Zulauf: Eurozone On Track To Becoming Shortest Currency Union In History [View article]
If you had followed his recent advice to invest in Spain you would have caught the 65% rise it's share market has has just had. He also stated in March 2009 market had bottomed. I find his advice remarkably good.
A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls While S&P 500 Jumps [View article]
Thanks. Very interesting. Are there any other intermarket analyses you find helpful to give early warning of SP500 behavior...like 10yr US bonds or copper/gold relationship?
Reading The Economic Data With Clear Glasses [View article]
For those that are confident of the market due to reasonable PE levels please read a little more about PEG, because with GDP growth at 2% PE should be significantly lower and so the market is running on fumes.
ECRI's WLI Rises To 33-Week High, Growth Rate No Longer Negative [View article]
Wow, not a lot of love for ECRI. I would counter by saying if the stock market rises while the economy tanks one is definitely wrong and a correction up or down is imminent. Guess that will be after the election. And they tell us the Fed is politically independent. Haha!
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
May be good for APPL but is it good for society? Could this just be the 21st century's version of Caesar's 'bread and circuses' that kept the masses from having the time for thinking deeply about anything important, while the Roman Empire fell apart? Perhaps I'm just showing my age - afterall I don't have or need an iphone either? I have to keep reminding myself that I believe in freedom and in a free world people are allowed to fritter their lives away - it's their choice! But when they get older I do hope they won't be asking those that didn't waste their lives to pay for their retirement! Perhaps they might use these new devices for education, greater productivity and contribution to the common good and setting up businesses that employ others. I live in hope.
Did ECRI Get It Wrong With Their September Recession Call? [View article]
Nomura the Japanese brokers/analysts have just reported an extensive study they have done to suggest much of recent US economic indicator improvement is an error in the way US calculates Seasonal Adjustments which will be removed from data in the new year showing that US is nearly as sick as the rest of the world. They even report that the Fed is aware of the problem but has not bothered to change the calculations yet or make the public aware of the problems with the reported figures. [How unlike them!!] If this is correct it adds weight to ECRI's call.
Does The Market Indicate We're Due For Another Period Like 2008? [View article]
I sort of agree with Flash9...the rush to big names is typical not just of bear markets but also of bull tops after the first shorters sell and the less farsighted investors deny the coming recession but for safety's sake invest in bigger names in a bull trap move. I clearly see the topping process everywhere I look and yet it escapes others, including some very well known analysts. Time will tell who is correct.
Well done Stanley. I couldn't believe the statement 'no evidence'. I follow all sorts of indicators but all anyone has to do is go to OECD's LEIs. The only country left that's not falling is the US, which has stopped growing. So if the author thinks US can grow while rest of world goes into recession then it will only be nominal growth from Bernanke money printing. Anyway Stanley your professional history in the industry should support our contentions but of course the final arbiter is that fickle beast - the market. Time will tell.
ECRI's Bold Recession Call: Even Expert Forecasts Can't Be Trusted [View article]
Hi Apauly
The LEI's the FED already uses were initially developed by George Moore, who eventually came across what he considered more reliable indicators and decided to get paid for his advice and started ECRI. Ecri would be happy to sell the info privately -not for public consumption - to FED as do this with other companies. Licence for 6 people costs USD$300,000 per yr. I suppose those of us using Conference Board get the value we pay for. It's free and close to useless telling us either the wrong thing which is corrected later or the right thing but well after the fact so unhelpful for anything but long-term investing in a steadily improving economy with positive demographics - like from 1982-1998..
ECRI: Economic Growth Falls, Triggering Recession Call [View article]
ECRI has many indicators that Conf Board and US Fed don't use/announce. But one thing they do use is the Coincident-lagging indicator spread which has been falling since Feb March 2011, even before Japan's meltdown. Look for yourself. [ http://bloom.bg/rmdI1m ] Short of going nuclear with QE+++ recession is coming to 1st Euro, then US then China and the world. Sorry ECRI is very late but right.
Explaining The ECB's Latest Program [View article]
It's all worthy of a Shakespearean farce...'Much Ado About Debt' perhaps? None of it is a solution just short-term tricks, throwing good money after bad to buy time for Euro politicians to try to find a solution that keeps the Euro together. It's bad economics and it will end with things worse than if they took their lumps quickly. The first loss in this case would have been the cheapest.
In Reinhardt and Rogoff the tipping point is debt to GDP of greater than 90%. Well we're there. Historically that knocks 1% off GDP growth. Sagflation here we come! Thanks Bernanke. Now Ben it's back to your ivory university tower.
On the Fence, Watching for an Apocalypse [View article]
Hey Vuke
what's this...'Really, we should hope the FED plan for an inflationary burst mitigates the debt and trade problems enough to restore stability and fiscal self-discipline.'
doesn't your resume say...'As a traditionlist a strong belief that honest money is an essential component in the foundation of freedom, prosperity and the pursuit of happiness. Fraudulent manipulation of currency or other financial instruments should be a crime, punishable by courts.'
Now you hope Bernanke's funny money will avert the 'crash'?
Zulauf: Eurozone On Track To Becoming Shortest Currency Union In History [View article]
A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls While S&P 500 Jumps [View article]
Reading The Economic Data With Clear Glasses [View article]
ECRI's WLI Rises To 33-Week High, Growth Rate No Longer Negative [View article]
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
Did ECRI Get It Wrong With Their September Recession Call? [View article]
Does The Market Indicate We're Due For Another Period Like 2008? [View article]
Arguing For The Coming Recession [View article]
ECRI's Bold Recession Call: Even Expert Forecasts Can't Be Trusted [View article]
The LEI's the FED already uses were initially developed by George Moore, who eventually came across what he considered more reliable indicators and decided to get paid for his advice and started ECRI. Ecri would be happy to sell the info privately -not for public consumption - to FED as do this with other companies. Licence for 6 people costs USD$300,000 per yr. I suppose those of us using Conference Board get the value we pay for. It's free and close to useless telling us either the wrong thing which is corrected later or the right thing but well after the fact so unhelpful for anything but long-term investing in a steadily improving economy with positive demographics - like from 1982-1998..
ECRI: Economic Growth Falls, Triggering Recession Call [View article]
Explaining The ECB's Latest Program [View article]
What Correlates With Bond Yields? [View article]
Nice work, that helps.
PS typo alert:
The Fed series DDII10 is a constant maturity adjusted 10 year TIP rate....actually coded DFII10
What Correlates With Bond Yields? [View article]
On the Fence, Watching for an Apocalypse [View article]
what's this...'Really, we should hope the FED plan for an inflationary burst mitigates the debt and trade problems enough to restore stability and fiscal self-discipline.'
doesn't your resume say...'As a traditionlist a strong belief that honest money is an essential component in the foundation of freedom, prosperity and the pursuit of happiness. Fraudulent manipulation of currency or other financial instruments should be a crime, punishable by courts.'
Now you hope Bernanke's funny money will avert the 'crash'?
Seems inconsistent?
Spain's Deficit Problems May Get Worse Next Week [View article]