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KenNagle

KenNagle
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  • Seadrill: Hope For The Future [View article]
    Many folks on SA commenting on SDRL make a point of the question of falling oil prices as being a potential negative catalyst. If oil prices fall SDRL' s stock price will be impacted since it is in the overal energy space. BUT, I think a fact that is missed on this is that the major oil exploration companies set their exploration budgets several years in advance and don't change the exploration budgets (at least too much) due to the inevitable ups and downs of short term oil prices. And I think that developing countries seeking more energy independence will continue to fund offshore exploration regardless of short-term swing in oil prices. IMHO.
    Mar 12, 2013. 03:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The potential of West Africa’s emerging pre-salt play and big gas discoveries off East Africa are set to drive an 18% leap in annual drilling expenditure to more than $17B across the region over the next five years, GBI Research predicts. Rig contractors such as Seadrill (SDRL) and Ensco (ESV) operating modern units designed for Africa’s deepwater plays are set to cash in on the prospecting surge. [View news story]
    Ever since the double dividend SDRL can't seem to get any traction despite mostly good news on backlog and new rigs coming online.
    Mar 12, 2013. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +1.5%) has shot higher in afternoon trading. Rumors about a special dividend appear to be the trigger. (earlier: I, II[View news story]
    I think a special dividend would be a bad move - a one time shot that would send the wrong signal to the market.
    Mar 11, 2013. 04:04 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Use Of Apple's Cash: An Apple Credit Card [View article]
    Time that this subject be revisited. I think an iCard is a logical step for Apple in changing electronic communication. By the way, look at the PE value of VISA and MC and the income statements.

    I speculate that in the their internal analysis of strategic threats the "possibility" of an iCard is # 1.

    All the potential problems identified above can be outsourced - with Apple providing the capital and the technology.
    Mar 7, 2013. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    At today's closing prices - sans cash, Apple is cheaper than Yahoo and Yahoo does not pay a divided. Unless someone feels that Apple's revenues and profits will decline substantially it is cheap.
    Mar 7, 2013. 07:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    Antonio - get real here. I think you got caught up trying to count how many angels are on a pin head. I am more than familiar with the valuation techniques you are using and some of the comment above point out the errors. I only add for emphasis that using the techniques you use a lot of companies (like Amazon) have little or no value.

    If you look at the "liquidation" value of Apple - cash - patents - brand name - PP&E - retail outlets - .... Apple could be "liquidated" right now for much more than its current market cap.

    At today's closing prices; ... sans cash of $145 per share and growing by the minute - Apple is valued by the market equivalent to Yahoo. Please use your valuation methodology and put a value on Yahoo.
    Mar 6, 2013. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources Benefited Greatly From Hedges In 2012 [View article]
    Excellent article. Thanks for the effort.
    Mar 6, 2013. 02:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Massive Underperformance Of Apple Vs. Amazon [View article]
    For what it is worth I have had considerable M&A experience and experience valuing private companies. IMHO AMZN's current market valuation makes no sense whatsoever.

    I read an article recently where some guru postulated that the reason AMZN's valued so highly vs Apple is that Amazon's profits are so low that no one else wants to get into the business; and, on the other hand, Apple makes so much money everyone wants in. Talk about the world being upside down.

    Right Amazon PE is in the stratasphere - it can't last - and when it comes down it will be brutal - just like to tulip bubble.

    I think Amazon is trading under the greater fool theory that someone will pay more for it than I did.
    Mar 5, 2013. 06:33 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Already (Essentially) A Private Company [View article]
    Good article and I share some of the sentiment, but there is so much being written and talked about regarding Apple that little seems to make sense anymore on its price behavior. It went up when all logic indicated it should not have and went down to a price logic indicates it should not be. I think that right now APPL is being valued on a PE basis (sans cash) at roughly equivilent to YHOO.
    Mar 5, 2013. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zero Growth ... Really? [View article]
    Good fact-based article. Right now Apple price is driven by short-term sentiment and most obviously and painfully the sentiment has been less that stellar. The ultimate true measure of a business is its ability to generate cash and right now no company is doing a better of job at this than Apple. I think the current dividend rate puts a bottom on price per share and I expect the dividend will increase this month.
    Mar 5, 2013. 10:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Apple To Waddle And Quack [View article]
    I think the question of whether is a growth or value stock is one of perspective. To consider Apple to be a value stock is to accept the proposition that Apple has no major product innovations on the horizon. I don't think that is the case. Apple has an abundance of financial and intellectual power to call on. Not so with the other companies you note.
    Feb 21, 2013. 11:40 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Set To Rise [View article]
    I agree with the thesis, but it is time for TC and Apple to start kicking some butt and speak and act like they give a damn about the stock price.
    Feb 14, 2013. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Downtime Has Negative Earnings Impact, But Positive Revenue Developments Remain [View article]
    Good article. I doubt the downtime will impact the dividend, and it is only a short-term issue. I hope the shortsigted folks sell and bring the price down so I can add to an already strong position at a bargain price.
    Feb 5, 2013. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost flat earnings and a disappointing forecast from Apple (AAPL) leave a few casualties in Japanese trading today: Softbank (SFTBY.PK) - a Japanese carrier of the iPhone - is down 0.9%, Sharp (SHCAY.PK) and Foster Electric - both of which make parts for the phone - dropped 1.5% and 1%, respectively. [View news story]
    IMHO the after hours drop is an overreaction from retail that were expecting a blowout quarter. PPS will be up in the morning.
    Jan 23, 2013. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Selling Apple Stock [View article]
    Thanks for the "history lesson" and the suggestion. You seem to be assuming that Apple management is asleep at the switch. By most accounts Apple has the best core products in growing markets. I continue to believe that in the coming years we will see termendous innovations in consumer and enterprise communication and entertainment technology. No company is positioned better than Apple to continue to be the spearhead.
    Dec 17, 2012. 06:12 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
289 Comments
477 Likes