With the steep drop in share prices, the gold mining sector is chock full of bargains. TRX is not one of them.
4 Good Candidates For Cash-Secured Puts [View article]
Selling puts on HNR seems like a bad idea. Zero production outside Venezuela and they're bleeding massive amounts of cash. It could be worth $20 if they monetize Venezuela but they have had ample time to do that and haven't pulled the trigger. The situation there only deteriorates. Absent a deal, this will sink lower and lower. So you are limiting your upside and exposing yourself to the most likely outcome which is more downside.
Unmasking The Harbin Electric Buyout Drama [View article]
Huanjo, You wrote: "5) The CDB does not want any disclosure with regards to HRBN - a prerequisite if they are to be able to trade HRBN stock/options without being accused of insider trading."
Please elaborate on this statement. What is the requirement and how have they satisfied it?
The idea that CDB is cahoots with Yang makes a lot of sense. If nothing else, they have $50 million of collateral to protect.
Puda Coal Chairman Ming Zhao: Time To Expropriate The Expropriator [View article]
Frazer Frost is overdue for a PCAOB inspection which is required every three years. Frazer Frost has never been inspected; it's predecessor, Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, was inspected in early 2008. pcaobus.org/Inspection... Interestingly, the letter reproduced here is signed by Dean Yamagata who just happens to be the lead on the HRBN audit according to your report. Yamagata was named in the Cease and Desist Order from the SEC. Yamagata is "denied the privilege of appearing or practicing before the Commission as an accountant" for at least two years. www.sec.gov/litigation... ______________________
findarticles.com/p/art...;content INSPECTIONS Sarbanes-Oxley Section 104 requires the PCAOB to inspect all registered public accounting firms. If a registered firm provides more than 100 audit reports, the PCAOB must inspect it at least annually. All other registered public accounting firms are subject to investigations every three years. Both U.S. and non-U.S. registered public accounting firms must adhere to the board's and SEC's rules. _____________________ www.chinaaccountingblo... Frazer Frost was formed on January 1, 2010 through a merger of California based Moore Stephens Wirth Frazer and Tolbert (MSWFT) with Frost PLLC of Arkansas. Frazer Frost is a member firm of Moore Stephens, the 12th largest global accounting network. The merger was done on a trial basis, and on November 17th, 2010 it was reported that Frost PLLC had called off the merger, the timing curiously close to the RINO announcements. How they will unwind the firm is unclear.
Led by Frazier Frost, Moore Stephens had climbed to fifth place among auditors of Chinese companies listed in the U.S., just behind the Big Four. Frazer Frost audited 15 Chinese companies, 1 on the NYSE, 12 on NASDAQ and 2 OTCBB, earning fees of $6.1 million. ... Frazer Frost does not have an office in China, and has no staff permanently based in China, although Woo informed me that they have staff working in China all year around. All of the staff are assigned from the California office, all are Chinese, speak, read and write Chinese, and have been educated in the US.
A 2007 PCAOB inspection of MSWFT found no issues, nor is there any indication of issues in similar 2007 inspection of Frost. Both firms were due for an inspection in 2010, which presumably would be of Frazer Frost. _________________________
Puda Coal Chairman Ming Zhao: Time To Expropriate The Expropriator [View article]
WSJ article today on SEC going after D&T over Longtop. online.wsj.com/article... Here's an interesting quote:
"Deloitte could potentially face penalties from either side. Mr. Gillis, of Peking University, said the U.S. could revoke Deloitte China's PCAOB registration so that it could no longer audit Chinese firms listed in the U.S."
This got me thinking about HRBN. Speaking from complete ignorance here but If the SEC and NASDAQ are not ready to act, perhaps the PCAOB might be? Have you presented your findings to them? Frazer is the linchpin (or one of many) to this whole scheme.
China MediaExpress: The Most Undervalued Stock Poised to Profit From China's Emerging Middle Class [View article]
I don't think you've calculated the diluted share count correctly. Earn out shares are as follows: 2010 7mm if net income is greater than $83.5mm 2011 7mm if net income is greater than $130.2mm
There were 33.3mm outstanding as of 5/5. Add 1.5mm for the Starr warrants, 3mm for the convertible preferred and 1.5mm for insider warrants and we're now up to 39.3mm currently diluted shares.
Should they hit their NI target for this year, the diluted share count will be 47.3mm, not 40.5mm as you stated.
Regardless, the forward p/e is still less than 7, a very attractive number given the high growth and high margins.
This is a fantastic recovery. ONLY 400k++ initial claims every single report. I'm sure doubling up here right near the all-time high will prove very profitable as the American consumer is unstoppable and momentum lasts forever.
You're looking in the rear view mirror. The surprise has been that retail spending has held up as well as it has. But now the sector is wildly overbought and is pricing in a recovery that isn't there. - Stimulus spending has peaked; it's downhill from here. - Unemployment will remain high for far longer than people anticipate. Those jobs in construction, mortgage, manufacturing etc that have been lost in the downturn are gone for good. - Housing is not recovering. Supply is still way too high and will take years to work off. - Interest rates are headed up thanks to exploding supply of government debt. - Oil prices are strong and heading higher, a tax on the consumer. - Speaking of taxes, they're heading up, particularly on the wealthy. - Health care costs continue to spiral out of control, another "tax" on discretionary income. - Consumer balance sheets are a disaster. The savings rate is in the low-single digits. Consumers will need to retrench before long and start saving for retirement. - Event risk is not being priced in. 1. Greece may be "solved"...for the next week or two but the underlying stresses on the PIIGS are still there. 2. Then there's risk with Iran. Call me crazy but an attack on their nuclear facilities just might have a negative effect on the markets. 3. The budget situation in states like California (which is much larger than Greece, btw) are hopeless. Major tax increases and service cuts are just beginning even if there isn't an event like a failed muni auction.
I am shorting the XRT pairing it with longs in other sectors and countries. XRT has momentum but the fundamental headwinds are of gale force strength. IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME.
Retail Sales Recovery [View article]
When accounting for inflation, retail sales have roughly recovered to pre-recession levels. But when accounting for population for growth and inflation, we see that retail sales are still well below the pre-recession peak.
We'll see if the current spending splurge by consumers is sustainable in the face of tax increases. The increase in the payroll tax in particular is going to hit the profligate masses especially hard.
Massive Dilution Coming For National Bank Of Greece Shareholders [View article]
National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
Where have negative equity is more common shares issued and fewer CoCos, as the vanishing of negative equity will be conducted solely through ordinary shares.
That is, a bank with negative equity 1.6 billion needed funds 4 billion: The first 1.6 billion will be covered solely by common stock. Of the remaining 2.4 billion, € 960 million will be covered by CoCos and 1.44 billion in common shares.
If the troika give the green light to one of the above solutions, then the banks will be able to antilogisoun up 21.5% of the loss on Greek government bonds and will take up to 10 billion less capital. This will not only facilitate the achievement of the minimum participation (10%) individuals, but will also act as a powerful ... sweetener to attract fresh money."
Have you tried running the numbers on NBG using this formula?
Ascent Solar: Can It Ascend To Zagg Status? [View article]
- You neglected to mention that the one order the company has (50,000 units) is from the same company that bought stock at 50c early this year so they are a related party.
- The comparison with ZAGG is not meaningful. Almost everyone with an iphone protects it with some kind of case. In contrast, the market for solar charges is a tiny fraction of the iphone market. Who wants to bulk up their sleek iphone with an ugly solar case that adds marginal utility? For the vast majority of iphone owners, the phone is one of three places nearly all the time: in the pocket, in the hand or plugged in--a solar charger is not helpful in any of these locations. This is a tiny niche market and one that has numerous competitors.
- The company's sales were less than $200k last quarter and have been shrinking dramatically.
- The company is not debt free as you claim but has over $6 million in long-term debt.
Tanzanian Royalty Continues To Show Excellent Drill Results [View article]
I don't even know who Jon Carnes is but if he is short this bloated pig, I admire his sense of value. But it doesn't take a genius to recognize that TRX is quite possibly the most over-valued, over-promoted stock in the gold sector.
Instead of spewing mindless epithets, how about explaining why TRX is a good value?
Tanzanian Royalty Continues To Show Excellent Drill Results [View article]
Tanzanian Royalty Continues To Show Excellent Drill Results [View article]
1. Do you realize that TRX only owns 55% of Buckreef?
2. Have you looked at the PEA? The NPV of the project is based on an inflated gold price (compared to the gold price peers are using) and even then only achieved an NPV5% of $392mm PRETAX. And this is not adjusted for TRX's 55% stake. Care to explain how this makes a company with a $400mm+ market cap attractive?
3. Why hasn't the company released the full PEA so that it can be scrutinized?
4. You've expressed high regard for Sinclair. He may be a brilliant gold trader and strategist but what makes him qualified to evaluate geology or to build and operate a mine?
5. Why does the company spend more than $1mm a quarter on G&A? For whose benefit is this company being run?
6. Have you considered any comparables? Let's be generous and assume Buckreef is 3mm ounces, 1.65mm net to TRX. With an EV of over $400mm, that's $240 per ounce. Even if we double Buckreef to 6mm, it's still $120 per ounce. Yet a basket of comparables is trading at $39 per ounce.
http://bit.ly/KZSWhP
With the steep drop in share prices, the gold mining sector is chock full of bargains. TRX is not one of them.
4 Good Candidates For Cash-Secured Puts [View article]
Unmasking The Harbin Electric Buyout Drama [View article]
You wrote: "5) The CDB does not want any disclosure with regards to HRBN - a prerequisite if they are to be able to trade HRBN stock/options without being accused of insider trading."
Please elaborate on this statement. What is the requirement and how have they satisfied it?
The idea that CDB is cahoots with Yang makes a lot of sense. If nothing else, they have $50 million of collateral to protect.
Puda Coal Chairman Ming Zhao: Time To Expropriate The Expropriator [View article]
pcaobus.org/Inspection...
Interestingly, the letter reproduced here is signed by Dean Yamagata who just happens to be the lead on the HRBN audit according to your report. Yamagata was named in the Cease and Desist Order from the SEC. Yamagata is "denied the privilege of appearing or practicing before the Commission as an accountant" for at least two years.
www.sec.gov/litigation...
______________________
findarticles.com/p/art...;content
INSPECTIONS Sarbanes-Oxley Section 104 requires the PCAOB to inspect all registered public accounting firms. If a registered firm provides more than 100 audit reports, the PCAOB must inspect it at least annually. All other registered public accounting firms are subject to investigations every three years. Both U.S. and non-U.S. registered public accounting firms must adhere to the board's and SEC's rules.
_____________________
www.chinaaccountingblo...
Frazer Frost was formed on January 1, 2010 through a merger of California based Moore Stephens Wirth Frazer and Tolbert (MSWFT) with Frost PLLC of Arkansas. Frazer Frost is a member firm of Moore Stephens, the 12th largest global accounting network. The merger was done on a trial basis, and on November 17th, 2010 it was reported that Frost PLLC had called off the merger, the timing curiously close to the RINO announcements. How they will unwind the firm is unclear.
Led by Frazier Frost, Moore Stephens had climbed to fifth place among auditors of Chinese companies listed in the U.S., just behind the Big Four. Frazer Frost audited 15 Chinese companies, 1 on the NYSE, 12 on NASDAQ and 2 OTCBB, earning fees of $6.1 million.
...
Frazer Frost does not have an office in China, and has no staff permanently based in China, although Woo informed me that they have staff working in China all year around. All of the staff are assigned from the California office, all are Chinese, speak, read and write Chinese, and have been educated in the US.
A 2007 PCAOB inspection of MSWFT found no issues, nor is there any indication of issues in similar 2007 inspection of Frost. Both firms were due for an inspection in 2010, which presumably would be of Frazer Frost.
_________________________
Puda Coal Chairman Ming Zhao: Time To Expropriate The Expropriator [View article]
online.wsj.com/article...
Here's an interesting quote:
"Deloitte could potentially face penalties from either side. Mr. Gillis, of Peking University, said the U.S. could revoke Deloitte China's PCAOB registration so that it could no longer audit Chinese firms listed in the U.S."
This got me thinking about HRBN. Speaking from complete ignorance here but If the SEC and NASDAQ are not ready to act, perhaps the PCAOB might be? Have you presented your findings to them? Frazer is the linchpin (or one of many) to this whole scheme.
Red Flags at China MediaExpress: Significantly Mismatched Filings in China, U.S. [View article]
Care to comment on this?
messages.finance.yahoo...
China MediaExpress: The Most Undervalued Stock Poised to Profit From China's Emerging Middle Class [View article]
Earn out shares are as follows:
2010 7mm if net income is greater than $83.5mm
2011 7mm if net income is greater than $130.2mm
There were 33.3mm outstanding as of 5/5.
Add 1.5mm for the Starr warrants, 3mm for the convertible preferred and 1.5mm for insider warrants and we're now up to 39.3mm currently diluted shares.
Should they hit their NI target for this year, the diluted share count will be 47.3mm, not 40.5mm as you stated.
Regardless, the forward p/e is still less than 7, a very attractive number given the high growth and high margins.
Disclosure: Long
Watching the Retail Data [View instapost]
Watching the Retail Data [View instapost]
- Stimulus spending has peaked; it's downhill from here.
- Unemployment will remain high for far longer than people anticipate. Those jobs in construction, mortgage, manufacturing etc that have been lost in the downturn are gone for good.
- Housing is not recovering. Supply is still way too high and will take years to work off.
- Interest rates are headed up thanks to exploding supply of government debt.
- Oil prices are strong and heading higher, a tax on the consumer.
- Speaking of taxes, they're heading up, particularly on the wealthy.
- Health care costs continue to spiral out of control, another "tax" on discretionary income.
- Consumer balance sheets are a disaster. The savings rate is in the low-single digits. Consumers will need to retrench before long and start saving for retirement.
- Event risk is not being priced in. 1. Greece may be "solved"...for the next week or two but the underlying stresses on the PIIGS are still there. 2. Then there's risk with Iran. Call me crazy but an attack on their nuclear facilities just might have a negative effect on the markets. 3. The budget situation in states like California (which is much larger than Greece, btw) are hopeless. Major tax increases and service cuts are just beginning even if there isn't an event like a failed muni auction.
I am shorting the XRT pairing it with longs in other sectors and countries. XRT has momentum but the fundamental headwinds are of gale force strength. IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME.