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zato

zato
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  • Starbucks Is Now Selling Ice To Eskimos [View article]
    Yo, it's Col "O" mbia.
    Aug 12 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Fuels The Coming Inflation [View article]
    Your comments about inflation are just as preposterous. Inflation is here NOW. MIT's Billion Price project shows inflation consistently running at a 2-3% rate and a 6% annualized rate last month. It is diverging sharply from the heavily scrubbed CPI, but even that measure is showing inflation. What's interesting about the BPP is that if anything, we should expect inflation in the BPP to be LESS than the CPI. BPP, which measures online goods prices, is skewed to areas where we expect decreasing prices (electronics, apparel) and is very under-weighted in areas that are experiencing the highest price increases (health care services, education, food, energy and housing). And no measure of inflation captures the ridiculous asset price bubbles that the Fed has carefully and purposefully engineered.
    May 8 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Fuels The Coming Inflation [View article]
    It is truly frightening that a former Fed governor has put forth such a preposterous definition of money printing. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart once said of pornography, "I know it when I see it." The same could be said for money printing. So let me get this straight. The treasury sells securities to the banks. The banks turnaround and sell them shortly thereafter to the Federal Reserve (after tacking on a generous markup, of course), and this is not money printing? Would it be money printing if the Fed bought them directly from the Treasury and if not, what would you call it? By your logic, the Fed cannot print money by DEFINITION because it cannot control bank lending. This is preposterous. Perhaps the Fed should drop cash from helicopters; as long as the masses deposit it in the banks, it's not money printing, right?

    As for your jabs at the "experiment" comment, what is it if not an experiment? If there is no cost to 3 trillion dollars of balance sheet expansion, then why hasn't the Fed expanded the balance sheet like this before?

    QE is about two things: (1) bailing out banksters and (2) enabling Washington to kick the fiscal can down the road. You know it. I know it. Deep down every investor with half a brain knows it. But as long as your Fed cronies keep blasting the music, the Chucky Princes of the world will keep dancing, dancing fools that they are.
    May 8 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity And The Dark Underbelly Of The PPA Model [View article]
    If you think you can extract 98% of the sun's energy hitting a solar thermal system on a 30 degree winter day and convert it to useful energy (water/space heating), I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Apr 21 02:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity And The Dark Underbelly Of The PPA Model [View article]
    >>Instead, by using the same roof space (duct work was already in place) with solar thermal could provide whole house HVAC, including hot water, eliminate 80-90% of heating bills, and reduce GHG-emissions by 80% or more. <<

    Really? Let's see some evidence for this claim. I've been short SCTY and continue to view it negatively, but let's be fair. Those numbers don't look remotely realistic.
    Apr 21 12:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum: Permian Basin Pure Play's Stock Is A Bargain [View article]
    Enterprise value is almost $400 million, a large premium to the PV-10. And it's not cheap on a production basis at over $100k per flowing boe.
    Feb 21 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Short: Midway Gold Should Be Half Its Current Price [View article]
    Among other reasons, he has talked about it in interviews.
    Feb 20 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Short: Midway Gold Should Be Half Its Current Price [View article]
    "I do not think any of them warrant much in additional valuation. No one is investing in Midway on the basis of anything but the Pan project."

    Um, ever hear of a little company called Barrick? Midway is partners with them on a project called Spring Valley with a 25% interest. The deposit has a resource of over 4 million ounces and Midway is carried to production. That's 1 million ounces net to Midway. Barrick has already spent over $38 million on the project so they're serious about bringing it to production. You don't think this warrants any additional valuation? Well, this shareholder does. So does Bill Fleckenstein, who is a shareholder as well.
    Feb 20 09:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growlife - The No. 1 Stock In The Marijuana Market [View article]
    Um, dude, your table of tiers is a complete joke. You fail to account for all the dilutive securities these companies have issued. Consider FSPM. You say they have 2.35 million shares outstanding. Fair enough, but when calculating the enterprise value, you did not include the 1.5 million Series A preferreds which convert on a 100-1 basis. That's an additional 150 million shares. That's a little more than 2.35 million don't you think?

    The same came be said of probably every stock on your list, even your beloved PHOT.
    The small print matters!
    Feb 5 02:49 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Ford Shale: Economic Side Effects Of Downspacing [View article]
    Excellent article. Just to clarify, in the Marathon example, are the reduced production rates true of all wells in the downspaced field or just the incremental infill-drilled wells? If the these are infill-drilled wells, doesn't that imply that the original wells will see full 80-acre spacing production which imply in much higher full-field NPV than your calculations?
    Jan 24 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Continued Strong Earnings Will Drive It Over $90 - Part II [View article]
    Isaiah 5:20
    Jan 16 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Lift For Canadian Solar, Suntech [View article]
    Epic timing, dude. When's your next SA article?
    Nov 7 12:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Lift For Canadian Solar, Suntech [View article]
    With regard to Suntech, you have no idea what you are talking about. Suntech's China subsidiary Wuxi Suntech owes roughly $1.7 billion to a group of Chinese banks. Wuxi Suntech is in bankruptcy and Shufeng is buying most of the solar-producing factories at around 30c on the dollar. Suntech Holdings, the cayman islands parent company listed on the NYSE, will not receive ANY of the money paid by Shufeng.

    Let's consider what's left of Suntech Holdings. Suntech's ownership of the China sub has effectively been severed: Wuxi Suntech Holdings has a JV left that no one wants, offset still by massive debt at the local level. At the parent level, the company has the interest in the European solar farms that is not worth the debt used to build them (see the Italy news). Against this, they have $540 million of bonds that are now more than six months past their maturity date. The only reason that the majority of bondholders haven't sought judgments against the company is they know there is nowhere near $540 million worth of value at the holding company and if they press their case, they are likely to end up with nothing. As a sanity check, look at where the bonds are trading. Less than 20c on the dollar. That is SEVERE distress.

    And that is the great irony. Suntech Holdings' worthlessness is actually keeping it out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since there is nothing to protect. But make no mistake. STP is completely worthless and anyone who follows your advice will find that out the hard way.
    Nov 5 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett And Klarman Not Buying, Time To Sell? [View article]
    Nice non sequitur. You detail reasons why the stock market is overvalued and vulnerable to a fall, but then your suggestion is to sell gold. Huh? Did you notice that gold has already corrected this year? Has it occurred to you that gold does not have, nor has it ever had, a p/e?
    Sep 30 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Is An Excellent Short Candidate [View article]
    You write: "Capex is relatively low at $125 million, or $69 million attributable to Tanzanian Royalty Exploration. "

    Where are you getting this figure? The PEA released in 2012 shows four possible development options. Each one outlines an initial capex requirement of at least $230 million. Further, all scenarios require an additional capital outlay of roughly $200 million in year 6. So the capex requirement is certainly not anywhere close to the $125 million figure you cited.

    This is an extremely high risk project to finance. The capital requirement is large and the economics are marginal even at $1,500 gold and very sensitive to the gold price. Even if TRE is somehow able to finance its portion of the bill, there is no guarantee that Stamico (gov't of Tanzania) will fund its share, which amounts to over $100 million upfront. Even under the highly optimistic assumptions in the PEA, the project is still cash flow NEGATIVE after SIX YEARS??? What if it comes in over budget like every other mine? What if operating costs continue to escalate? Stamico is then owner of a giant money pit. There's a reason governments typically take royalties off the top or taxes off the back-end. Owning a mine is highly speculative. Especially this one.
    Never forget that after years of drilling, Iamgold wrote down it's investment of over $100 million and walked away from Buckreef. When the project was auctioned off by the government, TRE was the highest bidder at a mere $3 million. That's about what it's worth.
    Sep 10 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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