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zato

zato
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  • Callon Petroleum: Permian Basin Pure Play's Stock Is A Bargain [View article]
    Enterprise value is almost $400 million, a large premium to the PV-10. And it's not cheap on a production basis at over $100k per flowing boe.
    Feb 21 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Short: Midway Gold Should Be Half Its Current Price [View article]
    Among other reasons, he has talked about it in interviews.
    Feb 20 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Short: Midway Gold Should Be Half Its Current Price [View article]
    "I do not think any of them warrant much in additional valuation. No one is investing in Midway on the basis of anything but the Pan project."

    Um, ever hear of a little company called Barrick? Midway is partners with them on a project called Spring Valley with a 25% interest. The deposit has a resource of over 4 million ounces and Midway is carried to production. That's 1 million ounces net to Midway. Barrick has already spent over $38 million on the project so they're serious about bringing it to production. You don't think this warrants any additional valuation? Well, this shareholder does. So does Bill Fleckenstein, who is a shareholder as well.
    Feb 20 09:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growlife - The No. 1 Stock In The Marijuana Market [View article]
    Um, dude, your table of tiers is a complete joke. You fail to account for all the dilutive securities these companies have issued. Consider FSPM. You say they have 2.35 million shares outstanding. Fair enough, but when calculating the enterprise value, you did not include the 1.5 million Series A preferreds which convert on a 100-1 basis. That's an additional 150 million shares. That's a little more than 2.35 million don't you think?

    The same came be said of probably every stock on your list, even your beloved PHOT.
    The small print matters!
    Feb 5 02:49 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Ford Shale: Economic Side Effects Of Downspacing [View article]
    Excellent article. Just to clarify, in the Marathon example, are the reduced production rates true of all wells in the downspaced field or just the incremental infill-drilled wells? If the these are infill-drilled wells, doesn't that imply that the original wells will see full 80-acre spacing production which imply in much higher full-field NPV than your calculations?
    Jan 24 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Continued Strong Earnings Will Drive It Over $90 - Part II [View article]
    Isaiah 5:20
    Jan 16 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Lift For Canadian Solar, Suntech [View article]
    Epic timing, dude. When's your next SA article?
    Nov 7 12:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Lift For Canadian Solar, Suntech [View article]
    With regard to Suntech, you have no idea what you are talking about. Suntech's China subsidiary Wuxi Suntech owes roughly $1.7 billion to a group of Chinese banks. Wuxi Suntech is in bankruptcy and Shufeng is buying most of the solar-producing factories at around 30c on the dollar. Suntech Holdings, the cayman islands parent company listed on the NYSE, will not receive ANY of the money paid by Shufeng.

    Let's consider what's left of Suntech Holdings. Suntech's ownership of the China sub has effectively been severed: Wuxi Suntech Holdings has a JV left that no one wants, offset still by massive debt at the local level. At the parent level, the company has the interest in the European solar farms that is not worth the debt used to build them (see the Italy news). Against this, they have $540 million of bonds that are now more than six months past their maturity date. The only reason that the majority of bondholders haven't sought judgments against the company is they know there is nowhere near $540 million worth of value at the holding company and if they press their case, they are likely to end up with nothing. As a sanity check, look at where the bonds are trading. Less than 20c on the dollar. That is SEVERE distress.

    And that is the great irony. Suntech Holdings' worthlessness is actually keeping it out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since there is nothing to protect. But make no mistake. STP is completely worthless and anyone who follows your advice will find that out the hard way.
    Nov 5 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett And Klarman Not Buying, Time To Sell? [View article]
    Nice non sequitur. You detail reasons why the stock market is overvalued and vulnerable to a fall, but then your suggestion is to sell gold. Huh? Did you notice that gold has already corrected this year? Has it occurred to you that gold does not have, nor has it ever had, a p/e?
    Sep 30 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Is An Excellent Short Candidate [View article]
    You write: "Capex is relatively low at $125 million, or $69 million attributable to Tanzanian Royalty Exploration. "

    Where are you getting this figure? The PEA released in 2012 shows four possible development options. Each one outlines an initial capex requirement of at least $230 million. Further, all scenarios require an additional capital outlay of roughly $200 million in year 6. So the capex requirement is certainly not anywhere close to the $125 million figure you cited.

    This is an extremely high risk project to finance. The capital requirement is large and the economics are marginal even at $1,500 gold and very sensitive to the gold price. Even if TRE is somehow able to finance its portion of the bill, there is no guarantee that Stamico (gov't of Tanzania) will fund its share, which amounts to over $100 million upfront. Even under the highly optimistic assumptions in the PEA, the project is still cash flow NEGATIVE after SIX YEARS??? What if it comes in over budget like every other mine? What if operating costs continue to escalate? Stamico is then owner of a giant money pit. There's a reason governments typically take royalties off the top or taxes off the back-end. Owning a mine is highly speculative. Especially this one.
    Never forget that after years of drilling, Iamgold wrote down it's investment of over $100 million and walked away from Buckreef. When the project was auctioned off by the government, TRE was the highest bidder at a mere $3 million. That's about what it's worth.
    Sep 10 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sources Suggest Suntech Power's Convertible Bondholders Won't Get Any Money From The Restructuring [View article]
    Adam,
    Hear anything new in bond land? The extended forbearance deadline, June 28th, is rapidly approaching.
    Jun 26 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow Death Of Bitcoin And Gold [View article]
    Great headline. Kinda of like saying, "the decline of Zimbabwe and Switzerland." Gold is a pillar of sand, eh? Gold will be MONEY long after the currency we now call the dollar is a distant memory.
    Jun 26 11:55 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Everyone Knew The Gold Plunge Was Coming [View article]
    Just one question for you. Is ANYTHING fixed? Unemployment? Fixed (as long as you don't look at labor participation rates) . Budget deficit? Fixed (as long as you ignore one-time factors, believe in the CBO's fairytale projections, and pretend that entitlements are not exploding). Europe? Fixed. (except that Greece, Spain, Italy etc aren't fixed and the European banking system is insolvent). Japan? ROFL. Yeah, doubling the monetary base in two years will cause inflation but keep interest rates low at the same time. And China. No problems there; the Commukleptocrats would tell us if there were.

    Btw, we have inflation now. Online goods inflation is running at 2% according to MIT. And services like health care and education are much higher. Sorry, I don't buy the BS coming out of the BLS. You can blather on all you want about falling commodity prices. The fact is, even with a rising dollar, consumer prices are rising. Why? Because even QE flows directly into bank reserves, the money supply is still growing at a rate faster than the real growth rate of the economy. That's what happens when you monetize a trillion dollar budget deficit.
    Jun 21 01:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Recovery [View article]
    Actually, quite unimpressive. Consider this chart...http://bit.ly/V2vrGG

    When accounting for inflation, retail sales have roughly recovered to pre-recession levels. But when accounting for population for growth and inflation, we see that retail sales are still well below the pre-recession peak.

    We'll see if the current spending splurge by consumers is sustainable in the face of tax increases. The increase in the payroll tax in particular is going to hit the profligate masses especially hard.
    Jan 15 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Massive Dilution Coming For National Bank Of Greece Shareholders [View article]
    Thanks for your research, SR. I haven't been following NBG recently and am trying to get back up to speed. What is status of Finansbank and how much of a value cushion does it provide?
    Jan 7 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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