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KenNagle

KenNagle
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  • Seadrill's Growth Story Continues Due To Newbuilds, Industry Strength [View article]
    Thanks for both the article, the Seadrill presentation and your reply.

    Regarding your points on your response to me.

    1. Of course, while we can only speculate the affect on SDRL price
    per share due to Cypress, I agree it will not affect SDRL.
    2. Seadrill's debt load seems to be an ongoing concern by some
    people. I tend to view Seadrill as I would an MLP. It seems
    to have a track record of selling "older" rigs for more than book
    value.
    3. I think Seadrill is a part of several of the energy ETFs and when
    energy prices fall Seadrill takes a hit.

    I did not see the presentation before your posting. Glad to see that they came on strong about the current dividend being a floor.

    I believe what they say about the current dividend being a floor. IF the market comes to believe also than a fair price for Seadrill is north of $40.
    Mar 20, 2013. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Growth Story Continues Due To Newbuilds, Industry Strength [View article]
    Author - What is your take on the recent weakness in price per share; particularly the last couple of days? Stock price was bouncing around and then down fairly significantly.

    My experience has been when you see this type of action with no hard specific news there is some inside "leak".
    Mar 20, 2013. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's True Opportunities In 2013 [View article]
    You mention $150 billion in cash by the end of the September quarter. Apple reported$137 billion at the end of the 1st Quarter. Even with the dividend and the share buy back I think cash will be getting close to $150 billion by the end of the second quarter.
    Mar 20, 2013. 12:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill, Transocean And Ensco: Which Is The Best Bet For Now? [View article]
    Anyone have any thoughts on why SDRL got hit so hard last couple of days?
    Mar 20, 2013. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investing In Apple Is Riskier Than You Think [View article]
    I think the coming years will bring termendous innovations in consumer (and enterprise) communication and entertainment and I belive further that no company is positioned better than Apple to be the spearhead.
    Mar 20, 2013. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill, Transocean And Ensco: Which Is The Best Bet For Now? [View article]
    Valuations of public company are always difficult since each company has a different set of circumstances. Seadrill has several strengths that you do not mention. Most modern fleet, better management, new deepwater. harsh environment rigs coming on line as well as an excellent backlog. It also has a history of selling it "older" rigs for more than book value.

    I tend to look at SDRL as I would an MLP. Nothing I have seen or read thus far changes my mind about this view.
    Mar 19, 2013. 03:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Prospects Make Seadrill An Attractive Pick [View article]
    I don't get today's poor price action given Seadrill's firm backlog. Is this related to the Cypress situation or something more fundamental? Any thoughts anyone?
    Mar 19, 2013. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Money Back: A Desperate Act? [View article]
    Nicholas - By the end of this quarter Apple will likely have $145 billion in cash and its cash is continuing to grow my the minute. Right now Apple is the best cash generation company on the planet with more cash than it needs. Giving more cash back to shareholders is not an act of desperation.
    Mar 19, 2013. 10:17 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy (NTI -2.5%) is downgraded to Hold from Buy at Cowen, which says NTI is nearing fair value with the benefits of its Bakken/Canadian crude slate already embedded in current valuation and given current peak cycle conditions. Concern over the rising cost of ethanol RINs could mount in 2014 upon increased ethanol blending requirements. [View news story]
    What Cowen is saying might or might not be a good prognostication. I for one am getting weary of what seems like rapid fire upgrades and downgrades by analysts who seem to get it right or wrong with equal frequency.
    Mar 18, 2013. 02:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $420 A Share Could Have Marked The Bottom [View article]
    Putting aside the potential for further market disrutping innovations (which should not be discounted) Apple should continue to grow revenues and profits with new market penetration and product refreshes IMO. Cash is king and Apple will conitnue to increase its cash for years to come even with an enhanced dividend and/or stock buyback. While the market is currently does not appear to put much value on Apple's cash (probably about $145 billion at the end of March and growing by the minute) at some point soon Apple's share price will reflect Apple cash and its termendous ability to generate cash. Right now Apple can easily double its dividend and stock buyback and still contineue to grow cash - this fact puts a floor on the price and will tend to drive share price up.
    Mar 17, 2013. 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Galaxy S4: A Gift To Apple Shareholders [View article]
    Seattle - if you apply your discount analysis to the stock market as a whole or to most other stocks in the S&P 500 the market as well as many other well known stocks would be trading much lower.

    Assuming no sizeable increase in the dividend rate it 20 years Apple cash hoard would be approaching a trillion dollars even at a zero growth.
    Mar 16, 2013. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Do You Hear The Crickets? [View article]
    Right - there is too much being written and said on Apple that is a rehash of what has been said. I think Apple is forming a base at current levels. Right now the market is not giving much value to the cash hoard which is growing my the minute. Right now, Apple provides Dividends, Value and considerable Growth potential. Despite its large market cap, I think it is all the negative sentiment (fueled to a large extent by the media) which brought Apple to a PE that sans cash is less than Yahoo. Unless, the market believes that profits and cash flow are in a declining treat ( I don't think so) a PE of 10 or less is not rational.

    Apple is in the unique position that it can double its dividend (not saying it will do this) and still increase cash at a termendous rate.

    At its current share price Apple is trading a 3.3 times its cash balance. If the dividend stays the same or only increase slightly cash should be in the $160 Billion range by the end of the fiscal year. That would indicate a share price of about $530.

    If Apple surprises the market with a substantial dividend increase the PE multiple will likely increase.
    Mar 16, 2013. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Being Psychologically Crushed By Samsung [View article]
    I think that all Samsung showed today is that it is no Apple and its strength lies in patent infringement and copying Apple.
    Mar 15, 2013. 06:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Galaxy S4: A Gift To Apple Shareholders [View article]
    After much hoopla Samsung proved to the world that it is best at copying and patent infringement and it is no Apple. I think today's price action showed that that is what the market thinks.
    Mar 15, 2013. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's a good time to buy 2015 Apple (AAPL) LEAPs at a $500 strike price, thinks Bill Miller, who went on CNBC to make a bull case for the fruit company. Miller observes Apple now trades at a lower forward EV/EBITDA multiple than Safeway, Kroger, and H-P, and expects the company to "do something fairly dramatic on capital allocation." Others have also argued in favor of buying Apple LEAPs to gain leverage. The Jan. '15 $500 LEAPs currently have an ask of $45 (they rose sharply following Miller's recommendation). [View news story]
    I think today is the day that Apple begins its comeback. Samsung gave its best shot and all that it could come up with after much hoopla is a silly looking phone that. Big bad Samsung showed that it while it is good at infringining on patents and copying it is no Apple.
    Mar 15, 2013. 06:32 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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