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  • Apple: Initial Projections For Q3  [View article]
    Thanks Bill. I am giving a bit more upside on ipad. I think the China number will increase by a significant amount.

    However, with all of the bearish sentiment I can't help but ponder what the "street" really expects. Specifically, my current number is $11.77 give or take a bit. That beats guidance, but not the high end of the analysts estimates (which I understand the high is $12.51). It seems we are in this game, that Apple needs to blow out all analysts for the street to take notice. Even with all this is going on in the world it seems the trading range should be 575-600, On a PE basis still less than the average S&P and less than IBM or, for that matter ACN ( a consulting firm that appears more subject to revenue risk than Apple). But it is what it is.
    May 22, 2012. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Initial Projections For Q3  [View article]
    Thanks Bill, good article. My back of the envelope analysis indicates $11.77. So we are very close. Two questions.

    First - between now and the date of your final QIII analysis what factors are you considering that might change your forecast?

    Second- Any thoughts on what Apple will have to report in QIII EPS tp satisfy the street?
    May 22, 2012. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard The Apple Train? Not So Fast  [View article]
    Guys and gals there is so much noise and conflicting views on Apple I a getting a headache with it. Sure, there could be some worldwide happening that cause Apple and all other stock to crater- or not.

    Ultimately, the trend is your friend and the long term trend of Apple (backed by solid fundamentals) is still up. Anything can happen today or tomorrow. But if your waiting for Apple to fall to 450 you might as well sell everything now and put your cash under the mattress.

    I for one agree with the others that believe the MZ and his well-orchestrated FB IPO ultimately is the main reason Apple PPS fell to 530. The TTM PE of 12.92 at a 530 price was cheap. Still cheap at 560. Right now there is no economic reason Apple should have a PE less than IBM or, for that matter, ACN.

    I also agree with those that point out Apple's huge and still growing cash hoard. Apple could buy both of these.

    My long term view is that communication and entertainment is in the early innings and Apple has the bases loaded with no outs. In 3, 5 and 10 years communication technology will make major leaps forward just like it has in the preceeding 3, 5 and 10 year periods. No one is positioned better than Apple with it cash, iconic brand name, IP and operational and marketing excellence to be the leader. TC said two very important things on the QII CC.

    First, demand in China is "staggering"

    Second, "mind-blowing products" in the pipeline.

    I believe him.

    While I fully understand that a stock split does nothing to increase intrinsic value, IF Apple was trading at $56.00 verus $560 we would not be seeing all of the "sky is falling" articles on SA.

    There are many ways to explain Apple's recent price behavior, but at least one of the reasons is the many articles and naysayers that keep investors nervous.

    Today's opening (Tuesday) will probably be up, followed by a mild fall back as some people who bought in recently between 530 and 550 take their profits.

    With MACD starting to show a positive sign it will take a lot of convition to sell Apple short a this time.

    The article got my attention to read, but nothing really new here. Since you are long Apple why not write an article of why you are long? If you really believe Apple will fall why not sell short?

    Who are you guys (or gals) anyway??
    May 22, 2012. 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Catalysts That Could Push Apple Beyond Its Current Trading Range  [View article]
    John, While I agreed with your article when posted on SA. I think Apple's price behavior has many of us exacerbated at this point. I know there are lot of naysayers, but nevertheless, who would have thought that Apple's PPS would be at 530 (less than the close on 4/24 earnings day announcement) Other than the much larger market cap there is no reason Apple should be at a PE that is less than IBM or ACN for that matter. What would be your thougths on the trading range if you were writing the article today? Perhaps an updated article is in order. I am not being critical, but it appears the facts have changed.

    I am now looking at Fibonacci support levels and the 200 day
    SMA. PPS has broke the first two levels of Fibonacci retracement (albeit only a bit on the second level) and the third level of support is about 500.

    I know your article did leave room for the possibility (now the actuality) that 560 might not hold and PPS could fall to the 500- 520 range. I think a PPS is seriously oversold, but we are at 530 as of Friday. The 14 day RSI is at 30 so we might get a bounce off the RSI soon. Unless of course, Greece (the cradle of Western Civilization) is determined to end Western Civilization.
    May 21, 2012. 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One Indicator Is Flashing A Clear Buy Signal  [View article]
    Still lots of unknowns on the factor's affecting Apple's PPS. One observation (and there many ways to look at Apple's PPS) is that at a PE of 12.8 it's PE is well below IBM and ACN (Accenture) and both of these are below the S&P average. And not a company in the world has the balance sheet strength of Apple.

    The question when will buyers start buying Apple at this incrediblly low price based on fundamentals.
    May 19, 2012. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple  [View article]
    I have vistied 3 Apple stores in the Chicago area and all indications are that sales are going well. Stores are always full to crowded. And I think sales in China will do very well.
    May 17, 2012. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Miss Earnings Estimates  [View article]
    I thought I would check in here. Can't believe this still going on.
    One last time for me - Damn it Paulo go read the QIV conference call again. TC was practically shouting sales in China would be great - he called it "staggering". Did you listen to the CC, did you understand what a conservative guy like TC was saying and is saying.

    If you don't know then don't pontificate. Do not bother to reply, I am done here.
    May 12, 2012. 02:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet  [View article]
    Mr. Wu - I am neither "irrationally exuberant" or an Apple naysayer or Apple basher. I have a long term bullish view on Apple's prospects, but I like to read well-reasoned articles that have a bearish perspective. I do this to challenge my investment thesis. Since I mostly invest in Apple via option plays, I don't try to gauge where the stock will be, but rather I try to gauge where it will not be during the option period.

    Nevertheless, your article fails to provide much input.

    Point 4 and 5 are irrelevant and not worthy of comment.

    Points 1-5. Your points are just a speculative opinion.

    One point you should note that even if Apple's growth slows to zero (unlikely) Apple' s cash will grow in several years to $400 per share. This alone will propel an increase in PPS. This does assume that Apple's management utilizes its cash to increase shareholder value - a reasonable assumption.

    If your goal in writing this article was to say something significant on the most widely studied stock on the planet - you failed.

    If your goal was get your photo on the web and solicit comments - you succeeded.
    May 11, 2012. 11:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ponder The Future Market's Performance And The Apple Bubble  [View article]
    Hola Senor.

    I understand why chartist might have a bearish outlook on Apple. I am bullish on Apple, but with significant positions being long Apple stock and a variety of bullish option plays I try to be objective when reading opinions contray to my bullish view. I am finding that most of what is written about Apple is mostly 'noise".

    While there is much to support a bullish view, I point out two facts..

    1. Even with the recently announced dividend and stock buyback,
    Apple will continue to build cash at termendous rate. Assuming
    that Apple management will use is cash in a way to enhance
    shareholder value ( a reasonable assumption) Apple cash
    generataing capability will propel and fuel increase in PPS. At the
    current rate of cash flow Apple will have $400 million in cash
    in a few years - even IF Apple had no growth(not likely)

    2. Apple is now a worldwide "iconic" brand. While this is a more
    subjective factor it is real. We are in the early innings (perhaps
    the first inning) of further and rapid advanced in consumer
    communication and entertainment technology. Apple has the
    resources (intellectual and cash) to be on the forefront of this
    major trend.
    May 11, 2012. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction?  [View article]
    Keep in mind that TTM EPS is also "parabolic". And cash continues to build. Even with the dividend and the share buyback Apple will increase cash. Even a major market correction or what is not likely to affect worldwide sales of Apple products.
    May 9, 2012. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction?  [View article]
    muoio - What is your point? Got something to say?
    May 9, 2012. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Price Is Back To Pre-Earnings Levels  [View article]
    Good perspective. Keep in mind that sales in China were a surprise to some analysts. I project sales in China will continue to be strong and growing with good margins across the product linep.
    May 9, 2012. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 28 Big Reasons Apple Will Fall  [View article]
    Ok - now we're getting somewhere. You say Apple will not reach a trillion dollar market cap. Ok Mr. Prophet, when will Apple make its precipitious decline. At what market cap will it peak? What are the Chart "gods' telling you that they are not telling us mere mortals.
    Please oh Chart Prophet enlighten us.

    The gods of disciplined fundamental analysis are telling me that QIII will be about the same as QII.(Much better if China Mobile comes on line)
    May 4, 2012. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am A Long-Term Apple Bear  [View article]
    Hey Rocco,

    I don;'t find that you answered my question that you sold out Apple at about $320 - I think in April 2011. Is that correct?
    May 3, 2012. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 28 Big Reasons Apple Will Fall  [View article]
    Yoni boy, you are getting a bit nasty with the "idiot" talk. Perhaps you should post on the Yahoo site where that kind of engaging language is the norm.

    Ken N
    May 3, 2012. 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment